Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	579	68	134	29	1	.250	.301	.460	.761
2025	376	43	84	16	1	.236	.269	.419	.688
2026	528	55	113	23	3	.234	.297	.421	.718
6 Seasons	2248	262	506	111	6	.244	.297	.458	.755

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-02

75

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

68

Defense2 metrics

67

Speed2 metrics

38

Plate skills10 metrics

40

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-02

xwOBA preseason	0.317
xwOBA current pace	0.312
xwOBA rolling p50	0.313
Observed weight	71%

xwOBA

0.293 0.302 0.313 0.324 0.334

wOBA

0.309 0.322 0.335 0.349 0.361

ISO

0.168 0.179 0.191 0.204 0.215

K%

23.8% 24.9% 26.1% 27.3% 28.4%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-02

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%7.6%

83

Exit velocity90.2

80

Hard-hit%47.3%

87

xBA0.330

63

xSLG0.592

77

xwOBA0.312

58

BB%7.7%

39 +22 vs proj

Bat speed73.9

93

K%26.4%

31

Defense · percentile strip

Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B

72

Range Runs0.8 · 1B

62

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.7 · 1B

28

Sprint Speed27.3 · 1B

47

SB Success Rate66.7% · 1B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-02

Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.8% · rebadged research

27

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1% · rebadged research

61

Correct Decisions63.7% · rebadged research

25

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · borderline

76

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97

34

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · insufficient sample

14

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.327 · validated thin sample

2

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.314 · insufficient sample

83

Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated

71

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.395 · validated

3

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jake Burger's tools (95) outpace production (85) by 10 points. Primary finding: elite raw contact quality undermined by swing decisions — the bat is dangerous when it connects.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

226 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.9σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.335

xwOBA (deserved)0.312

Burger’s wOBA sits at 0.335, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.312 — a gap of 0.023, -0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 542 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Duran, Jarren BOS · L	0.77	Pull ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
Basallo, Samuel BAL · L	0.73	In-zone contactFly-ball rate	Player · Projection
Walker, Christian HOU · R	0.73	Walk rateFly-ball rate	Player · Projection
Alvarez, Francisco NYM · R	0.72	Fly-ball rateWhiff rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	5	2026-08-24	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	13	2026-08-25	3 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -0.901

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.320 xwOBA \| 22 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, K
2026-05-20 @ COL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| HR, RBI, R
2026-04-17 @ SEA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	3-5 \| K, RBI, R
2026-04-15 @ ATH1 HR \| 3 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| HR, K, 3 RBI
2026-04-14 @ ATH0 HR \| 1 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Age	30
Height	6' 0"
Weight	230 lb
Debut	2021-07-02

xwOBA Δ	-0.009
wOBA Δ	+0.015

Hitter Projections 20260.320 xwOBA \| 22 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ ATH0 HR \| 0 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| 2B, BB, K
2026-05-20 @ COL1 HR \| 1 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	2-5 \| HR, RBI, R
2026-04-17 @ SEA0 HR \| 1 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	3-5 \| K, RBI, R
2026-04-15 @ ATH1 HR \| 3 RBI / 5 Ch \| 0 E	1-2 \| HR, K, 3 RBI
2026-04-14 @ ATH0 HR \| 1 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Jake Burger

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail