Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 29 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 186 lb |
| Debut | 2019-05-18 |
Player profile / Philadelphia Phillies
Luis Arráez
2B · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 10", 186 lb · Age 29
Club Philadelphia Phillies
Position 2B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 672 | 83 | 200 | 4 | 9 | .314 | .346 | .392 | .738 |
| 2025 | 675 | 66 | 181 | 8 | 11 | .292 | .327 | .392 | .719 |
| 2026 | 576 | 63 | 166 | 6 | 10 | .315 | .347 | .429 | .776 |
| 8 Seasons | 4109 | 499 | 1194 | 42 | 41 | .317 | .361 | .416 | .777 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
21
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.350 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.306 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.318 |
| Observed weight | 73% |
xwOBA
0.297
0.307
0.318
0.329
0.339
wOBA
0.325
0.337
0.350
0.364
0.376
ISO
0.101
0.111
0.122
0.133
0.142
K%
3.3%
3.9%
4.6%
5.3%
5.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.0%
4
Exit velocity85.6
24
Hard-hit%18.9%
2
xBA0.304
33
xSLG0.398
13
xwOBA0.306
51
-28 vs proj
BB%4.8%
13
Bat speed61.5
1
K%4.3%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · 2B
83
Arm Strength88.4 · 2B
60
Outs Above Avg12.0 · 2B
98
Range Runs8.8 · 2B
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · 2B
69
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
94
Sprint Speed26.8 · 2B
32
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.5% · rebadged research
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.8% · rebadged research
19
Correct Decisions65.3% · rebadged research
42
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
58
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · borderline
54
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.316 · insufficient sample
1
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276 · validated thin sample
65
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
35
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
18
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.028 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.017 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Arráez’s wOBA sits at 0.350, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.306 — a gap of 0.044, -1.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 583 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson, Jacob ATH · R | 0.39 | xwOBA on contactOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| McKinstry, Zach DET · L | 0.39 | In-zone contactBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Kwan, Steven CLE · L | 0.30 | Whiff ratexwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
| Keaschall, Luke MIN · R | 0.27 | Avg exit velocitySweet-spot rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4 | 2026-08-21 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 20 | 2026-09-02 | 6 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -1.127 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.334 xwOBA | 9 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ MIN0 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | BB, RBI, 2 R |
| 2026-05-20 @ AZ0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 |
| 2026-04-17 @ WSH0 HR | 0 RBI / 7 Ch | 0 E | 2-5 | R |
| 2026-04-15 @ CIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB |
| 2026-04-14 @ CIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 |