Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gavin Williams
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs NYY
Score 43.6 | Lineup K 5.77
|
5.90 | 5.82 | -0.08 | 78.8% | 65.1% | 50.4% | 36.8% | 25.3% |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs TOR
Score 59.7 | Lineup K 5.33
|
5.84 | 5.71 | -0.13 | 77.7% | 63.7% | 48.9% | 35.2% | 24.0% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs WSH
Score 56.7 | Lineup K 5.31
|
5.69 | 5.59 | -0.10 | 76.5% | 62.1% | 47.1% | 33.6% | 22.6% |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs LAA
Score 59.9 | Lineup K 6.29
|
4.81 | 5.37 | +0.56 | 74.1% | 59.1% | 43.9% | 30.6% | 20.0% |
Kyle Harrison
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs ATH
Score 45.9 | Lineup K 5.21
|
4.75 | 4.89 | +0.14 | 68.2% | 51.9% | 36.6% | 24.1% | 14.8% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs CLE
Score 49.3 | Lineup K 4.89
|
4.74 | 4.79 | +0.05 | 66.9% | 50.3% | 35.1% | 22.8% | 13.9% |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs MIL
Score 33.2 | Lineup K 4.29
|
4.68 | 4.48 | -0.20 | 62.4% | 45.3% | 30.3% | 18.8% | 10.9% |
Patrick Corbin
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs PHI
Score 30.2 | Lineup K 4.95
|
4.11 | 4.33 | +0.22 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Emerson Hancock
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs BAL
Score 22.9 | Lineup K 4.36
|
3.90 | 3.97 | +0.07 | 54.0% | 36.5% | 22.6% | 13.0% | 6.9% |
Andrew Abbott
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs SD
Score 39.8 | Lineup K 4.63
|
3.63 | 3.95 | +0.32 | 53.6% | 36.2% | 22.3% | 12.7% | 6.8% |
Walker Buehler
Probable | projected
|
SD vs CIN
Score 32.7 | Lineup K 4.62
|
3.48 | 3.83 | +0.35 | 51.5% | 34.1% | 20.6% | 11.5% | 6.0% |
Miles Mikolas
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs SF
Score 31.1 | Lineup K 3.80
|
3.00 | 3.23 | +0.23 | 39.9% | 23.6% | 12.7% | 6.2% | 2.9% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.