Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-08-19 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
86
Matched
321
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-19 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
WSH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3
15.3%Palantir 11.1%market +4.2pp
P 15.3
F 12.1
V 10.7
4.6pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
02 IN
WSH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 6
11.6%Palantir 7.7%market +3.9pp
P 11.6
F 12.8
V 8.6
4.2pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
03 IN
TEX vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
14.3%Palantir 11.0%market +3.3pp
P 14.3
F 12.8
V 10.1
4.1pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
04 IN
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
13.0%Palantir 10.1%market +2.9pp
P 13.0
F 12.7
V 11.9
1.1pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
05 IN
BOS vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
14.3%Palantir 11.8%market +2.5pp
P 14.3
F 12.8
V 11.9
2.4pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
06 IN
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 6
11.6%Palantir 9.1%market +2.4pp
P 11.6
F 12.7
V 9.0
3.7pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
07 IN
MIL vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
12.4%Palantir 10.0%market +2.4pp
P 12.4
F 12.7
V 10.0
2.8pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
08 IN
NYM vs SDMichael King · slot 3
13.9%Palantir 11.7%market +2.2pp
P 13.9
F 12.8
V 10.2
3.7pp 1.164xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
09 IN
WSH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 5
12.0%Palantir 9.8%market +2.1pp
P 12.0
F 12.7
V 9.8
2.9pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
10
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1
15.6%Palantir 13.9%market +1.6pp
P 15.6
F 14.2
V 12.1
3.5pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
11 IN
WSH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4
13.9%Palantir 12.4%market +1.5pp
P 13.9
F 12.8
V 11.6
2.3pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
12 IN
TB vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
14.2%Palantir 12.7%market +1.4pp
P 14.2
F 14.2
V 13.3
0.9pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
13 IN
DET vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
9.7%Palantir 8.7%market +1.0pp
P 9.7
F 12.1
V 12.5
2.7pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
14 IN
SEA vs MILDustin May · slot 6
10.6%Palantir 9.8%market +0.9pp
P 10.6
F 12.4
V 9.6
2.8pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 890 avg 3 books
15 IN
PIT vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 6
12.1%Palantir 11.3%market +0.8pp
P 12.1
F 12.8
V 11.5
1.3pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
16 IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
11.6%Palantir 11.0%market +0.6pp
P 11.6
F 12.7
V 10.5
2.2pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
17
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
11.2%Palantir 10.7%market +0.5pp
P 11.2
F 12.2
V 11.3
1.0pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
18 IN
TEX vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
14.7%Palantir 14.4%market +0.4pp
P 14.7
F 12.8
V 12.6
2.2pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
19
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 2
12.0%Palantir 11.7%market +0.3pp
P 12.0
F 12.2
V 11.3
0.9pp 1.052xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
20 IN
MIN vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 7
12.2%Palantir 12.5%market -0.3pp
P 12.2
F 12.7
V 9.7
3.1pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
21 IN
DET vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
10.5%Palantir 11.0%market -0.5pp
P 10.5
F 12.1
V 11.8
1.6pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
22 IN
TB vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 2
14.3%Palantir 14.9%market -0.7pp
P 14.3
F 14.2
V 15.0
0.8pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
23 Lineup pending
BAL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5
11.8%Palantir 12.4%market -0.7pp
P 11.8
F 12.2
V 12.6
0.8pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
24 IN
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 7
13.2%Palantir 14.0%market -0.8pp
P 13.2
F 12.1
V 10.9
2.2pp 1.071xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
25 IN
MIL vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3
12.1%Palantir 13.0%market -0.9pp
P 12.1
F 12.5
V 12.1
0.4pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
26 IN
PIT vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 5
13.2%Palantir 14.1%market -0.9pp
P 13.2
F 12.5
V 15.4
2.9pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
27 IN
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 5
11.8%Palantir 12.8%market -1.1pp
P 11.8
F 12.8
V 11.8
1.1pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
28 Lineup pending
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
13.1%Palantir 14.6%market -1.5pp
P 13.1
F 12.7
V 13.2
0.4pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
29 IN
TEX vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3
14.9%Palantir 16.4%market -1.5pp
P 14.9
F 12.8
V 13.8
2.1pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
30 IN
TB vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5
12.7%Palantir 14.2%market -1.5pp
P 12.7
F 12.5
V 13.6
1.1pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
31 IN
ATL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6
12.5%Palantir 14.1%market -1.6pp
P 12.5
F 12.7
V 10.9
1.9pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
32 IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
13.2%Palantir 14.8%market -1.6pp
P 13.2
F 12.5
V 14.4
2.0pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
33 IN
CWS vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 4
11.9%Palantir 13.5%market -1.6pp
P 11.9
F 12.5
V 9.2
3.3pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
34 IN
CIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
14.1%Palantir 15.8%market -1.7pp
P 14.1
F 12.8
V 13.6
1.3pp 1.052xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
35 IN
ATL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5
12.2%Palantir 14.1%market -1.8pp
P 12.2
F 12.2
V 14.7
2.5pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
36 IN
CIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5
11.7%Palantir 13.5%market -1.9pp
P 11.7
F 12.4
V 12.8
1.2pp 1.052xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
37 IN
BOS vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
13.9%Palantir 15.9%market -2.0pp
P 13.9
F 12.7
V 14.6
1.9pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
38 IN
NYM vs SDMichael King · slot 5
11.8%Palantir 13.8%market -2.0pp
P 11.8
F 12.1
V 12.3
0.5pp 1.164xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
39 IN
BOS vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 4
14.2%Palantir 16.3%market -2.0pp
P 14.2
F 12.8
V 13.9
1.4pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
40 IN
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2
14.3%Palantir 16.4%market -2.1pp
P 14.3
F 12.8
V 14.6
1.7pp 1.071xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 510 avg 3 books
41 IN
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5
14.4%Palantir 16.7%market -2.3pp
P 14.4
F 12.8
V 15.0
2.1pp 1.071xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
42
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 4
13.0%Palantir 15.5%market -2.5pp
P 13.0
F 12.7
V 13.7
1.0pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
43 IN
TEX vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
11.7%Palantir 14.8%market -3.1pp
P 11.7
F 12.7
V 11.8
1.0pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
10.2%Palantir 13.9%market -3.7pp
P 10.2
F 12.1
V 13.8
3.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
45 IN
NYM vs SDMichael King · slot 2
14.5%Palantir 19.4%market -4.9pp
P 14.5
F 12.8
V 13.3
1.6pp 1.164xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
46 IN
BAL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
13.2%Palantir 18.4%market -5.1pp
P 13.2
F 12.2
V 14.7
2.4pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
47 IN
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4
13.3%Palantir 19.1%market -5.7pp
P 13.3
F 12.7
V 14.9
2.2pp 1.071xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
48 Lineup pending
PIT vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 1
9.0%Palantir 7.7%market +1.3pp
P 9.0
F 11.5
V 11.1
2.5pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
49 IN
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
8.5%Palantir 7.7%market +0.8pp
P 8.5
F 11.7
V 11.4
3.1pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
50 IN
MIN vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 1
10.8%Palantir 10.5%market +0.3pp
P 10.8
F 10.3
V 10.6
0.5pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
51 Lineup pending
ATH vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6
8.1%Palantir 9.2%market -1.1pp
P 8.1
F 3.7
V 8.2
4.5pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
52 IN
SEA vs MILDustin May · slot 5
12.5%Palantir 14.5%market -2.0pp
P 12.5
F 12.4
V 12.0
0.5pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
53 IN
TB vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1
5.7%Palantir 8.0%market -2.3pp
P 5.7
F 3.7
V 8.1
4.4pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
54 IN
CWS vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 1
5.6%Palantir 8.0%market -2.4pp
P 5.6
F 3.7
V 8.3
4.7pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
55 IN
MIL vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
14.3%Palantir 17.2%market -2.9pp
P 14.3
F 14.1
V 13.3
1.1pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
56 IN
ATH vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
12.4%Palantir 15.6%market -3.2pp
P 12.4
F 12.7
V 12.7
0.3pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
57 IN
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 3
13.1%Palantir 16.8%market -3.8pp
P 13.1
F 12.8
V 14.4
1.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 495 avg 3 books
58 IN
DET vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
13.1%Palantir 17.0%market -3.9pp
P 13.1
F 12.7
V 15.0
2.3pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
59
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 6
12.3%Palantir 16.3%market -4.0pp
P 12.3
F 12.8
V 13.3
1.0pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
60 IN
BAL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
13.8%Palantir 18.0%market -4.2pp
P 13.8
F 12.8
V 13.3
1.0pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
61 Lineup pending
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
13.3%Palantir 17.7%market -4.4pp
P 13.3
F 12.7
V 14.3
1.6pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
62 IN
SEA vs MILDustin May · slot 4
12.4%Palantir 17.0%market -4.5pp
P 12.4
F 12.4
V 13.3
0.9pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
63 IN
ATL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
11.4%Palantir 16.0%market -4.6pp
P 11.4
F 12.7
V 13.9
2.5pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
64 IN
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3
13.4%Palantir 18.4%market -4.9pp
P 13.4
F 12.5
V 13.6
1.1pp 1.071xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
65 IN
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
13.3%Palantir 18.4%market -5.1pp
P 13.3
F 12.5
V 15.6
3.1pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
66 IN
SEA vs MILDustin May · slot 1
12.9%Palantir 18.0%market -5.1pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 13.3
0.8pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
67 IN
MIN vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 5
10.6%Palantir 15.8%market -5.1pp
P 10.6
F 12.2
V 14.7
4.1pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
68 IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
14.1%Palantir 19.6%market -5.5pp
P 14.1
F 12.8
V 15.2
2.4pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
69 Lineup pending
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
11.9%Palantir 17.5%market -5.6pp
P 11.9
F 12.2
V 14.6
2.7pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
70 IN
ATL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 4
11.2%Palantir 17.0%market -5.7pp
P 11.2
F 12.2
V 14.5
3.3pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
71 IN
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
12.9%Palantir 18.7%market -5.8pp
P 12.9
F 12.5
V 16.2
3.8pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
72 IN
NYY vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 5
13.2%Palantir 19.2%market -6.0pp
P 13.2
F 12.7
V 16.4
3.7pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
73 Lineup pending
BAL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
11.7%Palantir 17.7%market -6.0pp
P 11.7
F 12.5
V 13.4
1.7pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
74 IN
PIT vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 4
14.2%Palantir 20.4%market -6.2pp
P 14.2
F 12.8
V 14.0
1.4pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
75 IN
ATL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1
12.9%Palantir 19.4%market -6.5pp
P 12.9
F 12.5
V 16.1
3.6pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
76 Lineup pending
TEX vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
11.2%Palantir 19.2%market -8.1pp
P 11.2
F 12.2
V 13.4
2.2pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
77 IN
ATL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 2
13.5%Palantir 21.7%market -8.3pp
P 13.5
F 12.5
V 15.1
2.6pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
78 IN
MIN vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 3
12.8%Palantir 21.1%market -8.3pp
P 12.8
F 12.8
V 15.1
2.3pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
79 IN
TEX vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
13.7%Palantir 22.5%market -8.7pp
P 13.7
F 12.8
V 14.4
1.6pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
80 IN
TB vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 4
13.2%Palantir 22.0%market -8.8pp
P 13.2
F 12.8
V 13.9
1.1pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
81 IN
CIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 3
12.9%Palantir 22.5%market -9.5pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 14.3
1.8pp 1.052xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
82 IN
BAL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
13.3%Palantir 23.0%market -9.7pp
P 13.3
F 12.2
V 15.8
3.5pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
83 IN
CWS vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 3
10.3%Palantir 23.3%market -12.9pp
P 10.3
F 11.7
V 11.2
1.3pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
84 IN
SEA vs MILDustin May · slot 3
12.8%Palantir 26.3%market -13.5pp
P 12.8
F 12.1
V 13.5
1.5pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books
85 IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
13.3%Palantir 27.0%market -13.7pp
P 13.3
F 12.7
V 14.3
1.6pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
86 IN
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
13.4%Palantir 29.0%market -15.6pp
P 13.4
F 12.8
V 18.8
6.0pp 1.071xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2481roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.