Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-08-07 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
75
Matched
261
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-07 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 6
 13.3%Palantir 9.1%market +4.2pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 10.1
3.3pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
02
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1
 14.1%Palantir 10.0%market +4.1pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 10.9
3.2pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
03
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs BALShane Baz · slot 6
 14.7%Palantir 11.0%market +3.7pp
P 14.7
F 13.4
V 10.1
4.6pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
04
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 7
 12.0%Palantir 9.6%market +2.4pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 9.7
3.5pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
05
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
 14.4%Palantir 12.5%market +1.9pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 12.2
2.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
06
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 1
 13.3%Palantir 11.6%market +1.8pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 10.2
3.2pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 735 avg 3 books
07
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 6
 12.2%Palantir 11.0%market +1.2pp
P 12.2
F 13.3
V 10.1
3.2pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
08
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 3
 12.9%Palantir 11.7%market +1.2pp
P 12.9
F 13.3
V 12.4
0.9pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
09
Brendan Donovan SEA
IN
SEA vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 6
 10.9%Palantir 9.8%market +1.2pp
P 10.9
F 13.2
V 9.0
4.1pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 890 avg 3 books
10
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
 13.6%Palantir 12.5%market +1.2pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 13.1
0.5pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
11
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 5
 11.6%Palantir 10.7%market +1.0pp
P 11.6
F 13.2
V 11.0
2.2pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
12
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3
 13.5%Palantir 12.7%market +0.7pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 11.1
2.3pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
13
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 12.9%Palantir 12.3%market +0.6pp
P 12.9
F 13.4
V 12.7
0.7pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
14
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
 13.6%Palantir 13.1%market +0.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 12.1
1.5pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
15
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs BALShane Baz · slot 1
 14.9%Palantir 14.4%market +0.5pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 13.1
1.8pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
16
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
 13.7%Palantir 13.3%market +0.4pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 12.5
1.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
17
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
 12.7%Palantir 13.3%market -0.7pp
P 12.7
F 13.2
V 11.8
1.4pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
18
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
 13.5%Palantir 14.9%market -1.4pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 12.4
1.1pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
19
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
 15.0%Palantir 16.4%market -1.4pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 13.7
1.5pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
20
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5
 12.6%Palantir 14.1%market -1.5pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 12.4
0.8pp 1.065xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
21
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 1
 13.3%Palantir 14.8%market -1.5pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 12.8
0.5pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
22
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 4
 13.1%Palantir 14.9%market -1.8pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 13.1
0.1pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
23
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 13.9%Palantir 15.8%market -1.9pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 12.0
1.9pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
24
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 5
 11.9%Palantir 13.8%market -1.9pp
P 11.9
F 13.0
V 14.4
2.5pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
25
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 2
 15.2%Palantir 17.2%market -2.0pp
P 15.2
F 13.7
V 14.4
1.5pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
26
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
 12.7%Palantir 14.8%market -2.1pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 13.0
0.6pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
27
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2
 14.3%Palantir 17.0%market -2.6pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 14.3
0.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
28
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 3
 13.6%Palantir 16.3%market -2.7pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
29
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
 14.6%Palantir 18.0%market -3.4pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 13.7
1.2pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
30
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
 14.2%Palantir 18.4%market -4.1pp
P 14.2
F 13.3
V 14.0
0.9pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
31
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs DETKeider Montero · slot 7
 10.3%Palantir 7.7%market +2.6pp
P 10.3
F 12.8
V 8.8
4.1pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
32
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
 9.9%Palantir 7.7%market +2.2pp
P 9.9
F 13.0
V 15.8
5.8pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
33
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
 11.7%Palantir 12.8%market -1.2pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 11.9
1.5pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
34
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
 12.1%Palantir 13.4%market -1.3pp
P 12.1
F 12.8
V 11.3
1.5pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
35
Yainer Diaz HOU
IN
HOU vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 7
 12.6%Palantir 14.0%market -1.4pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 9.6
3.6pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
36
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 5
 13.0%Palantir 14.5%market -1.5pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 14.1
1.1pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
37
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 6.5%Palantir 8.0%market -1.5pp
P 6.5
F 4.4
V 10.9
6.5pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
38
Cedric Mullins TB
Lineup pending
TB vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
 12.5%Palantir 14.2%market -1.7pp
P 12.5
F 13.2
V 11.6
1.6pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
39
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 5
 11.1%Palantir 13.0%market -1.9pp
P 11.1
F 13.0
V 15.1
3.9pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
40
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 3
 14.0%Palantir 16.4%market -2.4pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 12.7
1.3pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
41
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5
 13.6%Palantir 16.1%market -2.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 13.7
0.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
42
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 6
 13.1%Palantir 16.3%market -3.1pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 13.1
0.3pp 1.065xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
43
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 13.6%Palantir 17.0%market -3.4pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 14.5
1.1pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
44
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 1
 13.8%Palantir 17.2%market -3.4pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 14.0
0.6pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
45
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 14.0%Palantir 17.7%market -3.7pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 14.5
1.1pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
46
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 4
 13.1%Palantir 17.1%market -4.0pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 15.9
2.8pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
47
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
 12.9%Palantir 17.0%market -4.0pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 14.3
1.4pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
48
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
 13.6%Palantir 17.7%market -4.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 13.1
0.5pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
49
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 1
 13.6%Palantir 17.7%market -4.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 16.5
3.2pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
50
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 5
 12.6%Palantir 16.8%market -4.2pp
P 12.6
F 13.3
V 12.5
0.8pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 495 avg 3 books
51
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 13.1%Palantir 17.5%market -4.5pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.3
1.2pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
52
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
 13.1%Palantir 17.7%market -4.6pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 12.8
0.6pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
53
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 13.3%Palantir 18.0%market -4.7pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 14.4
1.2pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
54
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 4
 13.3%Palantir 18.0%market -4.8pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 16.3
3.0pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
55
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
 13.8%Palantir 19.1%market -5.3pp
P 13.8
F 13.3
V 14.8
1.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
56
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4
 12.3%Palantir 17.5%market -5.3pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 12.7
0.9pp 1.065xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
57
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 2
 13.5%Palantir 18.9%market -5.4pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 15.1
1.8pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
58
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 5
 13.8%Palantir 19.2%market -5.4pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 16.5
3.1pp 1.065xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
59
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 4
 13.5%Palantir 18.9%market -5.4pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 13.7
0.4pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
60
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4
 12.9%Palantir 18.4%market -5.5pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 14.1
1.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
61
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 2
 14.0%Palantir 19.6%market -5.6pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 14.1
0.7pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
62
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 2
 13.8%Palantir 19.4%market -5.7pp
P 13.8
F 13.3
V 16.3
3.0pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
63
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1
 13.5%Palantir 20.0%market -6.5pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 12.7
0.8pp 1.065xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 400 avg 3 books
64
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 6
 12.5%Palantir 19.2%market -6.7pp
P 12.5
F 13.2
V 11.4
1.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
65
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs BALShane Baz · slot 4
 12.3%Palantir 19.2%market -6.9pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 12.7
0.9pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
66
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs DETKeider Montero · slot 2
 13.8%Palantir 20.8%market -7.1pp
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 13.5
0.5pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
67
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 2
 13.1%Palantir 20.8%market -7.7pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 12.5
0.7pp 1.065xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
68
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 2
 12.5%Palantir 20.2%market -7.7pp
P 12.5
F 13.2
V 13.4
0.9pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 395 avg 3 books
69
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs BALShane Baz · slot 2
 14.2%Palantir 22.5%market -8.3pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 13.9
0.8pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
70
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2
 14.2%Palantir 23.0%market -8.7pp
P 14.2
F 13.3
V 14.2
0.9pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
71
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3
 12.7%Palantir 21.7%market -9.1pp
P 12.7
F 13.2
V 14.4
1.8pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
72
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
 12.8%Palantir 22.0%market -9.2pp
P 12.8
F 13.4
V 12.1
1.2pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
73
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3
 13.3%Palantir 26.3%market -13.0pp
P 13.3
F 13.0
V 15.8
2.8pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
74
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 3
 13.4%Palantir 27.0%market -13.6pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 13.9
0.6pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
75
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
 13.7%Palantir 29.8%market -16.2pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 17.4
4.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2535roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.