Free-source markets • Anchor readiness • Line shopping
Market Watch
Before judging a number, inspect the market behind it.
Market Watch separates consensus-backed rows from sparse single-book rows. The goal is not to declare something mispriced; it is to decide whether the market is strong enough to support that conversation.
Snapshot
20260902
2%
consensus-backed
Tracked
1553
Anchor-ready
25
Input rows
1598
Updated
2026-09-02 11:56 UTC
Consensus proxy 25
Single-book only 44
Insufficient 1484
Sparse rows still matter for price shopping. They should not be treated as proof of closing-line value.
Lane Health
2026-09-02
Palantir
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
18081 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12423 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.004
14d stable
Palantir
1591 props
Brier 0.247
ECE 0.006
14d stable
Fangorn
53 props
Brier 0.257
ECE 0.119
sample building
Valinor
1087 props
Brier 0.248
ECE 0.016
14d stable
Palantir
8613 props
Brier 0.238
ECE 0.047
14d error rising
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
683 props
Brier 0.163
ECE 0.031
14d stable
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
900 props
Brier 0.256
ECE 0.059
14d error falling
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor
tracking in progress (0 logged)
Rolling Accountability
Recent Market Quality
How often the free-source market has enough book coverage to support a cautious consensus-style anchor.
Days covered
30
| Date | Tracked | Anchor-Ready | Consensus Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20260902 | 1553 | 25 | 1.6% |
| 20260901 | 1261 | 26 | 2.1% |
| 20260831 | 989 | 21 | 2.1% |
| 20260830 | 1942 | 22 | 1.1% |
| 20260829 | 1686 | 22 | 1.3% |
| 20260828 | 1415 | 24 | 1.7% |
| 20260827 | 839 | 11 | 1.3% |
Structure Report
Which prop lanes are healthiest?
Each lane is judged by source depth, current consensus rate, and stability versus its recent average.
Prop Lane
Strikeouts
17%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Total Bases
0%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Hits
0%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Home Run
0%
latest consensus rate
Prop Lane
Pitcher Outs
0%
latest consensus rate
Coverage Mix
Tracked market families
The page is only as strong as the markets it can see. This mix keeps coverage limits visible.
Anchor-Ready
Consensus-Proxy Markets
These rows have enough complete free-source book coverage to support a cautious CLV-style anchor.
| Player | Market | Anchor | Best Over | Best Under | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Andrew Painter
PHI vs ARI
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 54.2% Under 45.8% |
-125
BetMGM | Spread +24
|
+113
DraftKings | Spread +218
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Brandon Williamson
CIN vs SD
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.3% Under 53.7% |
+111
DraftKings | Spread +226
|
-115
BetMGM | Spread +30
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bryce Miller
SEA vs BOS
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 50.2% Under 49.8% |
-106
FanDuel | Spread +24
|
-105
BetMGM | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Cam Schlittler
NYY vs LAA
|
Strikeouts 7.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 55.4% Under 44.6% |
-137
DraftKings | Spread +13
|
+110
BetMGM | Spread +6
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
David Peterson
CHC vs MIL
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 47.8% Under 52.2% |
-102
FanDuel | Spread +4
|
-121
DraftKings | Spread +4
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Davis Martin
CWS vs HOU
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 50.8% Under 49.2% |
-112
DraftKings | Spread +13
|
-105
BetMGM | Spread +8
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Drew Anderson
DET vs MIN
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 41.3% Under 58.7% |
+126
FanDuel | Spread +7
|
-156
DraftKings | Spread +9
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Dylan Cease
TOR vs CLE
|
Strikeouts 6.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 49.5% Under 50.5% |
-108
DraftKings | Spread +7
|
-115
BetMGM | Spread +3
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Grant Holmes
ATL vs WSH
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 42.0% Under 58.0% |
+130
FanDuel | Spread +20
|
-150
BetMGM | Spread +16
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Griffin Jax
TB vs NYM
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 53.0% Under 47.0% |
-120
BetMGM | Spread +12
|
+104
FanDuel | Spread +214
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Hayden Wesneski
HOU vs CWS
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 55.3% Under 44.7% |
-139
DraftKings | Spread +3
|
+112
FanDuel | Spread +7
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs CHC
|
Strikeouts 7.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 52.7% Under 47.3% |
-118
DraftKings | Spread +17
|
+100
BetMGM | Spread +208
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jared Jones
PIT vs SF
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 59.0% Under 41.0% |
-160
BetMGM | Spread +6
|
+129
DraftKings | Spread +9
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Joey Cantillo
CLE vs TOR
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 50.3% Under 49.7% |
-111
FanDuel | Spread +8
|
-108
DraftKings | Spread +7
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Noah Cameron
KC vs MIA
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 57.7% Under 42.3% |
-146
FanDuel | Spread +17
|
+125
DraftKings | Spread +11
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Patrick Sandoval
BOS vs SEA
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 45.3% Under 54.7% |
+108
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-129
DraftKings | Spread +16
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Reid Detmers
LAA vs NYY
|
Strikeouts 6.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 55.6% Under 44.4% |
-135
BetMGM | Spread +19
|
+120
FanDuel | Spread +20
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Tomoyuki Sugano
COL vs BAL
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 48.6% Under 51.4% |
+104
FanDuel | Spread +219
|
-114
DraftKings | Spread +18
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Trevor Rogers
BAL vs COL
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 45.8% Under 54.2% |
+110
FanDuel | Spread +215
|
-130
BetMGM | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs STL
|
Strikeouts 6.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 53.5% Under 46.5% |
-125
BetMGM | Spread +11
|
+106
FanDuel | Spread +211
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Cody Bradford
TEX vs OAK
|
Strikeouts 4.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 57.2% Under 42.8% |
-146
FanDuel | Spread +9
|
+120
DraftKings | Spread +6
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Eury Pérez
MIA vs KC
|
Strikeouts 4.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 59.1% Under 40.9% |
-154
FanDuel | Spread +20
|
+129
DraftKings | Spread +9
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jacob Lopez
OAK vs TEX
|
Strikeouts 5.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 51.6% Under 48.4% |
-117
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
-104
FanDuel | Spread +3
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Justin Hagenman
NYM vs TB
|
Strikeouts 3.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 42.1% Under 57.9% |
+126
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-147
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Landen Roupp
SF vs PIT
|
Strikeouts 4.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 57.8% Under 42.2% |
-150
FanDuel | Spread +7
|
+123
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
Shopping Lane
Line-Shop Only Markets
These rows can still help with shopping prices, but they should not be treated as honest CLV anchors yet.
| Player | Market | Anchor | Best Over | Best Under | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Brandon Williamson
CIN vs SD
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 46.3% Under 53.7% |
+111
DraftKings | Spread +226
|
-115
BetMGM | Spread +30
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Tomoyuki Sugano
COL vs BAL
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 48.6% Under 51.4% |
+104
FanDuel | Spread +219
|
-114
DraftKings | Spread +18
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Andrew Painter
PHI vs ARI
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 54.2% Under 45.8% |
-125
BetMGM | Spread +24
|
+113
DraftKings | Spread +218
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Trevor Rogers
BAL vs COL
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 45.8% Under 54.2% |
+110
FanDuel | Spread +215
|
-130
BetMGM | Spread +10
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Griffin Jax
TB vs NYM
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 53.0% Under 47.0% |
-120
BetMGM | Spread +12
|
+104
FanDuel | Spread +214
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs STL
|
Strikeouts 6.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 53.5% Under 46.5% |
-125
BetMGM | Spread +11
|
+106
FanDuel | Spread +211
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs CHC
|
Strikeouts 7.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 52.7% Under 47.3% |
-118
DraftKings | Spread +17
|
+100
BetMGM | Spread +208
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Bryce Miller
SEA vs BOS
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 50.2% Under 49.8% |
-106
FanDuel | Spread +24
|
-105
BetMGM | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Grant Holmes
ATL vs WSH
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 42.0% Under 58.0% |
+130
FanDuel | Spread +20
|
-150
BetMGM | Spread +16
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Reid Detmers
LAA vs NYY
|
Strikeouts 6.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 55.6% Under 44.4% |
-135
BetMGM | Spread +19
|
+120
FanDuel | Spread +20
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Eury Pérez
MIA vs KC
|
Strikeouts 4.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 59.1% Under 40.9% |
-154
FanDuel | Spread +20
|
+129
DraftKings | Spread +9
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Noah Cameron
KC vs MIA
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 57.7% Under 42.3% |
-146
FanDuel | Spread +17
|
+125
DraftKings | Spread +11
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Patrick Sandoval
BOS vs SEA
|
Strikeouts 5.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 45.3% Under 54.7% |
+108
FanDuel | Spread +5
|
-129
DraftKings | Spread +16
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Justin Hagenman
NYM vs TB
|
Strikeouts 3.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 42.1% Under 57.9% |
+126
FanDuel | Spread +10
|
-147
DraftKings | Spread +15
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Cam Schlittler
NYY vs LAA
|
Strikeouts 7.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 55.4% Under 44.6% |
-137
DraftKings | Spread +13
|
+110
BetMGM | Spread +6
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Davis Martin
CWS vs HOU
|
Strikeouts 3.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 50.8% Under 49.2% |
-112
DraftKings | Spread +13
|
-105
BetMGM | Spread +8
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Drew Anderson
DET vs MIN
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 41.3% Under 58.7% |
+126
FanDuel | Spread +7
|
-156
DraftKings | Spread +9
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jared Jones
PIT vs SF
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 59.0% Under 41.0% |
-160
BetMGM | Spread +6
|
+129
DraftKings | Spread +9
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Cody Bradford
TEX vs OAK
|
Strikeouts 4.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 57.2% Under 42.8% |
-146
FanDuel | Spread +9
|
+120
DraftKings | Spread +6
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Joey Cantillo
CLE vs TOR
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 50.3% Under 49.7% |
-111
FanDuel | Spread +8
|
-108
DraftKings | Spread +7
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Dylan Cease
TOR vs CLE
|
Strikeouts 6.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 49.5% Under 50.5% |
-108
DraftKings | Spread +7
|
-115
BetMGM | Spread +3
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Hayden Wesneski
HOU vs CWS
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 55.3% Under 44.7% |
-139
DraftKings | Spread +3
|
+112
FanDuel | Spread +7
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Landen Roupp
SF vs PIT
|
Strikeouts 4.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 57.8% Under 42.2% |
-150
FanDuel | Spread +7
|
+123
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Jacob Lopez
OAK vs TEX
|
Strikeouts 5.5
2/2 complete books | DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 51.6% Under 48.4% |
-117
DraftKings | Spread +5
|
-104
FanDuel | Spread +3
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
David Peterson
CHC vs MIL
|
Strikeouts 4.5
3/3 complete books | BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel
|
Over 47.8% Under 52.2% |
-102
FanDuel | Spread +4
|
-121
DraftKings | Spread +4
|
Consensus Proxy Multiple complete books support a usable free-source anchor. |
|
Andrew Painter
--
|
Pitcher Outs 15.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 45.2% Under 54.8% |
+104
FanDuel
|
-140
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
Andrew Painter
--
|
Strikeouts 3.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 53.6% Under 46.4% |
-130
FanDuel
|
+102
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
Brad Lord
WSH vs ATL
|
Strikeouts 2.5
1/1 complete books | DraftKings
|
Over 39.3% Under 60.7% |
+135
DraftKings
|
-173
DraftKings
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
Brandon Williamson
--
|
Strikeouts 3.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 44.9% Under 55.1% |
+108
FanDuel
|
-138
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |
|
Bryce Miller
--
|
Pitcher Outs 15.5
1/1 complete books | FanDuel
|
Over 48.4% Under 51.6% |
-108
FanDuel
|
-122
FanDuel
|
Line Shop Only Pricing is useful for shopping, but not trustworthy enough for CLV. |