Section III · Betting · Edge Watch
Market gaps · and our own model health.
The top half surfaces the largest live lane splits. The bottom half audits whether the lanes are calibrated enough to trust.
WATCH MODE largest lane gaps
THRESHOLDS ≤5pp aligned · 6-10pp soft · >10pp split
HEALTH scheduled lane metrics
Top half · disagreement leaderboard
| # | Selection | Market | Three lanes | Spread | Market fair | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Daylen LileWSH vs ATH |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
20.2
F
13.2
V
11.1
FULL
|
9.1 pts | 11.1% | Palantir sees 20.2%; Valinor sees 11.1%; gap of 9.1 pts. Market fair: 11.1%. |
| 02 | Cj AbramsWSH vs ATH |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
21.0
F
18.0
V
13.1
FULL
|
7.8 pts | 13.9% | Palantir sees 21.0%; Valinor sees 13.1%; gap of 7.8 pts. Market fair: 13.9%. |
| 03 | Bo BichetteNYM vs PHI |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
19.4
F
15.3
V
11.9
FULL
|
7.6 pts | 12.2% | Palantir sees 19.4%; Valinor sees 11.9%; gap of 7.6 pts. Market fair: 12.2%. |
| 04 | Luis ArraezSF vs SEA |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
6.2
F
12.0
V
12.9
FULL
|
6.7 pts | 7.7% | Valinor sees 12.9%; Palantir sees 6.2%; gap of 6.7 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. |
| 05 | Iván HerreraSTL vs AZ |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
19.4
F
14.7
V
12.8
FULL
|
6.5 pts | 12.6% | Palantir sees 19.4%; Valinor sees 12.8%; gap of 6.5 pts. Market fair: 12.6%. |
| 06 | Tyler SoderstromATH vs WSH |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
21.1
F
15.3
V
14.6
FULL
|
6.4 pts | 14.0% | Palantir sees 21.1%; Valinor sees 14.6%; gap of 6.4 pts. Market fair: 14.0%. |
| 07 | Andy PagesLAD vs NYY |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
16.9
F
13.5
V
10.7
FULL
|
6.3 pts | 13.4% | Palantir sees 16.9%; Valinor sees 10.7%; gap of 6.3 pts. Market fair: 13.4%. |
| 08 | Geraldo PerdomoAZ vs STL |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
15.8
F
14.5
V
9.6
FULL
|
6.1 pts | 9.3% | Palantir sees 15.8%; Valinor sees 9.6%; gap of 6.1 pts. Market fair: 9.3%. |
| 09 | Lane ThomasKC vs SD |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
12.0
F
13.3
V
18.1
FULL
|
6.1 pts | 12.6% | Valinor sees 18.1%; Palantir sees 12.0%; gap of 6.1 pts. Market fair: 12.6%. |
| 10 | Bryce HarperPHI vs NYM |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
18.1
F
14.5
V
20.4
FULL
|
6.0 pts | 18.0% | Valinor sees 20.4%; Fangorn sees 14.5%; gap of 6.0 pts. Market fair: 18.0%. |
| 11 | Andrew BenintendiCWS vs TOR |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
16.7
F
14.7
V
10.8
FULL
|
5.9 pts | 13.1% | Palantir sees 16.7%; Valinor sees 10.8%; gap of 5.9 pts. Market fair: 13.1%. |
| 12 | Corbin CarrollAZ vs STL |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
18.4
F
14.7
V
12.6
FULL
|
5.9 pts | 17.5% | Palantir sees 18.4%; Valinor sees 12.6%; gap of 5.9 pts. Market fair: 17.5%. |
| 13 | Adolis GarcíaPHI vs NYM |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
15.9
F
14.5
V
20.3
FULL
|
5.8 pts | 17.8% | Valinor sees 20.3%; Fangorn sees 14.5%; gap of 5.8 pts. Market fair: 17.8%. |
| 14 | Cody BellingerNYY vs LAD |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
20.5
F
14.7
V
14.8
FULL
|
5.8 pts | 16.9% | Palantir sees 20.5%; Fangorn sees 14.7%; gap of 5.8 pts. Market fair: 16.9%. |
| 15 | Kyle SchwarberPHI vs NYM |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
16.4
F
14.5
V
20.3
FULL
|
5.8 pts | 25.5% | Valinor sees 20.3%; Fangorn sees 14.5%; gap of 5.8 pts. Market fair: 25.5%. |
| 16 | James WoodWSH vs ATH |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
20.7
F
18.0
V
15.1
FULL
|
5.6 pts | 16.4% | Palantir sees 20.7%; Valinor sees 15.1%; gap of 5.6 pts. Market fair: 16.4%. |
| 17 | Nico HoernerCHC vs MIN |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
6.5
F
12.0
V
12.0
FULL
|
5.5 pts | 7.7% | Fangorn sees 12.0%; Palantir sees 6.5%; gap of 5.5 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. |
| 18 | Nathan LukesTOR vs CWS |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
15.6
F
14.7
V
10.2
FULL
|
5.4 pts | 9.1% | Palantir sees 15.6%; Valinor sees 10.2%; gap of 5.4 pts. Market fair: 9.1%. |
| 19 | Christian YelichMIL vs MIA |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
19.3
F
16.8
V
13.9
FULL
|
5.4 pts | 16.4% | Palantir sees 19.3%; Valinor sees 13.9%; gap of 5.4 pts. Market fair: 16.4%. |
| 20 | Jeremy PeñaHOU vs BAL |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
17.4
F
14.7
V
12.3
FULL
|
5.1 pts | 11.6% | Palantir sees 17.4%; Valinor sees 12.3%; gap of 5.1 pts. Market fair: 11.6%. |
| 21 | Brendan DonovanSEA vs SF |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
8.0
F
13.1
V
9.4
FULL
|
5.1 pts | 9.8% | Fangorn sees 13.1%; Palantir sees 8.0%; gap of 5.1 pts. Market fair: 9.8%. |
| 22 | Chase MeidrothCWS vs TOR |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
5.9
F
10.9
V
9.4
FULL
|
5.0 pts | 7.7% | Fangorn sees 10.9%; Palantir sees 5.9%; gap of 5.0 pts. Market fair: 7.7%. |
| 23 | Freddie FreemanLAD vs NYY |
Home Runs0.5 |
P
19.4
F
14.7
V
14.4
FULL
|
5.0 pts | 15.6% | Palantir sees 19.4%; Valinor sees 14.4%; gap of 5.0 pts. Market fair: 15.6%. |
Bottom half · model-health audit
| Market | Lane | Logged | Brier | ECE | Trend | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home_runs | palantirrecalibrated |
9390 | 0.1244 | 0.0102 | 14d stable | healthy |
| home_runs | fangornrecalibrated |
9390 | 0.1245 | 0.0116 | 14d stable | healthy |
| home_runs | valinorrecalibrated |
3795 | 0.1185 | 0.0068 | 14d stable | healthy |
| strikeouts | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
453 | 0.2452 | 0.0044 | sample building | sample building |
| strikeouts | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
18 | 0.2429 | 0.0802 | sample building | sample building |
| strikeouts | valinorskipped_insufficient_sample |
32 | 0.2360 | 0.2204 | sample building | sample building |
| total_bases | palantirrecalibrated |
3223 | 0.2400 | 0.1028 | sample building | sample building |
| total_bases | fangornskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| total_bases | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
137 | 0.1529 | 0.0251 | sample building | sample building |
| hits | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| hits | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | palantirrecalibrated |
328 | 0.2650 | 0.0830 | sample building | sample building |
| pitcher_outs | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| pitcher_outs | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | palantirskipped_insufficient_sample |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | fangorntraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |
| futures | valinortraining_time |
0 | -- | -- | tracking | tracking in progress |