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The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-08 beta
COL 3, NYY 5. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
COL 3, NYY 5
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:48:57Z UTC · back to slate
3 – 5final score
8total runs
68% → 100%NYY win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees
Hughes, Gabriel vs Schlittler, Cam · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
COL 31.7%NYY 68.3%
3.76 – 5.4mean score
9.16mean total
52%NRFI
8.8%extra innings
5.66 / 7.86starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
COL (gold) vs NYY (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
COL per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McCarthy, Jake | 4.653 | 1.221 | 0.106 | 1.849 | 0.245 | 1.165 | 0.401 |
| Carrigg, Cole | 4.543 | 1.005 | 0.099 | 1.545 | 0.348 | 1.455 | 0.402 |
| Rumfield, TJ | 4.433 | 1.111 | 0.108 | 1.669 | 0.389 | 0.977 | 0.463 |
| Goodman, Hunter | 4.336 | 0.881 | 0.231 | 1.819 | 0.308 | 1.814 | 0.615 |
| Moniak, Mickey | 4.235 | 0.899 | 0.171 | 1.652 | 0.216 | 1.54 | 0.496 |
| Karros, Kyle | 4.127 | 0.912 | 0.079 | 1.343 | 0.368 | 1.226 | 0.325 |
| Amador, Adael | 4.017 | 0.898 | 0.114 | 1.438 | 0.322 | 1.205 | 0.394 |
| Veen, Zac | 3.901 | 0.807 | 0.1 | 1.303 | 0.276 | 1.451 | 0.356 |
| Tovar, Ezequiel | 3.779 | 0.7 | 0.081 | 1.079 | 0.216 | 1.329 | 0.309 |
Projected batting lines
NYY per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rice, Ben | 4.743 | 1.28 | 0.256 | 2.41 | 0.54 | 1.229 | 0.673 |
| Bellinger, Cody | 4.627 | 1.262 | 0.107 | 1.843 | 0.488 | 0.838 | 0.507 |
| Judge, Aaron | 4.511 | 1.168 | 0.249 | 2.242 | 0.605 | 1.256 | 0.783 |
| García Jr., Luis | 4.406 | 1.346 | 0.203 | 2.329 | 0.255 | 0.835 | 0.819 |
| Jones, Spencer | 4.297 | 1.158 | 0.161 | 1.949 | 0.401 | 1.347 | 0.672 |
| Chisholm Jr., Jazz | 4.199 | 1.006 | 0.134 | 1.626 | 0.432 | 1.223 | 0.573 |
| Lombard Jr., George | 4.089 | 1.037 | 0.095 | 1.539 | 0.333 | 1.125 | 0.488 |
| McMahon, Ryan | 3.974 | 0.967 | 0.107 | 1.481 | 0.318 | 1.175 | 0.489 |
| Wells, Austin | 3.858 | 0.8 | 0.097 | 1.232 | 0.406 | 1.06 | 0.4 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
McCarthy, Jake vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT AIR
Carrigg, Cole vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT GB
Rumfield, TJ vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Rice, Ben vs Hughes, Gabriel: K
Bellinger, Cody vs Hughes, Gabriel: OUT AIR
Judge, Aaron vs Hughes, Gabriel: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Goodman, Hunter vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT AIR
Moniak, Mickey vs Schlittler, Cam: K
Karros, Kyle vs Schlittler, Cam: BB
Amador, Adael vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT GB
— Bottom 2 —
García Jr., Luis vs Hughes, Gabriel: OUT AIR
Jones, Spencer vs Hughes, Gabriel: K
Chisholm Jr., Jazz vs Hughes, Gabriel: 1B
Lombard Jr., George vs Hughes, Gabriel: OUT GB
— Top 3 —
Veen, Zac vs Schlittler, Cam: 1B
Tovar, Ezequiel vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT GB
McCarthy, Jake vs Schlittler, Cam: 1B
Carrigg, Cole vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT AIR
Rumfield, TJ vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
McMahon, Ryan vs Hughes, Gabriel: K
Wells, Austin vs Hughes, Gabriel: OUT GB
Rice, Ben vs Hughes, Gabriel: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Goodman, Hunter vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT GB
Moniak, Mickey vs Schlittler, Cam: 1B
Karros, Kyle vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
Bellinger, Cody vs Hughes, Gabriel: 1B
Judge, Aaron vs Hughes, Gabriel: K
García Jr., Luis vs Hughes, Gabriel: 1B
Jones, Spencer vs Hughes, Gabriel: 1B +1 run (0-1)
Chisholm Jr., Jazz vs Hughes, Gabriel: HR +3 runs (0-4)
Lombard Jr., George vs Hughes, Gabriel: OUT GB
McMahon, Ryan vs Hughes, Gabriel: 1B
Wells, Austin vs Hughes, Gabriel: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Amador, Adael vs Schlittler, Cam: 1B
Veen, Zac vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT AIR
Tovar, Ezequiel vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT AIR
McCarthy, Jake vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT GB
— Bottom 5 —
Rice, Ben vs Hughes, Gabriel: 2B
Bellinger, Cody vs Hughes, Gabriel: 1B +1 run (0-5)
Judge, Aaron vs Manfredi, Mark: 2B
García Jr., Luis vs Manfredi, Mark: OUT GB
Jones, Spencer vs Manfredi, Mark: OUT AIR
Chisholm Jr., Jazz vs Manfredi, Mark: BB
Lombard Jr., George vs Shook, TJ: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Carrigg, Cole vs Schlittler, Cam: K
Rumfield, TJ vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT AIR
Goodman, Hunter vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT AIR
— Bottom 6 —
McMahon, Ryan vs Shook, TJ: OUT AIR
Wells, Austin vs Shook, TJ: HR +1 run (0-6)
Rice, Ben vs Shook, TJ: HR +1 run (0-7)
Bellinger, Cody vs Hill, Jaden: OUT GB
Judge, Aaron vs Hill, Jaden: HR +1 run (0-8)
García Jr., Luis vs Hill, Jaden: K
— Top 7 —
Moniak, Mickey vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT GB
Karros, Kyle vs Schlittler, Cam: OUT GB
Amador, Adael vs Schlittler, Cam: 1B
Veen, Zac vs Fulmer, Michael: OUT AIR
— Bottom 7 —
Jones, Spencer vs Hill, Jaden: BB
Chisholm Jr., Jazz vs Castaño, Blas: OUT GB
Lombard Jr., George vs Castaño, Blas: OUT AIR
McMahon, Ryan vs Castaño, Blas: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Tovar, Ezequiel vs Fulmer, Michael: HR +1 run (1-8)
McCarthy, Jake vs Fulmer, Michael: 2B
Carrigg, Cole vs Fulmer, Michael: K
Rumfield, TJ vs Fulmer, Michael: OUT GB
Goodman, Hunter vs Lagrange, Carlos: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Wells, Austin vs Castaño, Blas: OUT AIR
Rice, Ben vs Castaño, Blas: 2B
Bellinger, Cody vs Castaño, Blas: BB
Judge, Aaron vs Brebbia, John: OUT AIR
García Jr., Luis vs Brebbia, John: OUT AIR
— Top 9 —
Moniak, Mickey vs Lagrange, Carlos: OUT GB
Karros, Kyle vs Lagrange, Carlos: OUT AIR
Amador, Adael vs Lagrange, Carlos: OUT AIR