Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-07 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
75
Matched
261
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-07 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 6
 10.1%Valinor 9.1%market +0.7pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 10.1
3.3pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
02
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 5
 14.4%Valinor 13.2%market +0.7pp
P 11.9
F 13.0
V 14.4
2.5pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
03
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1
 10.9%Valinor 10.0%market +0.5pp
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 10.9
3.2pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
04
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 3
 12.4%Valinor 11.7%market +0.3pp
P 12.9
F 13.3
V 12.4
0.9pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
05
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
 13.1%Valinor 12.5%market +0.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 13.1
0.5pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
06
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 12.7%Valinor 12.3%market -0.1pp
P 12.9
F 13.4
V 12.7
0.7pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
07
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 5
 11.0%Valinor 10.7%market -0.2pp
P 11.6
F 13.2
V 11.0
2.2pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
08
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 7
 9.7%Valinor 9.7%market -0.4pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 9.7
3.5pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 890 avg 3 books
09
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
 12.2%Valinor 12.5%market -0.8pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 12.2
2.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
10
Brendan Donovan SEA
IN
SEA vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 6
 9.0%Valinor 9.9%market -1.2pp
P 10.9
F 13.2
V 9.0
4.1pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 875 avg 3 books
11
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
 12.5%Valinor 13.3%market -1.3pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 12.5
1.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
12
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs BALShane Baz · slot 6
 10.1%Valinor 11.0%market -1.4pp
P 14.7
F 13.4
V 10.1
4.6pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
13
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 6
 10.1%Valinor 11.0%market -1.4pp
P 12.2
F 13.3
V 10.1
3.2pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
14
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
 11.8%Valinor 13.3%market -1.5pp
P 12.7
F 13.2
V 11.8
1.4pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
15
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
 12.1%Valinor 13.2%market -1.6pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 12.1
1.5pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 630 avg 3 books
16
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5
 12.4%Valinor 14.1%market -1.7pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 12.4
0.8pp 1.065xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
17
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 4
 13.1%Valinor 14.4%market -1.8pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 13.1
0.1pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
18
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
 13.0%Valinor 14.3%market -1.8pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 13.0
0.6pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
19
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 1
 10.2%Valinor 11.6%market -1.9pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 10.2
3.2pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 730 avg 3 books
20
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs BALShane Baz · slot 1
 13.1%Valinor 14.5%market -2.0pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 13.1
1.8pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
21
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 1
 12.8%Valinor 14.3%market -2.0pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 12.8
0.5pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
22
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 15.7%market -2.1pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
23
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3
 11.1%Valinor 13.3%market -2.2pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 11.1
2.3pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
24
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
 12.4%Valinor 14.4%market -2.5pp
P 13.5
F 13.4
V 12.4
1.1pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
25
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2
 14.3%Valinor 16.5%market -2.8pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 14.3
0.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
26
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 2
 14.4%Valinor 16.7%market -2.9pp
P 15.2
F 13.7
V 14.4
1.5pp 1.047xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
27
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
 13.7%Valinor 16.0%market -2.9pp
P 15.0
F 13.4
V 13.7
1.5pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
28
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 12.0%Valinor 15.3%market -3.9pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 12.0
1.9pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
29
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1
 14.0%Valinor 17.7%market -4.4pp
P 14.2
F 13.3
V 14.0
0.9pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
30
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4
 13.7%Valinor 17.4%market -4.4pp
P 14.6
F 13.4
V 13.7
1.2pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
31
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
 12.1%Valinor 21.5%market -10.1pp
P 12.8
F 13.4
V 12.1
1.2pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
32
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3
 15.8%Valinor 25.8%market -10.9pp
P 13.3
F 13.0
V 15.8
2.8pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books
33
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
 17.4%Valinor 29.3%market -12.9pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 17.4
4.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 230 avg 3 books
34
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 3
 13.9%Valinor 26.5%market -13.5pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 13.9
0.6pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
35
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
 15.8%Valinor 7.7%market +7.8pp
P 9.9
F 13.0
V 15.8
5.8pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
36
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 10.9%Valinor 7.7%market +2.9pp
P 6.5
F 4.4
V 10.9
6.5pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
37
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 5
 15.1%Valinor 12.5%market +2.1pp
P 11.1
F 13.0
V 15.1
3.9pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
38
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs DETKeider Montero · slot 7
 8.8%Valinor 7.7%market +0.8pp
P 10.3
F 12.8
V 8.8
4.1pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
39
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 5
 14.1%Valinor 14.0%market -0.4pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 14.1
1.1pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
40
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
 11.9%Valinor 12.3%market -0.9pp
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 11.9
1.5pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
41
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 4
 15.9%Valinor 16.5%market -1.2pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 15.9
2.8pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
42
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 1
 16.5%Valinor 17.1%market -1.2pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 16.5
3.2pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
43
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 4
 16.3%Valinor 17.5%market -1.9pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 16.3
3.0pp 1.013xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
44
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
 11.3%Valinor 13.0%market -2.1pp
P 12.1
F 12.8
V 11.3
1.5pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 645 avg 3 books
45
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
Lineup pending
TOR vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 14.5%Valinor 16.4%market -2.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 14.5
1.1pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
46
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 5
 13.7%Valinor 15.7%market -2.6pp
P 13.6
F 13.3
V 13.7
0.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
47
Cedric Mullins TB
Lineup pending
TB vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
 11.6%Valinor 13.6%market -2.6pp
P 12.5
F 13.2
V 11.6
1.6pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
48
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
 14.3%Valinor 16.4%market -2.6pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 14.3
1.4pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
49
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 5
 16.5%Valinor 18.6%market -2.8pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 16.5
3.1pp 1.065xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
50
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 6
 13.1%Valinor 15.7%market -3.2pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 13.1
0.3pp 1.065xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
51
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 14.5%Valinor 17.1%market -3.2pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 14.5
1.1pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
52
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 1
 14.0%Valinor 16.7%market -3.2pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 14.0
0.6pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
53
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs PITCarmen Mlodzinski · slot 2
 16.3%Valinor 18.9%market -3.3pp
P 13.8
F 13.3
V 16.3
3.0pp 0.987xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
54
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 14.3%Valinor 17.1%market -3.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 14.3
1.2pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
55
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 3
 12.7%Valinor 15.8%market -3.6pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 12.7
1.3pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 510 avg 3 books
56
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 14.4%Valinor 17.5%market -3.7pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 14.4
1.2pp 0.926xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
57
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 2
 15.1%Valinor 18.4%market -3.9pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 15.1
1.8pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
58
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 5
 12.5%Valinor 16.2%market -4.3pp
P 12.6
F 13.3
V 12.5
0.8pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
59
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
 14.8%Valinor 18.6%market -4.4pp
P 13.8
F 13.3
V 14.8
1.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
60
Yainer Diaz HOU
IN
HOU vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 7
 9.6%Valinor 14.0%market -4.4pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 9.6
3.6pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
61
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4
 14.1%Valinor 17.9%market -4.5pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 14.1
1.2pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
62
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
 13.1%Valinor 17.1%market -4.6pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 13.1
0.5pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
63
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3
 12.8%Valinor 17.1%market -4.9pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 12.8
0.6pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
64
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4
 12.7%Valinor 17.1%market -5.0pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 12.7
0.9pp 1.065xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
65
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 4
 13.7%Valinor 18.4%market -5.3pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 13.7
0.4pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
66
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 2
 14.1%Valinor 19.1%market -5.7pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 14.1
0.7pp 1.076xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
67
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs BALShane Baz · slot 4
 12.7%Valinor 18.8%market -6.8pp
P 12.3
F 13.2
V 12.7
0.9pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
68
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 2
 13.4%Valinor 19.5%market -6.8pp
P 12.5
F 13.2
V 13.4
0.9pp 0.963xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 395 avg 3 books
69
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1
 12.7%Valinor 19.3%market -7.3pp
P 13.5
F 13.3
V 12.7
0.8pp 1.065xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
70
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3
 14.4%Valinor 21.2%market -7.5pp
P 12.7
F 13.2
V 14.4
1.8pp 0.961xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
71
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs DETKeider Montero · slot 2
 13.5%Valinor 20.3%market -7.6pp
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 13.5
0.5pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
72
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 6
 11.4%Valinor 18.8%market -8.1pp
P 12.5
F 13.2
V 11.4
1.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
73
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs NYYMax Fried · slot 2
 12.5%Valinor 20.3%market -8.5pp
P 13.1
F 13.2
V 12.5
0.7pp 1.065xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 375 avg 3 books
74
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs BALShane Baz · slot 2
 13.9%Valinor 22.0%market -8.9pp
P 14.2
F 13.4
V 13.9
0.8pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
75
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2
 14.2%Valinor 22.4%market -9.0pp
P 14.2
F 13.3
V 14.2
0.9pp 1.186xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2535roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.