Section III · Betting · Price comparison
Model-market gaps.
Largest market gaps, paired with the model-health context needed to interpret them.
WATCH MODE largest lane gaps
THRESHOLDS ≤5pp aligned · 6-10pp soft · >10pp split
HEALTH scheduled lane metrics
Top half · disagreement leaderboard
| # | Selection | Market | Three lanes | Spread | Market fair | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Daylen LileWSH vs ATL |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
15.9
F
11.7
V
8.8
FULL
|
7.1 pts | 11.1% | Palantir sees 15.9%; Valinor sees 8.8%; gap of 7.1 pts. Market fair: 11.1%. |
| 02 | Luis ArraezSF vs PIT |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
6.2
F
10.9
V
12.4
FULL
|
6.2 pts | 7.7% | Valinor sees 12.4%; Palantir sees 6.2%; gap of 6.2 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. |
| 03 | Cj AbramsWSH vs ATL |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
16.4
F
14.1
V
11.2
FULL
|
5.2 pts | 13.9% | Palantir sees 16.4%; Valinor sees 11.2%; gap of 5.2 pts. Market fair: 13.9%. |
Bottom half · model-health audit
| Market | Lane | Logged | Brier | ECE | Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home_runs | palantirrecalibrated |
17901 | 0.1175 | 0.0084 | 14d stable | healthy |
| home_runs | fangornrecalibrated |
17901 | 0.1176 | 0.0090 | 14d stable | healthy |
| home_runs | valinorrecalibrated |
12243 | 0.1122 | 0.0047 | 14d stable | healthy |
| strikeouts | palantirrecalibrated |
1577 | 0.2475 | 0.0061 | 14d stable | calibration review |
| strikeouts | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
53 | 0.2569 | 0.1190 | sample building | sample building |
| strikeouts | valinorrecalibrated |
1073 | 0.2475 | 0.0165 | 14d error rising | calibration review |
| total_bases | palantirrecalibrated |
8544 | 0.2375 | 0.0473 | 14d error rising | calibration review |
| total_bases | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| total_bases | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | palantirskipped_insufficient_validation_split |
673 | 0.1632 | 0.0309 | 14d stable | healthy |
| hits | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | palantirrecalibrated |
891 | 0.2565 | 0.0601 | 14d stable | calibration review |
| pitcher_outs | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |