Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs NYM | 6.31 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
DET vs LAA | 6.15 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs PIT | 5.90 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs ATL | 5.77 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIN | 5.32 | 28.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 2 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs SEA | 5.31 | 22.2% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 5 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs LAD | 5.25 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable starter
|
HOU vs BAL | 5.19 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs SF | 5.09 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CHC | 5.01 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Shane Bieber
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CWS | 4.95 | 23.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 0 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs NYY | 4.70 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs DET | 4.67 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Owen Murphy
Probable starter
|
ATL vs TEX | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Randy Dobnak
Probable starter
|
KC vs SD | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs BOS | 4.62 | 25.0% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Max Meyer
Probable starter
|
MIA vs MIL | 4.58 | 23.7% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 5 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs WSH | 4.52 | 22.1% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 2 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs STL | 4.46 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs PHI | 4.46 | 25.2% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Patrick Sandoval
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TB | 4.42 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs HOU | 4.34 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CLE | 4.23 | 21.9% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Logan Allen
Probable starter
|
CLE vs PIT | 4.18 | 18.8% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 0 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TOR | 3.98 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs MIA | 3.85 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs AZ | 3.83 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs COL | 3.73 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Griffin Canning
Probable starter
|
SD vs KC | 3.70 | 20.5% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Zack Littell
Probable starter
|
WSH vs ATH | 3.58 | 18.8% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs CIN | 3.41 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.