Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-03 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-09-03

0 activated plays

Gap rows 126

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Older: 2026-09-02

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Jarren Duran

Strong

BOS vs BAL | Brandon Young

Value Score 39.1

Odds / Gap +715 / +8.36%

1+ HR 20.6%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.054x

Value Rank #2

Bobby Witt Jr.

Lean

KC vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara

Value Score 24.4

Odds / Gap +470 / +3.30%

1+ HR 20.8%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.112x

Value Rank #3

Yandy Díaz

Play

TB vs TEX | Cal Quantrill

Value Score 23.8

Odds / Gap +575 / +5.32%

1+ HR 20.1%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.076x

Value Rank #4

Vinnie Pasquantino

Lean

KC vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara

Value Score 23.7

Odds / Gap +475 / +3.32%

1+ HR 20.7%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.112x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Jarren Duran

BOS vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 1

Strong

Best Gap +8.36%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +715 / U -1045

+8.36%

11.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +715 / U -1110

+8.36%

11.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +715 / U --

+8.36%

12.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Roman Anthony

BOS vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +6.15%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +700 / U -1010

+6.15%

12.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +700 / U -1070

+6.15%

12.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +695 / U --

+6.07%

12.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jesús Sánchez

TOR vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +6.14%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +685 / U -980

+6.14%

12.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +680 / U -1040

+6.06%

12.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +680 / U --

+6.06%

12.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Andrew Benintendi

CWS vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +5.96%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +640 / U -900

+5.96%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -955

+5.96%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +640 / U --

+5.96%

13.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Carlos Correa

HOU vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.85%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +770 / U -1155

+5.85%

11.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +765 / U -1220

+5.78%

11.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +765 / U --

+5.78%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jonathan India

KC vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.84%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +920 / U -1485

+5.84%

9.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +905 / U --

+5.69%

10.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +900 / U -1570

+5.64%

9.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jeremy Peña

HOU vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.40%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +765 / U -1145

+5.40%

11.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +760 / U -1215

+5.33%

11.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +760 / U --

+5.33%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Yandy Díaz

TB vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.32%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +575 / U -825

+5.32%

14.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +570 / U -775

+5.20%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +570 / U --

+5.20%

14.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.24%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+5.24%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -980

+5.24%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+5.16%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +4.94%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +960 / U -1590

+4.94%

9.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +945 / U --

+4.80%

9.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +940 / U -1680

+4.75%

9.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.7

Jakob Marsee

MIA vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +4.83%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +855 / U -1340

+4.83%

10.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +845 / U -1415

+4.72%

10.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +845 / U --

+4.72%

10.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Daniel Schneemann

CLE vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +4.59%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +810 / U -1230

+4.59%

10.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +800 / U -1305

+4.47%

10.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +800 / U --

+4.47%

11.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Cedric Mullins

TB vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +4.53%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -835

+4.53%

13.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +605 / U -885

+4.53%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +605 / U --

+4.53%

14.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Lane Thomas

KC vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.82%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+3.82%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+3.82%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+3.82%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bo Naylor

CLE vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.41%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +620 / U -860

+3.41%

13.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +620 / U -915

+3.41%

13.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +620 / U --

+3.41%

13.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jose Altuve

HOU vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.35%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

+3.35%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

+3.22%

15.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -710

+3.10%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.8

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.32%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+3.32%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+3.01%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+3.01%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +3.30%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +470 / U -640

+3.30%

16.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -600

+3.14%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+3.14%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brice Turang

MIL vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +3.18%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 13.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +865 / U -1360

+3.18%

10.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +855 / U --

+3.07%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +850 / U -1435

+3.01%

10.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.7

William Contreras

MIL vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.17%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+3.17%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+3.17%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+3.17%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Willson Contreras

BOS vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.11%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +535 / U -750

+3.11%

15.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -705

+2.99%

15.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +530 / U --

+2.99%

15.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Agustín Ramírez

MIA vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.10%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +590 / U -850

+3.10%

13.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +585 / U -800

+2.99%

14.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +585 / U --

+2.99%

14.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +2.99%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -685

+2.99%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -640

+2.85%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+2.85%

17.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

George Springer

TOR vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.29%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+2.29%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+1.98%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+1.98%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Colson Montgomery

CWS vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +2.10%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +325 / U -400

+2.10%

22.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +335 / U -430

+0.97%

22.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +330 / U --

-5.36%

23.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Steven Kwan

CLE vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +2.08%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1010 / U -1720

+2.08%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +990 / U --

+1.92%

9.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +985 / U -1815

+1.87%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.8

Isaac Paredes

HOU vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.97%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +530 / U -745

+1.97%

15.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +525 / U -700

+1.84%

15.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +525 / U --

+1.84%

16.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ramón Urías

STL vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.90%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 12.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +830 / U -1280

+1.90%

10.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +820 / U -1355

+1.78%

10.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +820 / U --

+1.78%

10.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Wilyer Abreu

BOS vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.87%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -725

+1.87%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -680

+1.74%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

+1.74%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Edgar Quero

CWS vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +1.55%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+1.55%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+1.55%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+1.55%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.5

Junior Caminero

TB vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.53%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -435

+1.53%

21.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -465

+0.54%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-4.82%

22.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Christian Yelich

MIL vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.49%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -665

+1.49%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -625

+1.34%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

+1.34%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Iván Herrera

STL vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.35%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +635 / U -940

+1.35%

13.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +630 / U -885

+1.26%

13.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +630 / U --

+1.26%

13.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Salvador Perez

KC vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.34%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +460 / U -625

+1.34%

17.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

+1.18%

18.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +450 / U -585

+1.02%

17.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Daulton Varsho

TOR vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.28%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+1.28%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

+1.13%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+0.97%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Christian Walker

HOU vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.05%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -615

+1.05%

17.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +450 / U --

+0.89%

18.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -575

+0.72%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Chandler Simpson

TB vs TEX | Cal Quantrill | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.88%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 3.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.88%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.38%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-4.38%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.3

Xavier Edwards

MIA vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.21%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 4.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.21%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.29%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-3.71%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 102.4

José Ramírez

CLE vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.11%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +395 / U -520

+0.11%

19.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +390 / U --

-0.10%

20.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +385 / U -485

-0.31%

19.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Kyle Manzardo

CLE vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.52%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -650

-0.52%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

-0.67%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -610

-0.83%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Yordan Alvarez

HOU vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.58%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +385 / U -505

-0.58%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-0.79%

20.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +375 / U -470

-1.01%

20.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Chase Meidroth

CWS vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.13%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 6.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-1.13%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.13%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-1.13%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.3

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 459

Latest Date 2026-09-03

Latest Signals 4

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-09-03 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	126 matched 0 unmatched	3 / 34 / 32 Strong / Play / Lean	4 Jarren Duran \| 39.1	-- Signals --
2026-09-02 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	276 matched 0 unmatched	18 / 77 / 58 Strong / Play / Lean	5 TJ Friedl \| 53.8	-- Signals --
2026-09-01 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	273 matched 0 unmatched	28 / 51 / 81 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 43.6	-- Signals --
2026-08-31 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	213 matched 0 unmatched	13 / 74 / 57 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Adley Rutschman \| 43.6	-- Signals --
2026-08-30 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	312 matched 0 unmatched	36 / 66 / 93 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Jarren Duran \| 50.4	-- Signals --
2026-08-29 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	237 matched 18 unmatched	6 / 44 / 46 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Freddie Freeman \| 40.0	-- Signals --
2026-08-28 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	243 matched 0 unmatched	6 / 35 / 69 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Adley Rutschman \| 36.0	-- Signals --
2026-08-27 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	129 matched 0 unmatched	13 / 8 / 25 Strong / Play / Lean	3 Ezequiel Tovar \| 45.5	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373

Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025

Over Hit Rate 15.8%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%