Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 6' 0" |
| Weight | 205 lb |
| Debut | 2021-07-17 |
Player profile / Boston Red Sox
Jarren Duran
LF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 0", 205 lb · Age 29
Club Boston Red Sox
Position LF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 735 | 111 | 191 | 21 | 34 | .285 | .342 | .492 | .834 |
| 2025 | 696 | 86 | 159 | 16 | 24 | .256 | .332 | .442 | .774 |
| 2026 | 541 | 61 | 102 | 19 | 18 | .207 | .263 | .368 | .631 |
| 6 Seasons | 2669 | 344 | 618 | 69 | 109 | .255 | .315 | .435 | .750 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
65
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.340 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.301 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.312 |
| Observed weight | 72% |
xwOBA
0.291
0.301
0.312
0.323
0.332
wOBA
0.275
0.286
0.299
0.312
0.324
ISO
0.149
0.160
0.172
0.184
0.195
K%
23.8%
24.9%
26.0%
27.2%
28.2%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
72
Exit velocity89.0
63
Hard-hit%41.6%
65
-19 vs proj
xBA0.342
75
xSLG0.564
70
xwOBA0.301
47
-35 vs proj
BB%6.9%
32
Bat speed73.0
89
K%27.2%
26
-25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · LF
25
Arm Strength92.0 · LF
40
Outs Above Avg4.0 · LF
94
Range Runs4.9 · LF
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.4 · LF
92
Bolts10.0 · LF
65
SB Success Rate87.5% · LF
74
Sprint Speed29.0 · LF
89
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.5% · rebadged research
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5% · rebadged research
29
Correct Decisions62.9% · rebadged research
21
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
23
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · borderline
90
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
38
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · insufficient sample
39
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341 · validated
44
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
28
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
234 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.035 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.037 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Duran’s wOBA sits at 0.299, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.301 — a gap of 0.001, 0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 562 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burger, Jake TEX · R | 0.77 | xwOBA on contactOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Crews, Dylan WSH · R | 0.77 | Walk rateSwing length | Player · Projection |
| Smith, Cam HOU · R | 0.76 | Max exit velocityGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Rodríguez, Julio SEA · R | 0.75 | Max exit velocityBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-05-19 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 23 | 2026-09-01 | 5 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +2.559 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.336 xwOBA | 17 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2 K, R |
| 2026-05-20 @ KC1 HR | 2 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | HR, 3B, 2 K |
| 2026-04-20 vs DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | K |
| 2026-04-17 vs DET0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K, R, SB |
| 2026-04-15 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-5 | 3 K, R |