Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-06-01

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Research Confidence Compare Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-06-01

Core 5

Select 2

Conviction 0

Parlay Overlay 0

2026-05-31 →

Lane Health 2026-06-01

Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable

Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling

Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

No qualifying play

No Fangorn play cleared the parlay-probability filter today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 7 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 5 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Zach Neto

LAA vs COL | vs Kyle Freeland

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 0.4%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.4% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.5% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Kyle Freeland, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +470 17.9% 0.4% Watch Zone

Cj Abrams

WSH vs MIA | vs Sandy Alcantara

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 3.4%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.5% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.6% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Sandy Alcantara, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +590 17.9% 3.4% Watch Zone

BetMGM +585 17.9% 3.3% Watch Zone

DraftKings +585 17.9% 3.3% Watch Zone

Corbin Carroll

AZ vs LAD | vs Emmet Sheehan

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap -0.3%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.6% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Emmet Sheehan, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +450 17.9% -0.3% Watch Zone

BetMGM +445 17.9% -0.4% Watch Zone

Alec Burleson

STL vs TEX | vs Jacob deGrom

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 4.1%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 18.2% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Jacob deGrom, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

BetMGM Best +625 17.9% 4.1% Watch Zone

DraftKings +625 17.9% 4.1% Watch Zone

FanDuel +625 17.9% 4.1% Watch Zone

Iván Herrera

STL vs TEX | vs Jacob deGrom

#10

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 4.9%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.5% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.4% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Jacob deGrom, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +670 17.9% 4.9% Watch Zone

Select

Best edge-driven HR looks from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ vs LAD | vs Emmet Sheehan

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 8.2%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.2% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.7% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Emmet Sheehan, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +935 17.9% 8.2% Watch Zone

BetMGM +920 17.9% 8.1% Watch Zone

FanDuel +915 17.9% 8.1% Watch Zone

Evan Carter

TEX vs STL | vs Michael McGreevy

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 6

Calibrated Prob 17.9%

Market Gap 6.6%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 17.3% Adjusted from 17.9% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.6% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Michael McGreevy, with batting 6 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +780 17.9% 6.6% Watch Zone

FanDuel +775 17.9% 6.5% Watch Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 0 Artifact

No conviction Fangorn picks were saved for this slate.

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.