Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	451	54	84	20	15	.207	.280	.402	.682
2025	573	63	124	37	5	.236	.293	.485	.778
2026	660	70	145	23	5	.240	.298	.401	.699
7 Seasons	2303	242	477	98	32	.226	.283	.412	.695

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-10-16

79

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

69

Defense4 metrics

16

Speed2 metrics

58

Plate skills10 metrics

51

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-10-16

xwOBA preseason	0.335
xwOBA current pace	0.326
xwOBA rolling p50	0.328
Observed weight	76%

xwOBA

0.309 0.318 0.328 0.338 0.347

wOBA

0.303 0.314 0.325 0.337 0.348

ISO

0.154 0.163 0.173 0.183 0.192

K%

23.3% 24.3% 25.3% 26.4% 27.3%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-10-16

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%6.2%

70 -19 vs proj

Exit velocity90.4

83

Hard-hit%45.5%

82

xBA0.346

80

xSLG0.602

81

xwOBA0.326

75

BB%5.3%

16 -22 vs proj

Bat speed75.3

98

K%25.1%

38

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Runs-2.7 · RF

6

Arm Strength91.8 · RF

34

Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF

14

Range Runs-5.8 · RF

10

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.0 · RF

41

Sprint Speed28.3 · RF

75

SB Success Rate100.0% · RF

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-10-16

Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9% · rebadged research

28

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.2% · rebadged research

71

Correct Decisions66.2% · rebadged research

52

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.274 · borderline

80

Resists FastballwOBA 0.357 · validated

20

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364 · validated

32

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98

37

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample

13

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.252 · validated thin sample

96

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · insufficient sample

83

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Jo Adell's tools (80) outpace production (58) by 22 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too High

-12.0° Current 32° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.0σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.325

xwOBA (deserved)0.326

Adell’s wOBA sits at 0.325, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.326 — a gap of 0.000, 0.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 714 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Rodríguez, Julio SEA · R	0.88	Barrel ratexwOBA on contact	Player · Projection
Smith, Cam HOU · R	0.79	xwOBA on contactBat speed	Player · Projection
Duran, Jarren BOS · L	0.72	Barrel rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection
Crews, Dylan WSH · R	0.67	Barrel rateStrikeout rate	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	11	2026-10-15	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	20	2026-10-13	2 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp +0.394

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.336 xwOBA \| 28 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs SD0 HR \| 1 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 2B, 2 K, RBI
2026-05-20 vs ATH1 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2B, RBI
2026-04-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-17 vs SD0 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 2B, 2 K, 2 RBI
2026-04-15 @ NYY0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K

Age	27
Height	6' 2"
Weight	215 lb
Debut	2020-08-04

xwOBA Δ	-0.010
wOBA Δ	-0.010

Hitter Projections 20260.336 xwOBA \| 28 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 vs SD0 HR \| 1 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 2B, 2 K, RBI
2026-05-20 vs ATH1 HR \| 1 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2B, RBI
2026-04-20 vs TOR0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2 K
2026-04-17 vs SD0 HR \| 2 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-5 \| 2B, 2 K, 2 RBI
2026-04-15 @ NYY0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-4 \| K

Jo Adell

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail