Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs ATH | 5.93 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Carlos Rodón
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TOR | 5.90 | 25.2% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 0 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
DET vs CLE | 5.14 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATL | 5.08 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs DET | 4.97 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Spencer Strider
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIA | 4.84 | 23.6% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 0 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs STL | 4.60 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Luis Severino
Probable starter
|
ATH vs LAA | 4.46 | 22.9% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs COL | 4.39 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
NYM vs WSH | 4.36 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Zach Agnos
Probable starter
|
COL vs AZ | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs PIT | 4.20 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs NYM | 3.42 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Braydon Fisher
Probable starter
|
TOR vs NYY | 2.60 | 20.6% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 13.2 | 10 | 1 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.