Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-08-19 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
86
Matched
321
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-19 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 IN
DET vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 1
12.5%Valinor 8.7%market +3.5pp
P 9.7
F 12.1
V 12.5
2.7pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
02 IN
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
11.9%Valinor 10.1%market +1.5pp
P 13.0
F 12.7
V 11.9
1.1pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
03 IN
PIT vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 5
15.4%Valinor 13.5%market +1.4pp
P 13.2
F 12.5
V 15.4
2.9pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
04 IN
DET vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 6
11.8%Valinor 10.5%market +0.9pp
P 10.5
F 12.1
V 11.8
1.6pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
05 IN
ATL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5
14.7%Valinor 13.5%market +0.7pp
P 12.2
F 12.2
V 14.7
2.5pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
06 IN
WSH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 6
8.6%Valinor 7.7%market +0.6pp
P 11.6
F 12.8
V 8.6
4.2pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
07 Lineup pending
BAL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 5
12.6%Valinor 11.9%market +0.2pp
P 11.8
F 12.2
V 12.6
0.8pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
08
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
11.3%Valinor 10.7%market +0.2pp
P 11.2
F 12.2
V 11.3
1.0pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
09 IN
TB vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 2
15.0%Valinor 14.2%market +0.2pp
P 14.3
F 14.2
V 15.0
0.8pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
10 IN
TB vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 3
13.3%Valinor 13.3%market -0.1pp
P 14.2
F 14.2
V 13.3
0.9pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
11 Lineup pending
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 5
13.8%Valinor 13.9%market -0.1pp
P 10.2
F 12.1
V 13.8
3.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
12 IN
PIT vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 6
11.5%Valinor 11.8%market -0.3pp
P 12.1
F 12.8
V 11.5
1.3pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
13 IN
BOS vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
11.9%Valinor 11.8%market -0.3pp
P 14.3
F 12.8
V 11.9
2.4pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
14 IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
14.4%Valinor 14.3%market -0.4pp
P 13.2
F 12.5
V 14.4
2.0pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
15 IN
WSH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 5
9.8%Valinor 10.0%market -0.5pp
P 12.0
F 12.7
V 9.8
2.9pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
16 IN
TB vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 5
13.6%Valinor 13.6%market -0.6pp
P 12.7
F 12.5
V 13.6
1.1pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
17 IN
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 6
9.0%Valinor 9.2%market -0.6pp
P 11.6
F 12.7
V 9.0
3.7pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 940 avg 3 books
18 IN
MIL vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
10.0%Valinor 10.1%market -0.6pp
P 12.4
F 12.7
V 10.0
2.8pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
19 IN
SEA vs MILDustin May · slot 6
9.6%Valinor 9.9%market -0.7pp
P 10.6
F 12.4
V 9.6
2.8pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 875 avg 3 books
20 IN
CIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 5
12.8%Valinor 13.0%market -0.7pp
P 11.7
F 12.4
V 12.8
1.2pp 1.052xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
21
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 2
11.3%Valinor 11.7%market -0.9pp
P 12.0
F 12.2
V 11.3
0.9pp 1.052xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
22 IN
WSH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 3
10.7%Valinor 11.1%market -0.9pp
P 15.3
F 12.1
V 10.7
4.6pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
23 IN
MIL vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3
12.1%Valinor 12.5%market -0.9pp
P 12.1
F 12.5
V 12.1
0.4pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
24 IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
10.5%Valinor 11.0%market -1.0pp
P 11.6
F 12.7
V 10.5
2.2pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
25 IN
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 5
11.8%Valinor 12.3%market -1.1pp
P 11.8
F 12.8
V 11.8
1.1pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
26 IN
BOS vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
14.6%Valinor 15.3%market -1.2pp
P 13.9
F 12.7
V 14.6
1.9pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
27 IN
TEX vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
10.1%Valinor 11.0%market -1.3pp
P 14.3
F 12.8
V 10.1
4.1pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
28 IN
WSH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 4
11.6%Valinor 13.0%market -1.4pp
P 13.9
F 12.8
V 11.6
2.3pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
13.2%Valinor 14.1%market -1.5pp
P 13.1
F 12.7
V 13.2
0.4pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
30 IN
NYM vs SDMichael King · slot 5
12.3%Valinor 13.3%market -1.5pp
P 11.8
F 12.1
V 12.3
0.5pp 1.164xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
31
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 4
13.7%Valinor 15.0%market -1.8pp
P 13.0
F 12.7
V 13.7
1.0pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
32 IN
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2
14.6%Valinor 15.8%market -1.8pp
P 14.3
F 12.8
V 14.6
1.7pp 1.071xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 510 avg 3 books
33 IN
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5
15.0%Valinor 16.2%market -1.8pp
P 14.4
F 12.8
V 15.0
2.1pp 1.071xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
34 IN
NYM vs SDMichael King · slot 3
10.2%Valinor 11.7%market -2.0pp
P 13.9
F 12.8
V 10.2
3.7pp 1.164xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
35 IN
CIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 1
13.6%Valinor 15.2%market -2.2pp
P 14.1
F 12.8
V 13.6
1.3pp 1.052xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
36 IN
BOS vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 4
13.9%Valinor 15.7%market -2.4pp
P 14.2
F 12.8
V 13.9
1.4pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
37 IN
TEX vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
12.6%Valinor 14.5%market -2.5pp
P 14.7
F 12.8
V 12.6
2.2pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
38
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXKumar Rocker · slot 1
12.1%Valinor 14.1%market -2.5pp
P 15.6
F 14.2
V 12.1
3.5pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Elite Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
39 IN
TEX vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3
13.8%Valinor 16.0%market -2.7pp
P 14.9
F 12.8
V 13.8
2.1pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
40 IN
MIN vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 7
9.7%Valinor 12.5%market -2.8pp
P 12.2
F 12.7
V 9.7
3.1pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
41 IN
TEX vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
11.8%Valinor 14.3%market -3.0pp
P 11.7
F 12.7
V 11.8
1.0pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
42 IN
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 7
10.9%Valinor 14.0%market -3.1pp
P 13.2
F 12.1
V 10.9
2.2pp 1.071xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
43 IN
ATL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6
10.9%Valinor 13.6%market -3.2pp
P 12.5
F 12.7
V 10.9
1.9pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
44 IN
BAL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 1
14.7%Valinor 17.7%market -3.7pp
P 13.2
F 12.2
V 14.7
2.4pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
45 IN
CWS vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 4
9.2%Valinor 13.0%market -4.4pp
P 11.9
F 12.5
V 9.2
3.3pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
46 IN
NYM vs SDMichael King · slot 2
13.3%Valinor 18.9%market -6.3pp
P 14.5
F 12.8
V 13.3
1.6pp 1.164xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
47 IN
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
18.8%Valinor 28.4%market -10.6pp
P 13.4
F 12.8
V 18.8
6.0pp 1.071xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 240 avg 3 books
48 IN
CWS vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 3
11.2%Valinor 22.7%market -12.3pp
P 10.3
F 11.7
V 11.2
1.3pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 325 avg 3 books
49 IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
14.3%Valinor 26.5%market -13.1pp
P 13.3
F 12.7
V 14.3
1.6pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
50 IN
SEA vs MILDustin May · slot 3
13.5%Valinor 25.8%market -13.1pp
P 12.8
F 12.1
V 13.5
1.5pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books
51 IN
MIA vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
11.4%Valinor 7.7%market +3.4pp
P 8.5
F 11.7
V 11.4
3.1pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
52 Lineup pending
PIT vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 1
11.1%Valinor 7.7%market +3.1pp
P 9.0
F 11.5
V 11.1
2.5pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
53 IN
CWS vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 1
8.3%Valinor 7.7%market +0.4pp
P 5.6
F 3.7
V 8.3
4.7pp 0.932xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
54 IN
TB vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 1
8.1%Valinor 7.7%market +0.1pp
P 5.7
F 3.7
V 8.1
4.4pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
55 IN
MIN vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 1
10.6%Valinor 10.6%market -0.4pp
P 10.8
F 10.3
V 10.6
0.5pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
56 IN
MIN vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 5
14.7%Valinor 15.2%market -1.0pp
P 10.6
F 12.2
V 14.7
4.1pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
57 Lineup pending
ATH vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6
8.2%Valinor 8.9%market -1.1pp
P 8.1
F 3.7
V 8.2
4.5pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 980 avg 3 books
58 IN
DET vs PITPaul Skenes · slot 5
15.0%Valinor 16.5%market -2.1pp
P 13.1
F 12.7
V 15.0
2.3pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
59 IN
ATL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 3
13.9%Valinor 15.6%market -2.2pp
P 11.4
F 12.7
V 13.9
2.5pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
60 IN
ATL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 4
14.5%Valinor 16.4%market -2.4pp
P 11.2
F 12.2
V 14.5
3.3pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
61 IN
SEA vs MILDustin May · slot 5
12.0%Valinor 14.0%market -2.5pp
P 12.5
F 12.4
V 12.0
0.5pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
62 IN
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 3
14.4%Valinor 16.4%market -2.5pp
P 13.1
F 12.8
V 14.4
1.6pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
63 IN
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 4
16.2%Valinor 18.2%market -2.6pp
P 12.9
F 12.5
V 16.2
3.8pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
64 IN
KC vs ATHJeffrey Springs · slot 1
15.6%Valinor 17.7%market -2.8pp
P 13.3
F 12.5
V 15.6
3.1pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
65 IN
NYY vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 5
16.4%Valinor 18.6%market -2.8pp
P 13.2
F 12.7
V 16.4
3.7pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
66 IN
ATH vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4
12.7%Valinor 15.1%market -2.9pp
P 12.4
F 12.7
V 12.7
0.3pp 0.924xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
67
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs BALChris Bassitt · slot 6
13.3%Valinor 15.7%market -3.0pp
P 12.3
F 12.8
V 13.3
1.0pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
68 Lineup pending
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
14.6%Valinor 17.1%market -3.1pp
P 11.9
F 12.2
V 14.6
2.7pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
69 IN
ATL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1
16.1%Valinor 18.8%market -3.3pp
P 12.9
F 12.5
V 16.1
3.6pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
70 Lineup pending
TOR vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
14.3%Valinor 17.1%market -3.4pp
P 13.3
F 12.7
V 14.3
1.6pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
71 IN
SEA vs MILDustin May · slot 4
13.3%Valinor 16.4%market -3.6pp
P 12.4
F 12.4
V 13.3
0.9pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
72 IN
MIL vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2
13.3%Valinor 16.7%market -4.0pp
P 14.3
F 14.1
V 13.3
1.1pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
73 Lineup pending
BAL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 3
13.4%Valinor 17.1%market -4.3pp
P 11.7
F 12.5
V 13.4
1.7pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 465 avg 3 books
74 IN
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4
14.9%Valinor 18.6%market -4.3pp
P 13.3
F 12.7
V 14.9
2.2pp 1.071xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
75 IN
PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
15.2%Valinor 19.1%market -4.6pp
P 14.1
F 12.8
V 15.2
2.4pp 1.091xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
76 IN
BAL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 4
13.3%Valinor 17.4%market -4.7pp
P 13.8
F 12.8
V 13.3
1.0pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
77 IN
LAD vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3
13.6%Valinor 17.7%market -4.8pp
P 13.4
F 12.5
V 13.6
1.1pp 1.071xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
78 IN
SEA vs MILDustin May · slot 1
13.3%Valinor 17.5%market -4.9pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 13.3
0.8pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
79 Lineup pending
TEX vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
13.4%Valinor 18.8%market -6.1pp
P 11.2
F 12.2
V 13.4
2.2pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
80 IN
MIN vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 3
15.1%Valinor 20.5%market -6.2pp
P 12.8
F 12.8
V 15.1
2.3pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
81 IN
PIT vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 4
14.0%Valinor 19.9%market -6.6pp
P 14.2
F 12.8
V 14.0
1.4pp 1.110xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
82 IN
ATL vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 2
15.1%Valinor 21.2%market -6.9pp
P 13.5
F 12.5
V 15.1
2.6pp 1.032xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
83 IN
BAL vs NYYWill Warren · slot 2
15.8%Valinor 22.4%market -7.5pp
P 13.3
F 12.2
V 15.8
3.5pp 1.066xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
84 IN
TEX vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
14.4%Valinor 22.0%market -8.3pp
P 13.7
F 12.8
V 14.4
1.6pp 1.215xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
85 IN
TB vs TORMax Scherzer · slot 4
13.9%Valinor 21.5%market -8.3pp
P 13.2
F 12.8
V 13.9
1.1pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
86 IN
CIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore · slot 3
14.3%Valinor 22.0%market -8.5pp
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 14.3
1.8pp 1.052xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2481roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.