Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-30 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-30

48 matched props 14 unmatched

Newer: 2026-08-31 Older: 2026-08-29

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 48

Grouped Pitchers 17

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 14

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27 2026-08-26 2026-08-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-30 | Raw sportsbook rows: 48 | Grouped pitcher entries: 17 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-30/strikeout_edges_2026-08-30.json

Matthew Liberatore

STL vs PIT | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.87

Strongest Gap Under +28.58%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -129 / U -101

Over gap -35.16% / Under gap +28.58%

Under +28.58%

BetMGM

5.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -34.39% / Under gap +27.61%

Under +27.61%

FanDuel

5.5

O -115 / U -111

Over gap -32.32% / Under gap +26.22%

Under +26.22%

Model O 21.2% | U 78.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.1

Drew Rasmussen

TB vs SD | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.23

Strongest Gap Under +20.03%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -27.01% / Under gap +20.03%

Under +20.03%

DraftKings

5.5

O +107 / U -136

Over gap -21.83% / Under gap +15.89%

Under +15.89%

FanDuel

5.5

O +112 / U -142

Over gap -20.69% / Under gap +14.84%

Under +14.84%

Model O 26.5% | U 73.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.2

Kumar Rocker

TEX vs MIL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.00

Strongest Gap Under +12.46%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -127 / U -102

Over gap -18.91% / Under gap +12.46%

Under +12.46%

FanDuel

4.5

O -122 / U -104

Over gap -17.91% / Under gap +11.98%

Under +11.98%

BetMGM

4.5

O -130 / U -105

Over gap -19.48% / Under gap +11.74%

Under +11.74%

Model O 37.0% | U 63.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.7

Chris Bassitt

BAL vs ATH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.85

Strongest Gap Under +11.89%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -110 / U -116

Over gap -17.97% / Under gap +11.89%

Under +11.89%

FanDuel

4.5

O +100 / U -128

Over gap -15.59% / Under gap +9.45%

Under +9.45%

BetMGM

4.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -14.37% / Under gap +7.26%

Under +7.26%

Model O 34.4% | U 65.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 61.2

Ranger Suarez

BOS vs NYY | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.77

Strongest Gap Under +11.75%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -18.73% / Under gap +11.75%

Under +11.75%

DraftKings

5.5

O +106 / U -137

Over gap -13.78% / Under gap +7.43%

Under +7.43%

FanDuel

5.5

O +108 / U -138

Over gap -13.32% / Under gap +7.26%

Under +7.26%

Model O 34.8% | U 65.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.1

Shota Imanaga

CHC vs CIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.48

Strongest Gap Under +9.60%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -16.71% / Under gap +9.60%

Under +9.60%

FanDuel

5.5

O -154 / U +122

Over gap -15.10% / Under gap +9.42%

Under +9.42%

DraftKings

6.5

O +112 / U -145

Over gap -15.10% / Under gap +8.75%

Under +8.75%

Model O 32.1% | U 67.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.0

Framber Valdez

DET vs LAD | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 5.24

Strongest Gap Over +9.58%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +110 / U -140

Over gap +9.58% / Under gap -15.53%

Over +9.58%

DraftKings

4.5

O +109 / U -137

Over gap +9.35% / Under gap -15.01%

Over +9.35%

Model O 57.2% | U 42.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.9

Seth Lugo

KC vs CLE | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 4.74

Strongest Gap Over +8.21%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -138 / U +108

Over gap +8.21% / Under gap -14.27%

Over +8.21%

DraftKings

3.5

O -158 / U +123

Over gap +4.95% / Under gap -11.03%

Over +4.95%

Model O 66.2% | U 33.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.3

Logan Gilbert

SEA vs TOR | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.03

Strongest Gap Over +5.80%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -162 / U +126

Over gap +5.80% / Under gap -11.88%

Over +5.80%

BetMGM

4.5

O -165 / U +125

Over gap +5.37% / Under gap -12.07%

Over +5.37%

DraftKings

4.5

O -172 / U +128

Over gap +4.39% / Under gap -11.49%

Over +4.39%

Model O 67.6% | U 32.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.8

Tyler Glasnow

LAD vs DET | 2 books

Play

Adj K 6.17

Strongest Gap Under +3.90%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O -105 / U -120

Over gap -9.67% / Under gap +3.90%

Under +3.90%

FanDuel

6.5

O +102 / U -130

Over gap -7.95% / Under gap +1.93%

Under +1.93%

Model O 41.5% | U 58.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 77.0

Max Scherzer

TOR vs SEA | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.11

Strongest Gap Under +3.79%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +102 / U -134

Over gap -10.55% / Under gap +3.79%

Under +3.79%

BetMGM

4.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -11.05% / Under gap +3.60%

Under +3.60%

FanDuel

4.5

O +114 / U -146

Over gap -7.78% / Under gap +1.70%

Under +1.70%

Model O 39.0% | U 61.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.0

Jeffrey Springs

ATH vs BAL | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.63

Strongest Gap Over +2.91%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +123 / U -157

Over gap +2.91% / Under gap -8.84%

Over +2.91%

FanDuel

3.5

O -162 / U +128

Over gap +2.78% / Under gap -8.47%

Over +2.78%

BetMGM

4.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap +1.24% / Under gap -8.53%

No Play

Model O 47.8% | U 52.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.6

Zebby Matthews

MIN vs CWS | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.98

Strongest Gap Under +2.83%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -165 / U +128

Over gap -8.95% / Under gap +2.83%

Under +2.83%

FanDuel

4.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap -5.37% / Under gap -0.48%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -5.02% / Under gap -2.09%

No Play

Model O 53.3% | U 46.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.4

Will Warren

NYY vs BOS | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 5.13

Strongest Gap Over +2.09%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap +2.09% / Under gap -9.07%

Over +2.09%

FanDuel

4.5

O -118 / U -108

Over gap +1.45% / Under gap -7.50%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap -0.56% / Under gap -5.58%

No Play

Model O 55.6% | U 44.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.0

Janson Junk

MIA vs WSH | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 3.08

Strongest Gap Under +1.60%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -8.59% / Under gap +1.60%

Under +1.60%

FanDuel

2.5

O -166 / U +130

Over gap -5.01% / Under gap -0.88%

No Play

DraftKings

2.5

O -167 / U +130

Over gap -5.15% / Under gap -0.88%

No Play

Model O 36.9% | U 63.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.5

Yusei Kikuchi

LAA vs PHI | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.34

Strongest Gap No Play +0.99%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -102 / U -125

Over gap -7.05% / Under gap +0.99%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -7.77% / Under gap +0.99%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O +114 / U -141

Over gap -3.28% / Under gap -1.96%

No Play

Model O 43.5% | U 56.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.7

Zack Wheeler

PHI vs LAA | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 7.17

Strongest Gap No Play +0.48%

Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

7.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -7.93% / Under gap +0.48%

No Play

DraftKings

7.5

O +120 / U -152

Over gap -3.38% / Under gap -2.39%

No Play

FanDuel

7.5

O +120 / U -154

Over gap -3.38% / Under gap -2.70%

No Play

Model O 42.1% | U 57.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 91.2

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.