Free-source markets • Anchor readiness • Line shopping
Market Watch
Before judging a number, inspect the market behind it.
Market Watch separates consensus-backed rows from sparse single-book rows. The goal is not to declare something mispriced; it is to decide whether the market is strong enough to support that conversation.
Snapshot
20260718
28%
consensus-backed
Tracked
2117
Anchor-ready
599
Input rows
3308
Updated
2026-07-18 12:00 UTC
Consensus proxy 599
Single-book only 40
Insufficient 1478
Sparse rows still matter for price shopping. They should not be treated as proof of closing-line value.
Lane Health
2026-07-18
Palantir
9540 props
Brier 0.125
ECE 0.010
14d error falling
Fangorn
9540 props
Brier 0.125
ECE 0.011
14d stable
Valinor
3945 props
Brier 0.119
ECE 0.005
14d error falling
Palantir
453 props
Brier 0.245
ECE 0.004
sample building
Fangorn
18 props
Brier 0.243
ECE 0.080
sample building
Valinor
32 props
Brier 0.236
ECE 0.220
sample building
Palantir
3223 props
Brier 0.240
ECE 0.103
sample building
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
137 props
Brier 0.153
ECE 0.025
sample building
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
328 props
Brier 0.265
ECE 0.083
sample building
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Rolling Accountability
Recent Market Quality
How often the free-source market has enough book coverage to support a cautious consensus-style anchor.
Days covered
28
| Date | Tracked | Anchor-Ready | Consensus Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20260718 | 2117 | 599 | 28.3% |
| 20260717 | 1267 | 401 | 31.6% |
| 20260716 | 175 | 34 | 19.4% |
| 20260714 | 71 | 71 | 100.0% |
| 20260712 | 2692 | 592 | 22.0% |
| 20260711 | 2430 | 591 | 24.3% |
| 20260710 | 1858 | 595 | 32.0% |
Structure Report
Which prop lanes are healthiest?
Each lane is judged by source depth, current consensus rate, and stability versus its recent average.
Prop Lane
Total Bases
37%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Home Run
35%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Strikeouts
16%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Hits
0%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Pitcher Outs
0%
latest consensus rate
Coverage Mix
Tracked market families
The page is only as strong as the markets it can see. This mix keeps coverage limits visible.
Anchor-Ready
Consensus-Proxy Markets
These rows have enough complete free-source book coverage to support a cautious CLV-style anchor.
| Player | Market | Anchor | Best Over | Best Under | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Brandon Pfaadt
ARI vs STL
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 50.6% Under 49.4% |
-105
BetMGM | Spread +23
|
+100
FanDuel | Spread +225
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bryan Woo
SEA vs SF
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 53.3% Under 46.7% |
-115
BetMGM | Spread +32
|
+115
DraftKings | Spread +230
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Davis Martin
CWS vs TOR
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 55.9% Under 44.1% |
-132
FanDuel | Spread +23
|
+115
BetMGM | Spread +11
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Emmet Sheehan
LAD vs NYY
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 49.4% Under 50.6% |
-104
DraftKings | Spread +21
|
-105
BetMGM | Spread +18
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Gavin Williams
CLE vs PIT
|
Strikeouts 7.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 42.7% Under 57.3% |
+122
FanDuel | Spread +12
|
-150
BetMGM | Spread +6
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Griffin Canning
SD vs KC
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 55.7% Under 44.3% |
-136
FanDuel | Spread +19
|
+115
BetMGM | Spread +9
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Ian Seymour
TB vs BOS
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 57.6% Under 42.4% |
-142
FanDuel | Spread +18
|
+123
DraftKings | Spread +11
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Logan Webb
SF vs SEA
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 49.6% Under 50.4% |
-105
BetMGM | Spread +20
|
-102
FanDuel | Spread +23
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs ATL
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 47.3% Under 52.7% |
+107
DraftKings | Spread +217
|
-120
BetMGM | Spread +17
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Max Meyer
MIA vs MIL
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 52.5% Under 47.5% |
-118
FanDuel | Spread +17
|
+100
BetMGM | Spread +208
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Ryan Weathers
NYY vs LAD
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 48.4% Under 51.6% |
-102
FanDuel | Spread +8
|
-118
DraftKings | Spread +7
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Sean Manaea
NYM vs PHI
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 42.5% Under 57.5% |
+124
DraftKings | Spread +14
|
-150
BetMGM | Spread +9
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Shane Drohan
MIL vs MIA
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 52.1% Under 47.9% |
-119
DraftKings | Spread +11
|
-104
FanDuel | Spread +3
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Spencer Arrighetti
HOU vs BAL
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 57.1% Under 42.9% |
-148
FanDuel | Spread +6
|
+121
DraftKings | Spread +11
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Taj Bradley
MIN vs CHC
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 56.2% Under 43.8% |
-130
BetMGM | Spread +26
|
+122
DraftKings | Spread +227
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Trevor Rogers
BAL vs HOU
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 47.1% Under 52.9% |
+102
FanDuel | Spread +209
|
-119
DraftKings | Spread +16
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Aaron Judge
NYY vs LAD
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 27.6% Under 72.4% |
+240
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-270
DraftKings | Spread +25
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Aaron Judge
NYY vs LAD
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 82.7% Under 17.3% |
-495
FanDuel | Spread +45
|
+440
DraftKings | Spread +60
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Aaron Judge
NYY vs LAD
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 76.1% Under 23.9% |
-330
FanDuel | Spread +20
|
+300
DraftKings | Spread +30
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Aaron Judge
NYY vs LAD
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 54.8% Under 45.2% |
-130
BetMGM | Spread +0
|
+115
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Adley Rutschman
BAL vs HOU
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 9.6% Under 90.4% |
+710
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
-1030
DraftKings | Spread +65
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Adley Rutschman
BAL vs HOU
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 74.3% Under 25.7% |
-300
FanDuel | Spread +20
|
+270
DraftKings | Spread +25
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Adley Rutschman
BAL vs HOU
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 55.6% Under 44.4% |
-130
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
+120
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Adley Rutschman
BAL vs HOU
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 32.2% Under 67.8% |
+195
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-220
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Adolis García
PHI vs NYM
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 16.1% Under 83.9% |
+440
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-555
DraftKings | Spread +35
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Adolis García
PHI vs NYM
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 75.6% Under 24.4% |
-320
FanDuel | Spread +25
|
+290
DraftKings | Spread +30
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Adolis García
PHI vs NYM
|
Total Bases 1.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 62.9% Under 37.1% |
-180
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
+160
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Adolis García
PHI vs NYM
|
Total Bases 2.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 40.2% Under 59.8% |
+140
BetMGM | Spread +5
|
-155
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Alec Bohm
PHI vs NYM
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 8.7% Under 91.3% |
+775
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
-1155
DraftKings | Spread +70
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Alec Bohm
PHI vs NYM
|
Total Bases 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 81.9% Under 18.1% |
-470
FanDuel | Spread +40
|
+415
DraftKings | Spread +50
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
Shopping Lane
Line-Shop Only Markets
These rows can still help with shopping prices, but they should not be treated as honest CLV anchors yet.
| Player | Market | Anchor | Best Over | Best Under | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Chase Meidroth
CWS vs TOR
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 5.0% Under 95.0% |
+1150
BetMGM | Spread +0
|
-2120
DraftKings | Spread +280
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Edgar Quero
CWS vs TOR
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 5.0% Under 95.0% |
+1150
BetMGM | Spread +0
|
-2120
DraftKings | Spread +280
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bryan Woo
SEA vs SF
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 53.3% Under 46.7% |
-115
BetMGM | Spread +32
|
+115
DraftKings | Spread +230
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Taj Bradley
MIN vs CHC
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 56.2% Under 43.8% |
-130
BetMGM | Spread +26
|
+122
DraftKings | Spread +227
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Brandon Pfaadt
ARI vs STL
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 50.6% Under 49.4% |
-105
BetMGM | Spread +23
|
+100
FanDuel | Spread +225
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs ATL
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 47.3% Under 52.7% |
+107
DraftKings | Spread +217
|
-120
BetMGM | Spread +17
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Trevor Rogers
BAL vs HOU
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 47.1% Under 52.9% |
+102
FanDuel | Spread +209
|
-119
DraftKings | Spread +16
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Max Meyer
MIA vs MIL
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 52.5% Under 47.5% |
-118
FanDuel | Spread +17
|
+100
BetMGM | Spread +208
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Brendan Donovan
SEA vs SF
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 7.3% Under 92.7% |
+890
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
-1410
DraftKings | Spread +85
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Brice Turang
MIL vs MIA
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 7.6% Under 92.4% |
+865
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
-1360
DraftKings | Spread +75
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Alec Bohm
PHI vs NYM
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 8.7% Under 91.3% |
+775
DraftKings | Spread +10
|
-1155
DraftKings | Spread +70
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Carlos Correa
HOU vs BAL
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 9.2% Under 90.8% |
+740
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
-1085
DraftKings | Spread +70
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Daylen Lile
WSH vs ATH
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 8.7% Under 91.3% |
+770
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
-1150
DraftKings | Spread +70
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Adley Rutschman
BAL vs HOU
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 9.6% Under 90.4% |
+710
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
-1030
DraftKings | Spread +65
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bo Bichette
NYM vs PHI
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 9.8% Under 90.2% |
+695
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
-1000
DraftKings | Spread +65
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Alec Burleson
STL vs AZ
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 11.1% Under 88.9% |
+625
BetMGM | Spread +0
|
-870
DraftKings | Spread +55
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs TOR
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 10.8% Under 89.2% |
+640
BetMGM | Spread +0
|
-900
DraftKings | Spread +55
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Andy Pages
LAD vs NYY
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 11.2% Under 88.8% |
+620
BetMGM | Spread +0
|
-860
DraftKings | Spread +55
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Dansby Swanson
CHC vs MIN
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 10.9% Under 89.1% |
+635
BetMGM | Spread +0
|
-890
DraftKings | Spread +55
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs CLE
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 11.3% Under 88.7% |
+615
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-850
DraftKings | Spread +50
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
CJ Abrams
WSH vs ATH
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 11.9% Under 88.1% |
+590
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-800
DraftKings | Spread +50
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Carlos Santana
AZ vs STL
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 11.4% Under 88.6% |
+610
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-840
DraftKings | Spread +50
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Alex Bregman
CHC vs MIN
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 12.6% Under 87.4% |
+560
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-750
DraftKings | Spread +45
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Austin Riley
ATL vs TEX
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 15.0% Under 85.0% |
+475
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-605
DraftKings | Spread +45
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Ben Rice
NYY vs LAD
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 13.5% Under 86.5% |
+520
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-685
DraftKings | Spread +45
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs SD
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 15.1% Under 84.9% |
+470
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-600
DraftKings | Spread +40
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bryce Harper
PHI vs NYM
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 16.4% Under 83.6% |
+435
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-540
DraftKings | Spread +40
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Christian Walker
HOU vs BAL
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 16.4% Under 83.6% |
+435
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-540
DraftKings | Spread +40
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Christian Yelich
MIL vs MIA
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 14.6% Under 85.4% |
+485
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-625
DraftKings | Spread +40
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Cody Bellinger
NYY vs LAD
|
Home Run 0.5
2/3 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 15.1% Under 84.9% |
+470
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-600
DraftKings | Spread +40
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |