Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 6' 0" |
| Weight | 205 lb |
| Debut | 2021-07-17 |
Player profile / Boston Red Sox
Jarren Duran
LF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 0", 205 lb · Age 29
Club Boston Red Sox
Position LF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 735 | 111 | 191 | 21 | 34 | .285 | .342 | .492 | .834 |
| 2025 | 696 | 86 | 159 | 16 | 24 | .256 | .332 | .442 | .774 |
| 2026 | 384 | 42 | 67 | 13 | 14 | .193 | .256 | .346 | .602 |
| 6 Seasons | 2512 | 325 | 583 | 63 | 105 | .256 | .317 | .436 | .753 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
60
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.340 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.310 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.287
0.298
0.310
0.322
0.333
wOBA
0.264
0.278
0.294
0.309
0.323
ISO
0.143
0.156
0.171
0.185
0.198
K%
24.6%
25.9%
27.2%
28.6%
29.8%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.0%
78
Exit velocity88.9
59
Hard-hit%39.3%
51
-30 vs proj
xBA0.337
66
xSLG0.572
70
xwOBA0.294
35
-40 vs proj
BB%7.8%
39
Bat speed73.0
89
K%29.6%
17
-32 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · LF
26
Arm Strength91.7 · LF
38
Outs Above Avg6.0 · LF
97
Range Runs5.5 · LF
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · LF
86
Bolts9.0 · LF
66
SB Success Rate91.7% · LF
82
Sprint Speed29.2 · LF
93
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.9% · rebadged research
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4% · rebadged research
29
Correct Decisions61.8% · rebadged research
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · borderline
93
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
82
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.260 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.310 · insufficient sample
94
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
26
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
178 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.043 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.043 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Duran’s wOBA sits at 0.294, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.294 — a gap of 0.000, 0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 399 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin, Konnor PIT · R | 0.79 | Pull ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Burger, Jake TEX · R | 0.78 | xwOBA on contactWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Smith, Cam HOU · R | 0.69 | Max exit velocitySprint speed | Player · Projection |
| Rodríguez, Julio SEA · R | 0.68 | Max exit velocityWalk rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-05-19 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.336 xwOBA | 17 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ KC1 HR | 2 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | HR, 3B, 2 K |
| 2026-04-20 vs DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | K |
| 2026-04-17 vs DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K, R, SB |
| 2026-04-15 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-5 | 3 K, R |
| 2026-04-14 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K |