Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	684	121	136	22	35	.231	.322	.428	.750
2025	642	107	146	31	32	.259	.343	.541	.884
2026	593	83	123	19	21	.241	.337	.470	.807
5 Seasons	2679	440	593	101	144	.254	.340	.486	.826

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03

84

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

81

Defense4 metrics

51

Speed4 metrics

93

Plate skills10 metrics

41

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03

xwOBA preseason	0.347
xwOBA current pace	0.343
xwOBA rolling p50	0.344
Observed weight	73%

xwOBA

0.322 0.333 0.344 0.356 0.366

wOBA

0.341 0.353 0.366 0.379 0.391

ISO

0.206 0.218 0.231 0.244 0.255

K%

20.1% 21.0% 22.1% 23.1% 24.1%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%7.7%

85

Exit velocity91.8

92

Hard-hit%48.6%

90

xBA0.335

70

xSLG0.591

77

xwOBA0.343

87

BB%11.7%

86

Bat speed74.0

94

K%22.3%

52

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-4.7 · RF

1

Arm Strength87.2 · RF

9

Outs Above Avg10.0 · RF

98

Range Runs9.3 · RF

96

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs8.4 · RF

100

Bolts54.0 · RF

94

SB Success Rate90.0% · RF

81

Sprint Speed29.7 · RF

97

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-03

Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.2% · rebadged research

65

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4% · rebadged research

59

Correct Decisions66.4% · rebadged research

54

Resists FastballwOBA 0.390 · validated

3

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104

67

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.322 · borderline

8

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample

4

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample

51

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.307 · insufficient sample

91

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.387 · validated

6

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Corbin Carroll's tools (90) outpace production (85) by 5 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

250 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.9σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.366

xwOBA (deserved)0.343

Carroll’s wOBA sits at 0.366, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.343 — a gap of 0.023, -0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 609 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Hernández, Heriberto MIA · R	0.67	Fly-ball rateIsolated power	Player · Projection
Abrams, CJ WSH · L	0.64	xwOBA on contactIsolated power	Player · Projection
Burger, Jake TEX · R	0.61	Swing lengthBat speed	Player · Projection
Swanson, Dansby CHC · R	0.60	Sweet-spot rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	9	2026-08-23	Disciplined swing decisions drove the score
Fielding	27	2026-08-31	5 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.176

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.357 xwOBA \| 23 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-3 \| 3B, 2B, 2 BB
2026-04-17 vs TOR0 HR \| 1 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| BB, 2 K, RBI
2026-04-15 @ BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 2B, BB, K
2026-04-14 @ BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-13 @ BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2 K

Age	26
Height	5' 10"
Weight	180 lb
Debut	2022-08-29

xwOBA Δ	-0.014
wOBA Δ	+0.009

Hitter Projections 20260.357 xwOBA \| 23 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ ATL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-3 \| 3B, 2B, 2 BB
2026-04-17 vs TOR0 HR \| 1 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| BB, 2 K, RBI
2026-04-15 @ BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 2B, BB, K
2026-04-14 @ BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-13 @ BAL0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2 K

Corbin Carroll

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail