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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-08-28 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-08-28
37 matched props 36 unmatched
Newer: 2026-08-29 Older: 2026-08-27

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 37
Grouped Pitchers 13
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 36
Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder
2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-27 2026-08-26 2026-08-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-08-28 | Raw sportsbook rows: 37 | Grouped pitcher entries: 13 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-08-28/strikeout_edges_2026-08-28.json
Eury Pérez headshot

Eury Pérez
MIA vs WSH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.47
Strongest Gap Under +17.48%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -24.41% / Under gap +17.48%
Under +17.48%
DraftKings
5.5
O -112 / U -114
Over gap -22.69% / Under gap +16.59%
Under +16.59%
FanDuel
5.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -22.47% / Under gap +16.37%
Under +16.37%
Model O 30.1% | U 69.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.6
Jacob Lopez headshot

Jacob Lopez
ATH vs BAL | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.98
Strongest Gap Under +16.57%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +110 / U -139
Over gap -22.35% / Under gap +16.57%
Under +16.57%
BetMGM
5.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -22.79% / Under gap +15.50%
Under +15.50%
Model O 25.3% | U 74.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.6
Cam Schlittler headshot

Cam Schlittler
NYY vs BOS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.99
Strongest Gap Under +15.45%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -21.53% / Under gap +15.45%
Under +15.45%
FanDuel
6.5
O -142 / U +112
Over gap -19.58% / Under gap +13.73%
Under +13.73%
BetMGM
6.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -17.42% / Under gap +9.68%
Under +9.68%
Model O 39.1% | U 60.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.9
Dylan Cease headshot

Dylan Cease
TOR vs SEA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.91
Strongest Gap Under +14.85%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O -168 / U +116
Over gap -23.84% / Under gap +14.85%
Under +14.85%
FanDuel
7.5
O -140 / U +112
Over gap -19.48% / Under gap +13.98%
Under +13.98%
BetMGM
7.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -20.33% / Under gap +12.37%
Under +12.37%
Model O 38.9% | U 61.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.3
Hunter Brown headshot

Hunter Brown
HOU vs NYM | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.12
Strongest Gap Over +9.51%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap +9.51% / Under gap -15.50%
Over +9.51%
DraftKings
5.5
O +114 / U -145
Over gap +7.83% / Under gap -13.74%
Over +7.83%
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +4.56% / Under gap -12.01%
Over +4.56%
Model O 54.6% | U 45.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.0
Brandon Young headshot

Brandon Young
BAL vs ATH | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.65
Strongest Gap Under +9.11%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -16.73% / Under gap +9.11%
Under +9.11%
DraftKings
4.5
O +119 / U -151
Over gap -14.77% / Under gap +8.95%
Under +8.95%
FanDuel
3.5
O -164 / U +128
Over gap -13.98% / Under gap +8.00%
Under +8.00%
Model O 30.9% | U 69.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.7
Tarik Skubal headshot

Tarik Skubal
LAD vs DET | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.65
Strongest Gap Under +6.61%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -154 / U +120
Over gap -12.69% / Under gap +6.61%
Under +6.61%
BetMGM
6.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -12.84% / Under gap +5.55%
Under +5.55%
DraftKings
7.5
O +121 / U -155
Over gap -9.66% / Under gap +3.63%
Under +3.63%
Model O 47.9% | U 52.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 83.0
Grant Holmes headshot

Grant Holmes
ATL vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.28
Strongest Gap Over +5.17%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap +5.17% / Under gap -11.27%
Over +5.17%
DraftKings
4.5
O -121 / U -107
Over gap +3.03% / Under gap -9.47%
Over +3.03%
BetMGM
4.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -1.40% / Under gap -6.56%
No Play
Model O 57.8% | U 42.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 62.2
Tanner Bibee headshot

Tanner Bibee
CLE vs KC | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.07
Strongest Gap Over +1.85%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -112 / U -111
Over gap +1.85% / Under gap -7.29%
Over +1.85%
FanDuel
4.5
O -128 / U +100
Over gap -1.46% / Under gap -4.68%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -2.77% / Under gap -4.68%
No Play
Model O 54.7% | U 45.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.5
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs CLE | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.52
Strongest Gap Over +1.68%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +1.68% / Under gap -7.76%
Over +1.68%
BetMGM
4.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap +1.49% / Under gap -8.19%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +123 / U -159
Over gap +1.09% / Under gap -7.32%
No Play
Model O 45.9% | U 54.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.0
Tomoyuki Sugano headshot

Tomoyuki Sugano
COL vs ATL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.19
Strongest Gap No Play +0.12%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -7.41% / Under gap +0.12%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -188 / U +146
Over gap -5.72% / Under gap -0.21%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O +126 / U -160
Over gap -5.15% / Under gap -0.64%
No Play
Model O 39.1% | U 60.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 17.7
Emerson Hancock headshot

Emerson Hancock
SEA vs TOR | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 3.94
Strongest Gap No Play -1.07%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -139 / U +110
Over gap -4.71% / Under gap -1.07%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -4.88% / Under gap -2.23%
No Play
Model O 53.4% | U 46.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 21.5
David Peterson headshot

David Peterson
CHC vs CIN | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.17
Strongest Gap No Play -1.22%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -154 / U +122
Over gap -4.46% / Under gap -1.22%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -5.62% / Under gap -1.67%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -4.16% / Under gap -1.83%
No Play
Model O 56.2% | U 43.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.0

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.