Section III · Betting · Price comparison
Model-market gaps.
Largest market gaps, paired with the model-health context needed to interpret them.
WATCH MODE largest lane gaps
THRESHOLDS ≤5pp aligned · 6-10pp soft · >10pp split
HEALTH scheduled lane metrics
Top half · disagreement leaderboard
| # | Selection | Market | Three lanes | Spread | Market fair | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No disagreement leaderboard This leaderboard needs at least two lanes for the same market row. K and Futures remain insufficient-lane markets. Hits and Pitcher Outs can surface partial splits when Palantir and Fangorn disagree. | ||||||
Bottom half · model-health audit
| Market | Lane | Logged | Brier | ECE | Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home_runs | palantirrecalibrated |
22485 | 0.1180 | 0.0042 | 14d error rising | calibration review |
| home_runs | fangornrecalibrated |
22485 | 0.1181 | 0.0051 | 14d error rising | calibration review |
| home_runs | valinorrecalibrated |
16797 | 0.1142 | 0.0017 | 14d error rising | calibration review |
| strikeouts | palantirrecalibrated |
2000 | 0.2481 | 0.0098 | sample building | sample building |
| strikeouts | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
53 | 0.2569 | 0.1190 | sample building | sample building |
| strikeouts | valinorrecalibrated |
1496 | 0.2483 | 0.0100 | sample building | sample building |
| total_bases | palantirrecalibrated |
10922 | 0.2384 | 0.0415 | sample building | sample building |
| total_bases | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| total_bases | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
889 | 0.1702 | 0.0397 | sample building | sample building |
| hits | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | palantirrecalibrated |
1106 | 0.2553 | 0.0517 | sample building | sample building |
| pitcher_outs | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |