Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-06-01 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home runs · three lanes per row.

Every hitter in the saved HR market-comparison artifact, shown as a dense baseball-data board. The strip compares Palantir, Fangorn, and Valinor; the chips disclose lineup, health, sample-size, park, weather, and recent-form context.

Rows
44
Matched
153
Lineups
108
HR BOARD 2026-06-01 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 13.9%market +6.0pp
P 21.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.5pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
02
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 11.4%Valinor 11.1%market +5.8pp
P 20.4
F 11.4
V 11.4
9.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
03
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor 13.0%market +5.7pp
P 18.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
0.3pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
04
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4
 15.7%Valinor 12.4%market +5.5pp
P 17.6
F 15.7
V 15.7
1.9pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
05
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 9.3%market +5.4pp
P 19.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
06
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 13.3%market +5.1pp
P 18.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.0pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
07
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 9.8%market +4.9pp
P 13.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.1pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
08
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6
 17.9%Valinor 11.0%market +4.2pp
P 19.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.3pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
09
Bo Bichette NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3
 17.2%Valinor 11.7%market +4.1pp
P 17.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
10
Wyatt Langford TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor 14.4%market +4.0pp
P 20.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
11
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 6
 13.4%Valinor 10.9%market +3.8pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.9pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
12
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2
 14.2%Valinor 10.1%market +3.6pp
P 15.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.0pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
13
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3
 17.9%Valinor 15.6%market +3.6pp
P 20.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.3pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
14
Marcus Semien NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5
 11.4%Valinor 13.2%market +3.5pp
P 13.8
F 11.4
V 11.4
2.4pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
15
Mookie Betts LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5
 17.2%Valinor 15.9%market +3.5pp
P 20.1
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
16
Freddie Freeman LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2
 17.2%Valinor 15.6%market +3.4pp
P 20.0
F 17.2
V 17.2
2.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
17
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 12.5%market +3.1pp
P 21.5
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
18
Andy Pages LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 7
 13.4%Valinor 13.4%market +2.9pp
P 17.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
4.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
19
Willi Castro COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1
 11.4%Valinor 9.8%market +2.7pp
P 11.4
F 11.4
V 11.4
0.0pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
20
Corbin Carroll AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 17.5%market +2.7pp
P 22.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
4.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
21
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor 16.9%market +2.6pp
P 21.6
F 17.9
V 17.9
3.7pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
22
Ezequiel Tovar COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4
 11.1%Valinor 12.5%market +2.4pp
P 13.7
F 11.1
V 11.1
2.6pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
23
José Tena WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6
 15.7%Valinor 7.7%market +2.4pp
P 13.4
F 15.7
V 15.7
2.4pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
24
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
 14.2%Valinor 10.0%market +2.2pp
P 14.5
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.2pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
25
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 19.6%Valinor 16.4%market +2.1pp
P 21.3
F 19.6
V 19.6
1.7pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
26
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5
 14.2%Valinor 14.1%market +2.0pp
P 13.6
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.6pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
27
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 12.5%market +1.8pp
P 14.1
F 14.2
V 14.2
0.2pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
28
Edgar Quero CWS
IN
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 6
 11.4%Valinor 7.7%market +1.8pp
P 9.9
F 11.4
V 11.4
1.5pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
29
Jorge Soler LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 17.3%market +1.4pp
P 15.7
F 14.2
V 14.2
1.5pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
30
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5
 17.2%Valinor 15.8%market +1.2pp
P 15.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
1.4pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 510 avg 3 books
31
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 16.4%market +1.2pp
P 20.4
F 17.9
V 17.9
2.5pp 0.933xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
32
Victor Scott II STL
IN
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
 0.0%Valinor 7.7%market +1.0pp
P 7.7
F 0.0
V 0.0
7.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
33
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4
 17.2%Valinor 16.2%market +0.8pp
P 17.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.2pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
34
Kyle Tucker LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3
 14.2%Valinor 17.5%market +0.2pp
P 18.0
F 14.2
V 14.2
3.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
35
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 1
 4.7%Valinor 7.7%market -0.4pp
P 6.8
F 4.7
V 4.7
2.0pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
36
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2
 19.6%Valinor 19.3%market -0.7pp
P 20.8
F 19.6
V 19.6
1.2pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
37
Ketel Marte AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 2
 17.9%Valinor 20.5%market -1.4pp
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.9pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
38
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4
 17.9%Valinor --market -2.3pp
P 19.0
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.1pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
39
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4
 13.4%Valinor --market -2.8pp
P 12.6
F 13.4
V 13.4
0.8pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
40
Hunter Goodman COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2
 15.7%Valinor --market -3.7pp
P 16.4
F 15.7
V 15.7
0.7pp 0.972xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
41
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 4.7%Valinor --market -4.1pp
P 7.1
F 4.7
V 4.7
2.4pp 1.007xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
42
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1
 17.9%Valinor --market -4.3pp
P 19.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
1.2pp 0.898xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 315 avg 3 books
43
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 3
 11.4%Valinor --market -5.7pp
P 14.8
F 11.4
V 11.4
3.4pp 0.949xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
44
Shohei Ohtani LAD
Lineup pending
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1
 17.2%Valinor --market -9.7pp
P 17.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
0.6pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 245 avg 3 books

Data context

778 sample flags
Status1565roster/transaction rows
Lineups108confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.