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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-03 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-03
48 matched props 34 unmatched
Older: 2026-09-02

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 48
Grouped Pitchers 8
Books 2
Unmatched Inputs 34
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-03 | Raw sportsbook rows: 48 | Grouped pitcher entries: 8 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-03/strikeout_edges_2026-09-03.json
Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee
CLE vs TOR | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 5.13
Strongest Gap Over +18.06%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap +18.06% / Under gap --
Over +18.06%
FanDuel
4.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap +17.41% / Under gap --
Over +17.41%
FanDuel
3.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap +12.64% / Under gap -18.49%
Over +12.64%
FanDuel
3.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap +12.64% / Under gap -18.49%
Over +12.64%
DraftKings
3.5
O -152 / U +119
Over gap +11.00% / Under gap -16.98%
Over +11.00%
FanDuel
2.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap +3.48% / Under gap --
Over +3.48%
Model O 40.3% | U 59.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.8
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs KC | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 4.75
Strongest Gap Over +12.71%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap +12.71% / Under gap --
Over +12.71%
FanDuel
4.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap +10.93% / Under gap --
Over +10.93%
DraftKings
3.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap +8.00% / Under gap -13.95%
Over +8.00%
FanDuel
3.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap +7.65% / Under gap -13.50%
Over +7.65%
FanDuel
3.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap +7.65% / Under gap -13.50%
Over +7.65%
FanDuel
2.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap +0.49% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.4% | U 65.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.8
Luis Castillo headshot

Luis Castillo
CWS vs HOU | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 4.95
Strongest Gap Over +7.63%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap +7.63% / Under gap --
Over +7.63%
FanDuel
5.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap +6.28% / Under gap --
Over +6.28%
FanDuel
4.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap +4.30% / Under gap -10.47%
Over +4.30%
FanDuel
3.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap -3.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -5.05% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.9% | U 75.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.1
Kevin Gausman headshot

Kevin Gausman
CHC vs MIL | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 5.79
Strongest Gap Over +7.40%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap +7.40% / Under gap --
Over +7.40%
FanDuel
6.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap +6.05% / Under gap --
Over +6.05%
FanDuel
5.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap +0.99% / Under gap -6.91%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -3.56% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -560 / U --
Over gap -6.35% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -6.73% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 24.9% | U 75.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.4
Cal Quantrill headshot

Cal Quantrill
TEX vs TB | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 3.32
Strongest Gap Under +7.30%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -123 / U -104
Over gap -13.44% / Under gap +7.30%
Under +7.30%
FanDuel
3.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -12.41% / Under gap +6.36%
Under +6.36%
Model O 41.7% | U 58.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.7
Brandon Young headshot

Brandon Young
BAL vs BOS | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.76
Strongest Gap Under +6.08%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +122 / U -157
Over gap -12.22% / Under gap +6.08%
Under +6.08%
FanDuel
4.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap -11.03% / Under gap +5.05%
Under +5.05%
FanDuel
4.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap -11.03% / Under gap +5.05%
Under +5.05%
FanDuel
6.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap -4.34% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +260 / U --
Over gap -8.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -16.71% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -18.06% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 32.8% | U 67.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.3
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs MIA | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.93
Strongest Gap Under +3.10%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -9.08% / Under gap +3.10%
Under +3.10%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -8.65% / Under gap +2.78%
Under +2.78%
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -8.65% / Under gap +2.78%
Under +2.78%
FanDuel
7.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap -1.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -4.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -12.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -14.68% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -520 / U --
Over gap -15.09% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 37.2% | U 62.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.3
Hunter Brown headshot

Hunter Brown
HOU vs CWS | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 6.32
Strongest Gap Under +2.93%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -9.03% / Under gap +2.93%
Under +2.93%
FanDuel
6.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -9.03% / Under gap +2.93%
Under +2.93%
DraftKings
6.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap -8.34% / Under gap +2.29%
Under +2.29%
FanDuel
8.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap -1.13% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +176 / U --
Over gap -4.77% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -12.61% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -620 / U --
Over gap -15.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -15.41% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 43.6% | U 56.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.7

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.