Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-02 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-02

48 matched props 26 unmatched

Newer: 2026-09-03 Older: 2026-09-01

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 48

Grouped Pitchers 17

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 26

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-03 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-02 | Raw sportsbook rows: 48 | Grouped pitcher entries: 17 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-02/strikeout_edges_2026-09-02.json

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL vs CHC | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.86

Strongest Gap Under +24.21%

Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

7.5

O -128 / U +100

Over gap -30.35% / Under gap +24.21%

Under +24.21%

BetMGM

7.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -31.66% / Under gap +24.21%

Under +24.21%

DraftKings

7.5

O -118 / U -108

Over gap -28.34% / Under gap +22.29%

Under +22.29%

Model O 25.8% | U 74.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.6

Cam Schlittler

NYY vs LAA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.10

Strongest Gap Under +23.65%

Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

7.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -31.27% / Under gap +23.65%

Under +23.65%

FanDuel

7.5

O -138 / U +108

Over gap -29.25% / Under gap +23.19%

Under +23.19%

DraftKings

7.5

O -137 / U +104

Over gap -29.08% / Under gap +22.25%

Under +22.25%

Model O 28.7% | U 71.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.0

Brad Lord

WSH vs ATL | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 3.50

Strongest Gap Over +22.64%

Best Line 2.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

2.5

O +135 / U -173

Over gap +22.64% / Under gap -28.56%

Over +22.64%

Model O 65.2% | U 34.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 25.8

Jacob Lopez

ATH vs TEX | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 4.70

Strongest Gap Under +15.34%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -122 / U -104

Over gap -21.27% / Under gap +15.34%

Under +15.34%

DraftKings

5.5

O -117 / U -107

Over gap -20.24% / Under gap +14.63%

Under +14.63%

Model O 33.7% | U 66.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.7

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD vs STL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.99

Strongest Gap Under +12.36%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O -136 / U +106

Over gap -18.53% / Under gap +12.36%

Under +12.36%

DraftKings

6.5

O -129 / U +103

Over gap -17.23% / Under gap +11.64%

Under +11.64%

BetMGM

6.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -16.46% / Under gap +9.68%

Under +9.68%

Model O 39.1% | U 60.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 73.7

Landen Roupp

SF vs PIT | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.39

Strongest Gap Under +11.41%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -157 / U +123

Over gap -17.34% / Under gap +11.41%

Under +11.41%

FanDuel

4.5

O -150 / U +118

Over gap -16.25% / Under gap +10.38%

Under +10.38%

BetMGM

5.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -16.54% / Under gap +9.55%

Under +9.55%

Model O 43.8% | U 56.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.5

Eury Pérez

MIA vs KC | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.50

Strongest Gap Under +10.73%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -174 / U +129

Over gap -17.90% / Under gap +10.73%

Under +10.73%

FanDuel

4.5

O -154 / U +120

Over gap -15.03% / Under gap +8.95%

Under +8.95%

BetMGM

5.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -15.91% / Under gap +8.62%

Under +8.62%

Model O 45.6% | U 54.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.0

Noah Cameron

KC vs MIA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.51

Strongest Gap Under +9.79%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -163 / U +125

Over gap -16.21% / Under gap +9.79%

Under +9.79%

BetMGM

4.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -15.01% / Under gap +7.72%

Under +7.72%

FanDuel

4.5

O -146 / U +114

Over gap -13.58% / Under gap +7.50%

Under +7.50%

Model O 45.8% | U 54.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.6

Hayden Wesneski

HOU vs CWS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.45

Strongest Gap Under +8.07%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap -13.92% / Under gap +8.07%

Under +8.07%

DraftKings

4.5

O -139 / U +108

Over gap -13.40% / Under gap +7.16%

Under +7.16%

BetMGM

4.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -13.57% / Under gap +6.46%

Under +6.46%

Model O 44.8% | U 55.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.8

Trevor Rogers

BAL vs COL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.88

Strongest Gap Under +7.02%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -105 / U -130

Over gap -14.76% / Under gap +7.02%

Under +7.02%

DraftKings

5.5

O +106 / U -135

Over gap -12.08% / Under gap +6.09%

Under +6.09%

FanDuel

5.5

O +110 / U -140

Over gap -11.16% / Under gap +5.21%

Under +5.21%

Model O 36.5% | U 63.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.2

Bryce Miller

SEA vs BOS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.35

Strongest Gap Under +5.70%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -130 / U -105

Over gap -13.44% / Under gap +5.70%

Under +5.70%

DraftKings

4.5

O -111 / U -118

Over gap -9.53% / Under gap +2.79%

Under +2.79%

FanDuel

4.5

O -106 / U -120

Over gap -8.38% / Under gap +2.37%

Under +2.37%

Model O 43.1% | U 56.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.9

Joey Cantillo

CLE vs TOR | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.27

Strongest Gap Over +5.02%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap +5.02% / Under gap -11.12%

Over +5.02%

BetMGM

4.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap +4.14% / Under gap -11.12%

Over +4.14%

DraftKings

4.5

O -119 / U -108

Over gap +3.29% / Under gap -9.55%

Over +3.29%

Model O 57.6% | U 42.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.5

Grant Holmes

ATL vs WSH | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.57

Strongest Gap Over +3.28%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +130 / U -166

Over gap +3.28% / Under gap -9.17%

Over +3.28%

DraftKings

4.5

O +121 / U -155

Over gap +1.51% / Under gap -7.54%

Over +1.51%

BetMGM

4.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -0.86% / Under gap -6.76%

No Play

Model O 46.8% | U 53.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.2

Dylan Cease

TOR vs CLE | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 6.40

Strongest Gap Under +1.86%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -7.96% / Under gap +1.86%

Under +1.86%

BetMGM

6.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -8.84% / Under gap +1.86%

Under +1.86%

DraftKings

6.5

O -108 / U -118

Over gap -7.27% / Under gap +1.22%

No Play

Model O 44.6% | U 55.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.8

Davis Martin

CWS vs HOU | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 3.98

Strongest Gap No Play +1.33%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -112 / U -111

Over gap +1.33% / Under gap -6.77%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -113 / U -113

Over gap +1.11% / Under gap -7.21%

No Play

BetMGM

3.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -1.40% / Under gap -5.38%

No Play

Model O 54.2% | U 45.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 25.9

Tomoyuki Sugano

COL vs BAL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 3.55

Strongest Gap No Play +0.50%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -111 / U -114

Over gap -6.38% / Under gap +0.50%

No Play

BetMGM

3.5

O -115 / U -115

Over gap -7.26% / Under gap +0.28%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O +104 / U -132

Over gap -2.79% / Under gap -3.13%

No Play

Model O 46.2% | U 53.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.6

David Peterson

CHC vs MIL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.82

Strongest Gap No Play +0.31%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -102 / U -125

Over gap +0.31% / Under gap -6.37%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -0.41% / Under gap -6.37%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -106 / U -121

Over gap -0.65% / Under gap -5.56%

No Play

Model O 50.8% | U 49.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.2

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.