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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-27 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-27
27 matched props 6 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-28 Older: 2026-08-26

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 27
Grouped Pitchers 9
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 6
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-26 2026-08-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-27 | Raw sportsbook rows: 27 | Grouped pitcher entries: 9 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-27/strikeout_edges_2026-08-27.json
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.90
Strongest Gap Under +31.24%
Best Line 8.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
8.5
O -121 / U -106
Over gap -37.45% / Under gap +31.24%
Under +31.24%
FanDuel
8.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -36.83% / Under gap +30.78%
Under +30.78%
BetMGM
8.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -35.08% / Under gap +28.15%
Under +28.15%
Model O 17.3% | U 82.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.5
Noah Cameron headshot

Noah Cameron
KC vs TOR | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.13
Strongest Gap Under +10.20%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -126 / U -102
Over gap -16.45% / Under gap +10.20%
Under +10.20%
FanDuel
4.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -15.25% / Under gap +9.24%
Under +9.24%
BetMGM
4.5
O -118 / U -110
Over gap -14.83% / Under gap +8.32%
Under +8.32%
Model O 39.3% | U 60.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.5
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs STL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.63
Strongest Gap Under +6.80%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -12.88% / Under gap +6.80%
Under +6.80%
DraftKings
4.5
O -153 / U +119
Over gap -12.72% / Under gap +6.59%
Under +6.59%
BetMGM
4.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -11.43% / Under gap +3.47%
Under +3.47%
Model O 47.8% | U 52.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.0
Chris Sale headshot

Chris Sale
ATL vs LAD | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.60
Strongest Gap Under +5.85%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O +114 / U -145
Over gap -11.76% / Under gap +5.85%
Under +5.85%
BetMGM
7.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -11.54% / Under gap +4.25%
Under +4.25%
FanDuel
7.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -9.28% / Under gap +3.20%
Under +3.20%
Model O 35.0% | U 65.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.2
Yoshinobu Yamamoto headshot

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD vs ATL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.64
Strongest Gap Under +5.72%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -11.59% / Under gap +5.72%
Under +5.72%
DraftKings
6.5
O +117 / U -150
Over gap -11.80% / Under gap +5.72%
Under +5.72%
BetMGM
6.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -12.23% / Under gap +4.94%
Under +4.94%
Model O 34.3% | U 65.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 63.2
Jake Irvin headshot

Jake Irvin
WSH vs COL | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.56
Strongest Gap Under +4.62%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -12.58% / Under gap +4.62%
Under +4.62%
DraftKings
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -9.54% / Under gap +3.40%
Under +3.40%
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -7.53% / Under gap +1.48%
No Play
Model O 46.6% | U 53.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.1
Landen Roupp headshot

Landen Roupp
SF vs AZ | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.29
Strongest Gap No Play +0.32%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +106 / U -136
Over gap -6.49% / Under gap +0.32%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +116 / U -149
Over gap -4.25% / Under gap -1.89%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -4.46% / Under gap -2.83%
No Play
Model O 42.0% | U 58.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.8
Sean Manaea headshot

Sean Manaea
NYM vs MIL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.18
Strongest Gap No Play -0.57%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -5.51% / Under gap -0.57%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -152 / U +122
Over gap -4.00% / Under gap -1.37%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -4.41% / Under gap -2.58%
No Play
Model O 56.3% | U 43.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.1
Hayden Wesneski headshot

Hayden Wesneski
HOU vs NYY | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.38
Strongest Gap No Play -1.67%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +121 / U -155
Over gap -1.67% / Under gap -4.36%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -2.29% / Under gap -3.58%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -2.93% / Under gap -4.36%
No Play
Model O 43.6% | U 56.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.