Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs CLE | 6.77 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIA | 5.54 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs LAA | 5.38 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 4 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs TOR | 5.33 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs KC | 5.25 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TB | 5.25 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs BOS | 5.01 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Max Meyer
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYM | 4.96 | 23.7% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 5 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs WSH | 4.82 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Jovani Morán
Probable starter
|
BOS vs MIN | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TEX | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs BAL | 4.57 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Colin Rea
Probable starter
|
CHC vs HOU | 4.28 | 18.5% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 2 |
Kai-Wei Teng
Probable starter
|
HOU vs CHC | 4.26 | 25.0% | 30.5% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Lucas Giolito
Probable starter
|
SD vs ATH | 4.26 | 20.2% | 19.2% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Zac Gallen
Probable starter
|
AZ vs COL | 4.23 | 18.5% | 15.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 4 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SD | 4.14 | 22.1% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 2 |
Patrick Corbin
Probable starter
|
TOR vs PIT | 4.11 | 19.9% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Stephen Kolek
Probable starter
|
KC vs SEA | 4.11 | 18.0% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 0 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYY | 3.90 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Jake Irvin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs ATL | 3.90 | 20.3% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Chase Petty
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 3.88 | 21.4% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 0 |
Chris Paddack
Probable starter
|
CIN vs STL | 3.86 | 20.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Adrian Houser
Probable starter
|
SF vs CWS | 3.80 | 16.5% | 14.7% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 3 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs PHI | 3.80 | 19.6% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs LAD | 3.77 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs AZ | 3.75 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs DET | 3.67 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs MIL | 3.42 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Erick Fedde
Probable starter
|
CWS vs SF | 3.27 | 17.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 3.19 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs CIN | 2.89 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.