Mithrandir Metrics
Player Detroit Tigers Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Detroit Tigers

Zach Mckinstry

RF · Bats/Throws L/R · 5' 11", 180 lb · Age 31

Cards
22
Modules
2
Live Δ
yes
Club Detroit Tigers Position RF Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections
PARHHRSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
20243253264416.215.277.337.614
2025511681171219.259.333.438.771
2026381357142.211.294.310.604
7 Seasons20992364284161.228.299.368.667
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
13
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
26
Defense4 metrics
88
Speed2 metrics
41
Plate skills12 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
xwOBA preseason0.307
xwOBA current pace0.283
xwOBA rolling p500.291
Observed weight65%
xwOBA
0.270 0.280 0.291 0.303 0.313
wOBA
0.284 0.299 0.314 0.330 0.344
ISO
0.095 0.107 0.120 0.133 0.145
K%
16.1% 17.1% 18.1% 19.2% 20.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
7 -29 vs proj
Exit velocity84.8
17
Hard-hit%21.5%
4 -22 vs proj
xBA0.283
15
xSLG0.383
9
xwOBA0.283
28 -27 vs proj
BB%9.2%
59
Bat speed66.1
13
K%16.0%
85 +25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.9 · RF
95
Arm Strength96.6 · RF
74
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
95
Range Runs5.1 · RF
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · RF
20
Sprint Speed27.9 · RF
62
SB Success Rate25.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-03
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2% · rebadged research
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions67.9% · rebadged research
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50
Fastball Stuff+30
0
Mithrandir Stuff+21
0
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
55
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · insufficient sample
18
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
91
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
69
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346 · validated
77
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA McKinstry, Zach · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.303 0.283 2026-08-23: 0.2942026-08-24: 0.2942026-08-25: 0.2882026-08-26: 0.2882026-08-27: 0.2862026-08-28: 0.2862026-08-29: 0.2862026-08-30: 0.2872026-08-31: 0.2852026-09-01: 0.2842026-09-02: 0.2842026-09-03: 0.283 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

1Pitches 2025Season 100%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile McKinstry, Zach · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 52%52%Chase: 29%29%Whiff: 14%14%Zone contact: 94%94%Contact: 86%86%Hard hit: 22%22% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McKinstry, Zach · 2025 arsenal snapshot Eephus: 100.0% EP100% · 36 mphprimary pitch EP 100% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McKinstry, Zach · 2025 arsenal snapshot 6″12″18″24″ Eephus: 100% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 36.0 mphEP36 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 100.0% 29 30 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age31
Height5' 11"
Weight180 lb
Debut2020-09-16
Live layer

Delta / regression

xwOBA Δ-0.026
wOBA Δ+0.005

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.1σ gap
wOBA (actual)0.314
xwOBA (deserved)0.283

Mckinstry’s wOBA sits at 0.314, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.283 — a gap of 0.031, -1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 400 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

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Loftin, Nick KC · R 0.60 Strikeout rateGround-ball rate Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Hitting32026-07-27Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding192026-08-313 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +2.859
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.309 xwOBA | 11 HRProjection
2026-08-15 vs CWS0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E0-1 | K
2026-05-20 vs CLE0 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E2-4 | K, RBI
2026-04-15 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E1-2 | K
2026-04-14 vs KC0 HR | 0 RBI / 5 Ch | 0 E1-3 | 2B, R
2026-04-12 vs MIA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E1-4