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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-29 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-29
41 matched props 20 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-30 Older: 2026-08-28

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 41
Grouped Pitchers 15
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 20
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-28 2026-08-27 2026-08-26 2026-08-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-29 | Raw sportsbook rows: 41 | Grouped pitcher entries: 15 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-29/strikeout_edges_2026-08-29.json
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs MIA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.82
Strongest Gap Under +32.46%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +102 / U -128
Over gap -38.10% / Under gap +32.46%
Under +32.46%
FanDuel
6.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -38.10% / Under gap +32.08%
Under +32.08%
BetMGM
6.5
O -105 / U -130
Over gap -39.82% / Under gap +32.08%
Under +32.08%
Model O 11.4% | U 88.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.4
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.18
Strongest Gap Under +23.11%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -28.96% / Under gap +23.11%
Under +23.11%
DraftKings
7.5
O -145 / U +112
Over gap -29.46% / Under gap +23.11%
Under +23.11%
BetMGM
7.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -28.61% / Under gap +21.50%
Under +21.50%
Model O 29.7% | U 70.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.3
Cal Quantrill headshot

Cal Quantrill
TEX vs MIL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.10
Strongest Gap Under +18.29%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap -24.99% / Under gap +18.29%
Under +18.29%
DraftKings
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -22.81% / Under gap +16.73%
Under +16.73%
FanDuel
4.5
O +132 / U -170
Over gap -21.66% / Under gap +15.60%
Under +15.60%
Model O 37.3% | U 62.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 18.4
Erick Fedde headshot

Erick Fedde
CWS vs MIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.63
Strongest Gap Over +17.35%
Best Line 2.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
2.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +17.35% / Under gap -24.80%
Over +17.35%
DraftKings
2.5
O -103 / U -124
Over gap +16.61% / Under gap -22.71%
Over +16.61%
FanDuel
2.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap +14.30% / Under gap -20.40%
Over +14.30%
Model O 67.3% | U 32.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.0
Blake Snell headshot

Blake Snell
LAD vs DET | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.17
Strongest Gap Under +11.28%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -17.13% / Under gap +11.28%
Under +11.28%
DraftKings
6.5
O -132 / U +106
Over gap -15.35% / Under gap +9.91%
Under +9.91%
BetMGM
6.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -14.01% / Under gap +7.23%
Under +7.23%
Model O 41.5% | U 58.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 76.7
Max Fried headshot

Max Fried
NYY vs BOS | 1 books
Strong
Adj K 5.75
Strongest Gap Over +9.63%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap +9.63% / Under gap -15.64%
Over +9.63%
Model O 64.2% | U 35.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.6
Carlos Rodón headshot

Carlos Rodón
NYY vs BOS | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.96
Strongest Gap Over +4.76%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap +4.76% / Under gap -10.71%
Over +4.76%
FanDuel
5.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap +4.30% / Under gap -10.36%
Over +4.30%
BetMGM
5.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +3.60% / Under gap -10.71%
Over +3.60%
Model O 52.4% | U 47.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.4
Martín Pérez headshot

Martín Pérez
ATL vs COL | 2 books
Play
Adj K 3.88
Strongest Gap Under +4.44%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +121 / U -154
Over gap -10.32% / Under gap +4.44%
Under +4.44%
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -11.58% / Under gap +4.29%
Under +4.29%
Model O 34.9% | U 65.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.4
Keider Montero headshot

Keider Montero
DET vs LAD | 3 books
Play
Adj K 3.48
Strongest Gap Under +3.67%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -9.68% / Under gap +3.67%
Under +3.67%
DraftKings
3.5
O -114 / U -112
Over gap -8.40% / Under gap +2.30%
Under +2.30%
BetMGM
3.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -7.51% / Under gap +0.58%
No Play
Model O 44.9% | U 55.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.1
Bailey Ober headshot

Bailey Ober
MIN vs CWS | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.60
Strongest Gap Over +3.40%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +128 / U -161
Over gap +3.40% / Under gap -8.95%
Over +3.40%
BetMGM
3.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap +1.91% / Under gap -8.61%
Over +1.91%
FanDuel
3.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap +1.21% / Under gap -7.27%
No Play
Model O 47.3% | U 52.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.2
Sandy Alcantara headshot

Sandy Alcantara
MIA vs WSH | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.72
Strongest Gap Over +3.34%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap +3.34% / Under gap -9.21%
Over +3.34%
DraftKings
4.5
O +113 / U -144
Over gap +2.26% / Under gap -8.23%
Over +2.26%
BetMGM
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap +1.59% / Under gap -9.21%
Over +1.59%
Model O 49.2% | U 50.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.8
Nick Martinez headshot

Nick Martinez
TB vs SD | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 3.96
Strongest Gap Over +2.59%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap +2.59% / Under gap -9.37%
Over +2.59%
FanDuel
3.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap +0.32% / Under gap -6.42%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -124 / U -105
Over gap -1.55% / Under gap -5.03%
No Play
Model O 53.8% | U 46.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.3
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs TB | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 3.30
Strongest Gap Under +2.35%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -101 / U -129
Over gap -8.93% / Under gap +2.35%
Under +2.35%
FanDuel
3.5
O +104 / U -132
Over gap -7.70% / Under gap +1.78%
Under +1.78%
BetMGM
3.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -6.30% / Under gap -1.32%
No Play
Model O 41.3% | U 58.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.9
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs CHC | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 3.94
Strongest Gap Under +2.30%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -8.38% / Under gap +2.30%
Under +2.30%
BetMGM
3.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap -8.81% / Under gap +2.11%
Under +2.11%
DraftKings
3.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -5.90% / Under gap -0.18%
No Play
Model O 53.4% | U 46.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.5
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs ATH | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 5.07
Strongest Gap No Play -0.15%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -7.14% / Under gap -0.15%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -5.68% / Under gap -0.31%
No Play
Model O 39.4% | U 60.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.6

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.