Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home runs · three lanes per row.
Every hitter in the saved HR market-comparison artifact, shown as a dense baseball-data board. The strip compares Palantir, Fangorn, and Valinor; the chips disclose lineup, health, sample-size, park, weather, and recent-form context.
HR BOARD 2026-07-17 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-07-17
Palantir
9390 props
Brier 0.124
ECE 0.010
14d stable
Fangorn
9390 props
Brier 0.125
ECE 0.012
14d stable
Valinor
3795 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.007
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.
Home-run board
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2 |
18.0%Fangorn | 16.4%market | +8.9pp |
P
21.7
F
18.0
V
15.2
|
6.5pp | 1.126xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Brice Turang
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1 |
14.7%Fangorn | 10.0%market | +7.5pp |
P
17.3
F
14.7
V
11.9
|
5.4pp | 1.126xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 865 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
Michael Busch
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3 |
18.0%Fangorn | 17.8%market | +7.4pp |
P
20.9
F
18.0
V
16.8
|
4.1pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 440 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Jeremy Peña
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 1 |
14.7%Fangorn | 11.2%market | +6.3pp |
P
15.5
F
14.7
V
13.4
|
2.1pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 765 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 7 |
14.7%Fangorn | 11.9%market | +5.5pp |
P
16.2
F
14.7
V
11.1
|
5.0pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 705 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Iván Herrera
STL
Lineup pending
|
STL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2 |
14.7%Fangorn | 12.5%market | +4.9pp |
P
18.6
F
14.7
V
13.3
|
5.3pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3 |
14.7%Fangorn | 13.0%market | +4.4pp |
P
15.8
F
14.7
V
13.2
|
2.6pp | 1.069xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6 |
14.7%Fangorn | 13.1%market | +4.3pp |
P
16.9
F
14.7
V
13.4
|
3.5pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 09 | IN | MIL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3 |
14.5%Fangorn | 12.5%market | +4.2pp |
P
16.3
F
14.5
V
13.9
|
2.4pp | 1.126xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Alec Burleson
STL
Lineup pending
|
STL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3 |
14.7%Fangorn | 13.3%market | +4.1pp |
P
16.3
F
14.7
V
13.6
|
2.7pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 625 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Willi Castro
COL
IN
|
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1 |
13.5%Fangorn | 9.8%market | +4.1pp |
P
13.4
F
13.5
V
13.0
|
0.5pp | 1.117xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 885 avg 3 books |
| 12 | IN | SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7 |
13.2%Fangorn | 9.6%market | +3.4pp |
P
12.6
F
13.2
V
9.1
|
4.1pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 905 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Edouard Julien
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 6 |
13.5%Fangorn | 10.9%market | +3.0pp |
P
13.0
F
13.5
V
12.1
|
1.4pp | 1.117xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 790 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Ian Happ
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4 |
14.7%Fangorn | 14.8%market | +2.5pp |
P
19.4
F
14.7
V
16.3
|
4.7pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 550 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 4 |
14.7%Fangorn | 14.8%market | +2.5pp |
P
18.0
F
14.7
V
14.1
|
3.9pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 550 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Wyatt Langford
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1 |
14.7%Fangorn | 14.9%market | +2.4pp |
P
18.5
F
14.7
V
12.5
|
6.0pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 545 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Lawrence Butler
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4 |
14.7%Fangorn | 14.9%market | +2.4pp |
P
17.0
F
14.7
V
14.6
|
2.4pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 545 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5 |
14.5%Fangorn | 14.6%market | +2.1pp |
P
16.1
F
14.5
V
16.6
|
2.2pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 560 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5 |
13.5%Fangorn | 12.0%market | +1.7pp |
P
14.0
F
13.5
V
14.1
|
0.6pp | 1.117xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 700 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Brandon Nimmo
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3 |
14.5%Fangorn | 14.9%market | +1.7pp |
P
15.9
F
14.5
V
13.0
|
2.9pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 545 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Jose Altuve
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 3 |
14.5%Fangorn | 15.0%market | +1.6pp |
P
18.0
F
14.5
V
16.7
|
3.6pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 540 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Josh Jung
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 7 |
13.5%Fangorn | 12.6%market | +1.1pp |
P
12.3
F
13.5
V
9.1
|
4.4pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 665 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
IN
|
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4 |
13.3%Fangorn | 12.5%market | +0.6pp |
P
15.6
F
13.3
V
14.2
|
2.3pp | 1.117xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 5 |
13.5%Fangorn | 13.5%market | +0.2pp |
P
14.8
F
13.5
V
15.3
|
1.8pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5 |
13.5%Fangorn | 13.5%market | +0.2pp |
P
15.3
F
13.5
V
14.1
|
1.8pp | 1.069xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Lane Thomas
KC
IN
|
KC vs SDMichael King · slot 5 |
12.7%Fangorn | 12.5%market | -1.6pp |
P
10.5
F
12.7
V
17.0
|
6.5pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 1 |
12.0%Fangorn | 10.6%market | -1.9pp |
P
14.7
F
12.0
V
13.7
|
2.7pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 810 avg 3 books |
| 28 | IN | SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3 |
13.2%Fangorn | 15.7%market | -2.9pp |
P
16.5
F
13.2
V
14.9
|
3.3pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Nick Kurtz
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1 |
13.2%Fangorn | 26.5%market | -14.0pp |
P
16.2
F
13.2
V
15.3
|
3.0pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 265 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Cal Raleigh
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3 |
12.6%Fangorn | 25.8%market | -15.5pp |
P
14.6
F
12.6
V
16.0
|
3.4pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 275 avg 3 books |
| 31 | IN | KC vs SDMichael King · slot 3 |
18.0%Fangorn | 16.7%market | +8.6pp |
P
19.3
F
18.0
V
18.5
|
1.3pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 475 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Heliot Ramos
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5 |
14.5%Fangorn | 13.1%market | +3.6pp |
P
15.7
F
14.5
V
14.1
|
1.6pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1 |
12.7%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +3.4pp |
P
9.0
F
12.7
V
13.8
|
4.8pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Tyler Soderstrom
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5 |
14.7%Fangorn | 14.0%market | +3.3pp |
P
19.1
F
14.7
V
14.2
|
4.9pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 585 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Brendan Donovan
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6 |
13.2%Fangorn | 9.8%market | +3.3pp |
P
8.8
F
13.2
V
9.6
|
4.4pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 890 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Luis Arraez
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1 |
12.3%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +2.3pp |
P
6.9
F
12.3
V
12.8
|
5.9pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Drake Baldwin
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3 |
14.5%Fangorn | 15.3%market | +1.3pp |
P
13.2
F
14.5
V
14.5
|
1.3pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 530 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Jung Hoo Lee
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 7 |
12.0%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +1.1pp |
P
7.7
F
12.0
V
9.7
|
4.3pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1 |
12.0%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +1.1pp |
P
7.7
F
12.0
V
11.3
|
4.3pp | 1.069xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 40 | IN | SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1 |
14.7%Fangorn | 16.4%market | +0.8pp |
P
17.2
F
14.7
V
13.9
|
3.3pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
IN
|
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2 |
14.7%Fangorn | 17.0%market | +0.2pp |
P
17.3
F
14.7
V
14.0
|
3.4pp | 1.117xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 465 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Randy Arozarena
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5 |
13.5%Fangorn | 14.0%market | -0.3pp |
P
13.9
F
13.5
V
14.5
|
1.0pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 590 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Isaac Paredes
HOU
IN
Triple
|
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 5 |
13.9%Fangorn | 15.5%market | -0.5pp |
P
13.8
F
13.9
V
15.3
|
1.6pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 525 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5 |
13.5%Fangorn | 15.2%market | -1.5pp |
P
12.8
F
13.5
V
14.9
|
2.1pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 535 avg 3 books |
| 45 | IN | SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2 |
14.5%Fangorn | 18.4%market | -1.8pp |
P
16.3
F
14.5
V
15.1
|
1.8pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 425 avg 3 books |
| 46 | IN | KC vs SDMichael King · slot 1 |
14.0%Fangorn | 17.1%market | -2.0pp |
P
17.0
F
14.0
V
18.4
|
4.5pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 47 |
Matt Wallner
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 2 |
14.7%Fangorn | 19.5%market | -2.3pp |
P
17.7
F
14.7
V
15.1
|
3.0pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 395 avg 3 books |
| 48 | IN | KC vs SDMichael King · slot 4 |
14.0%Fangorn | 17.5%market | -2.5pp |
P
16.1
F
14.0
V
18.2
|
4.2pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 450 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Christian Walker
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 4 |
14.0%Fangorn | 17.7%market | -2.6pp |
P
16.3
F
14.0
V
16.3
|
2.4pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Austin Riley
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4 |
13.5%Fangorn | 16.4%market | -2.7pp |
P
12.8
F
13.5
V
15.2
|
2.4pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Josh Naylor
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4 |
13.5%Fangorn | 16.4%market | -2.7pp |
P
13.8
F
13.5
V
14.8
|
1.3pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 490 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
Lineup pending
Triple
|
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3 |
14.7%Fangorn | 20.5%market | -3.4pp |
P
17.3
F
14.7
V
15.1
|
2.6pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4 |
14.5%Fangorn | 19.9%market | -3.4pp |
P
17.7
F
14.5
V
13.8
|
3.9pp | 1.069xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 385 avg 3 books |
| 54 |
Willy Adames
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4 |
13.5%Fangorn | 17.1%market | -3.5pp |
P
15.3
F
13.5
V
15.5
|
2.0pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 465 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1 |
14.0%Fangorn | 18.8%market | -3.7pp |
P
16.3
F
14.0
V
16.1
|
2.4pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 2 |
14.5%Fangorn | 20.3%market | -3.8pp |
P
15.8
F
14.5
V
17.0
|
2.5pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 57 |
Matt Olson
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2 |
14.5%Fangorn | 21.2%market | -4.8pp |
P
17.6
F
14.5
V
15.8
|
3.1pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 58 | Lineup pending | SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2 |
13.5%Fangorn | 20.3%market | -6.8pp |
P
15.9
F
13.5
V
15.9
|
2.4pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 59 |
Shea Langeliers
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3 |
13.5%Fangorn | 20.3%market | -6.8pp |
P
15.2
F
13.5
V
15.2
|
1.7pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 60 |
Jake Burger
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 4 |
13.3%Fangorn | 19.7%market | -6.9pp |
P
11.5
F
13.3
V
13.1
|
1.8pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 390 avg 3 books |
| 61 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2 |
13.5%Fangorn | 20.5%market | -7.1pp |
P
14.5
F
13.5
V
14.4
|
1.0pp | 1.069xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 62 |
Jacob Wilson
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6 |
10.3%Fangorn | 8.9%market | -9.3pp |
P
8.4
F
10.3
V
10.0
|
1.9pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 980 avg 3 books |
Data context
772 sample flagsStatus1762roster/transaction rows
Lineups180confirmed starters
Triple2cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.