Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 24 |
| Height | 6' 2" |
| Weight | 190 lb |
| Debut | 2023-09-08 |
Player profile / Texas Rangers
Evan Carter
CF · Bats/Throws L/R · 6' 2", 190 lb · Age 24
Club Texas Rangers
Position CF
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 162 | 23 | 27 | 5 | 2 | .188 | .272 | .361 | .633 |
| 2025 | 220 | 31 | 48 | 5 | 14 | .247 | .336 | .392 | .728 |
| 2026 | 393 | 44 | 65 | 8 | 14 | .193 | .291 | .315 | .606 |
| 4 Seasons | 850 | 113 | 159 | 23 | 33 | .216 | .310 | .372 | .682 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
23
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.278 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.292 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.270
0.281
0.292
0.304
0.314
wOBA
0.261
0.274
0.289
0.305
0.318
ISO
0.114
0.128
0.143
0.159
0.173
K%
20.8%
22.1%
23.5%
24.9%
26.1%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
26
-19 vs proj
Exit velocity84.4
15
Hard-hit%35.3%
35
xBA0.276
12
xSLG0.441
28
xwOBA0.278
24
-42 vs proj
BB%11.4%
82
+22 vs proj
Bat speed67.7
27
K%24.7%
39
-18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · CF
19
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
27
Outs Above Avg9.0 · CF
98
Range Runs8.0 · CF
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.8 · CF
93
Bolts37.0 · CF
89
SB Success Rate92.9% · CF
84
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
86
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.3% · rebadged research
91
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.4% · rebadged research
29
Correct Decisions69.6% · rebadged research
83
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · borderline
36
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · insufficient sample
92
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262 · validated thin sample
88
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
89
Resists FastballwOBA 0.324 · validated
78
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.340 · validated
84
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
185 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.039 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.028 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Carter’s wOBA sits at 0.289, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.278 — a gap of 0.011, -0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 405 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bazzana, Travis CLE · L | 0.70 | Swing lengthOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Norby, Connor MIA · R | 0.67 | Swing lengthPull rate | Player · Projection |
| Collins, Isaac KC · L | 0.63 | Isolated powerWalk rate | Player · Projection |
| Holliday, Jackson BAL · L | 0.60 | Sprint speedSwing length | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 1 | 2026-04-12 | Disciplined swing decisions drove the score |
| Fielding | 18 | 2026-08-28 | 5 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +3.384 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.318 xwOBA | 10 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 @ ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2B, 2 K, R |
| 2026-05-20 @ COL0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-17 @ SEA0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | K |
| 2026-04-15 @ ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-3 | BB, SB |
| 2026-04-14 @ ATH0 HR | 0 RBI / 0 Ch | 0 E | 0-1 | K |