Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-08-09

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Research Confidence Compare Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-08-09

Core 4

Select 2

Conviction 2

Parlay Overlay 0

2026-08-08 →

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

Nick Loftin

KC vs CHC | +1130

Mixed Read Lean

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 17.8%

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 8 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 4 Market Rows 10 Artifact

Eli White

BOS vs ATH | vs J.t. Ginn

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 8

Calibrated Prob 31.1%

Market Gap 17.3%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.9% Adjusted from 31.1% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.2% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Neutral Trust

Premium Zone look against J.t. Ginn, with batting 8 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +625 31.1% 17.3% Premium Zone

BetMGM +620 31.1% 17.2% Premium Zone

DraftKings +620 31.1% 17.2% Premium Zone

Trent Grisham

NYY vs ATL | vs Grant Holmes

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 31.0%

Market Gap 10.8%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.7% Adjusted from 31.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Premium Zone look against Grant Holmes, with batting 1 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +395 31.0% 10.8% Premium Zone

BetMGM +390 31.0% 10.6% Premium Zone

DraftKings +385 31.0% 10.3% Premium Zone

Ben Rice

NYY vs ATL | vs Grant Holmes

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Parlay Candidate

1 line option 3 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 6.4%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.2% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.8% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Grant Holmes, with batting 2 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +410 26.0% 6.4% Strong Zone

BetMGM +405 26.0% 6.2% Strong Zone

DraftKings +400 26.0% 6.0% Strong Zone

Iván Herrera

STL vs COL | vs Michael Lorenzen

#10

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 10.8%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.0% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Strong Zone look against Michael Lorenzen, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +560 26.0% 10.8% Strong Zone

Select

Largest model-market HR gaps from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Nick Loftin

KC vs CHC | vs Matthew Boyd

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 17.8%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.6% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.4% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Matthew Boyd, with batting 1 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +1130 26.0% 17.8% Strong Zone

BetMGM +1100 26.0% 17.6% Strong Zone

FanDuel +1090 26.0% 17.6% Strong Zone

José Tena

WSH vs CIN | vs Brady Singer

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 17.6%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 24.6% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Moderate Damage Neutral Trust

Strong Zone look against Brady Singer, with batting 3 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +1090 26.0% 17.6% Strong Zone

BetMGM +1065 26.0% 17.4% Strong Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 2 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Trent Grisham

NYY vs ATL | vs Grant Holmes

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 31.0%

Market Gap 10.8%

Confidence Premium Zone

Hybrid Confidence 29.7% Adjusted from 31.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.3% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Premium Zone look against Grant Holmes, with batting 1 and a hitter-friendly run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +395 31.0% 10.8% Premium Zone

BetMGM +390 31.0% 10.6% Premium Zone

DraftKings +385 31.0% 10.3% Premium Zone

Iván Herrera

STL vs COL | vs Michael Lorenzen

1+ HR Over Standard Play 0.75 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 2 books Batting 2

Calibrated Prob 26.0%

Market Gap 10.8%

Confidence Strong Zone

Hybrid Confidence 25.0% Adjusted from 26.0% model read

Playable

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 1.0% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Elite Damage Watchlist Trust

Strong Zone look against Michael Lorenzen, with batting 2 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

FanDuel Best +560 26.0% 10.8% Strong Zone

DraftKings +550 26.0% 10.6% Strong Zone

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.