Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 6' 0" |
| Weight | 223 lb |
| Debut | 2023-05-19 |
Player profile / Cleveland Guardians
Patrick Bailey
C · Bats/Throws S/R · 6' 0", 223 lb · Age 27
Club Cleveland Guardians
Position C
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 448 | 46 | 94 | 8 | 4 | .234 | .298 | .339 | .637 |
| 2025 | 452 | 47 | 91 | 6 | 1 | .222 | .277 | .325 | .602 |
| 2026 | 292 | 25 | 54 | 8 | 3 | .206 | .272 | .332 | .604 |
| 4 Seasons | 1545 | 147 | 315 | 29 | 9 | .225 | .284 | .338 | .622 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
60
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.310 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.309 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.309 |
| Observed weight | 58% |
xwOBA
0.285
0.297
0.309
0.322
0.333
wOBA
0.254
0.270
0.287
0.305
0.321
ISO
0.103
0.116
0.131
0.147
0.160
K%
22.2%
23.5%
25.0%
26.5%
27.9%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
47
Exit velocity89.1
64
Hard-hit%41.3%
63
xBA0.332
66
xSLG0.556
67
xwOBA0.309
56
BB%8.6%
53
+18 vs proj
Bat speed70.2
59
K%24.2%
42
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.3 · C
12
Catcher Throwing2.7 · C
94
Framing Runs4.4 · C
87
Pop Time1.9 · C
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.3 · C
8
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.4% · rebadged research
46
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.5% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · borderline
60
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
49
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.247 · validated thin sample
97
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.300 · insufficient sample
97
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333 · validated
61
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.328 · validated
94
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
127 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.018 |
positive regression
Regression watch
Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.
Bailey’s wOBA sits at 0.287, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.309 — a gap of 0.022, 0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 302 PA. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ballesteros, Moisés CHC · L | 0.82 | Whiff rateBat speed | Player · Projection |
| Cortes, Carlos ATH · L | 0.74 | Oppo rateBarrel rate | Player · Projection |
| Grissom, Vaughn LAA · R | 0.72 | Swing lengthFly-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| O'Hearn, Ryan PIT · L | 0.71 | xwOBA on contactSwing length | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 6 | 2026-09-01 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 7 | 2026-09-02 | 1 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp -0.148 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.305 xwOBA | 10 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs SD0 HR | 1 RBI / 12 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, K, RBI |
| 2026-05-20 @ DET0 HR | 1 RBI / 9 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | K, RBI |
| 2026-04-14 @ CIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 10 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 |
| 2026-04-11 @ BAL0 HR | 0 RBI / 11 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 |
| 2026-04-08 vs PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 11 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 |