Section III · Betting · Edge Watch
Market gaps · and our own model health.
The top half surfaces the largest live lane splits. The bottom half audits whether the lanes are calibrated enough to trust.
WATCH MODE largest lane gaps
THRESHOLDS ≤5pp aligned · 6-10pp soft · >10pp split
HEALTH scheduled lane metrics
Top half · disagreement leaderboard
| # | Selection | Market | Three lanes | Spread | Market fair | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Tyler FitzgeraldSF vs MIL |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
13.4
F
0.0
V
0.0
FULL
|
13.4 pts | 11.6% | Palantir sees 13.4%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 13.4 pts. Market fair: 11.6%. |
| 02 | Jacob WilsonATH vs CHC |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
10.5
F
0.0
V
0.0
FULL
|
10.5 pts | 8.7% | Palantir sees 10.5%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 10.5 pts. Market fair: 8.7%. |
| 03 | Luke KeaschallMIN vs CWS |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
12.6
F
3.4
V
3.4
FULL
|
9.2 pts | 10.5% | Palantir sees 12.6%; Fangorn sees 3.4%; gap of 9.2 pts. Market fair: 10.5%. |
| 04 | Victor Scott IISTL vs TEX |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
7.2
F
0.0
V
0.0
FULL
|
7.2 pts | 7.7% | Palantir sees 7.2%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 7.2 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. |
| 05 | Jackson MerrillSD vs PHI |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
20.2
F
13.4
V
13.4
FULL
|
6.8 pts | 15.5% | Palantir sees 20.2%; Fangorn sees 13.4%; gap of 6.8 pts. Market fair: 15.5%. |
| 06 | Nick KurtzATH vs CHC |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
18.1
F
11.4
V
11.4
FULL
|
6.6 pts | 26.5% | Palantir sees 18.1%; Fangorn sees 11.4%; gap of 6.6 pts. Market fair: 26.5%. |
| 07 | Jonathan ArandaTB vs DET |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
20.4
F
26.0
V
26.0
FULL
|
5.5 pts | 12.8% | Fangorn sees 26.0%; Palantir sees 20.4%; gap of 5.5 pts. Market fair: 12.8%. |
| 08 | Yandy DíazTB vs DET |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
20.6
F
26.0
V
26.0
FULL
|
5.4 pts | 14.2% | Fangorn sees 26.0%; Palantir sees 20.6%; gap of 5.4 pts. Market fair: 14.2%. |
| 09 | Chandler SimpsonTB vs DET |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
5.1
F
0.0
V
0.0
FULL
|
5.1 pts | 8.0% | Palantir sees 5.1%; Fangorn sees 0.0%; gap of 5.1 pts. Market fair: 8.0%. |
Bottom half · model-health audit
| Market | Lane | Logged | Brier | ECE | Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home_runs | palantirrecalibrated |
3096 | 0.1261 | 0.0299 | 14d stable | healthy |
| home_runs | fangornrecalibrated |
3096 | 0.1264 | 0.0088 | 14d error falling | healthy |
| home_runs | valinorrecalibrated |
1176 | 0.1246 | 0.0130 | 14d stable | healthy |
| strikeouts | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
49 | 0.2284 | 0.1895 | sample building | sample building |
| strikeouts | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
13 | 0.2391 | 0.1387 | sample building | sample building |
| strikeouts | valinorskipped_insufficient_sample |
32 | 0.2360 | 0.2204 | sample building | sample building |
| total_bases | palantirrecalibrated |
194 | 0.2617 | 0.2069 | sample building | sample building |
| total_bases | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| total_bases | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
2 | 0.5603 | 0.7485 | sample building | sample building |
| hits | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
40 | 0.2487 | 0.0401 | sample building | sample building |
| pitcher_outs | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |