Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs NYY | 6.55 | 31.5% | 33.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs CIN | 6.30 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CHC | 5.98 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs PHI | 5.85 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs WSH | 5.50 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TB | 5.47 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Ben Brown
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIL | 5.13 | 23.6% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TOR | 5.11 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs HOU | 5.05 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs ATH | 4.95 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SD | 4.69 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Braxton Garrett
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATL | 4.45 | 21.9% | 19.6% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Ryne Nelson
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SF | 4.45 | 21.3% | 23.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs CWS | 4.42 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs DET | 4.36 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Lance McCullers Jr.
Probable starter
|
HOU vs MIN | 4.25 | 24.5% | 25.4% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs AZ | 4.25 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs KC | 4.24 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs LAA | 4.20 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs SEA | 4.14 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs NYM | 4.14 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Griffin Canning
Probable starter
|
SD vs LAD | 4.07 | 20.5% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs STL | 3.89 | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs COL | 3.83 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs PIT | 3.83 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs CLE | 3.48 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs BAL | 3.33 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIA | 3.10 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.