Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs LAA
Score 78.6 | Lineup K 6.53
|
5.87 | 6.24 | +0.37 | 82.4% | 70.0% | 56.1% | 42.5% | 30.5% |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable | projected
|
MIL vs COL
Score 80.2 | Lineup K 6.12
|
5.98 | 6.17 | +0.19 | 81.9% | 69.3% | 55.2% | 41.5% | 29.6% |
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs KC
Score 65.9 | Lineup K 5.64
|
6.04 | 5.98 | -0.06 | 80.2% | 67.0% | 52.7% | 39.0% | 27.3% |
Spencer Strider
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs PIT
Score 74.4 | Lineup K 6.78
|
5.22 | 5.88 | +0.66 | 79.3% | 65.8% | 51.3% | 37.6% | 26.0% |
Kyle Bradish
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TOR
Score 64.8 | Lineup K 5.50
|
5.48 | 5.55 | +0.07 | 76.1% | 61.6% | 46.6% | 33.0% | 22.1% |
Nick Lodolo
Probable | projected
|
CIN vs STL
Score 63.6 | Lineup K 5.85
|
4.79 | 5.16 | +0.37 | 71.7% | 56.0% | 40.7% | 27.7% | 17.7% |
Ben Brown
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs SF
Score 52.0 | Lineup K 5.05
|
5.14 | 5.12 | -0.02 | 71.2% | 55.4% | 40.1% | 27.2% | 17.3% |
Will Warren
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs BOS
Score 43.0 | Lineup K 5.21
|
5.12 | 5.12 | +0.00 | 71.2% | 55.4% | 40.1% | 27.2% | 17.3% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs TEX
Score 55.2 | Lineup K 5.71
|
4.59 | 5.00 | +0.41 | 69.7% | 53.6% | 38.3% | 25.5% | 16.0% |
Jack Leiter
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs CLE
Score 44.0 | Lineup K 4.55
|
5.24 | 4.97 | -0.27 | 69.3% | 53.1% | 37.8% | 25.1% | 15.7% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs NYY
Score 47.1 | Lineup K 5.73
|
4.25 | 4.75 | +0.50 | 66.3% | 49.7% | 34.4% | 22.2% | 13.5% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs WSH
Score 45.0 | Lineup K 4.91
|
4.39 | 4.55 | +0.16 | 63.4% | 46.4% | 31.4% | 19.7% | 11.6% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs DET
Score 48.3 | Lineup K 5.06
|
4.05 | 4.40 | +0.35 | 61.1% | 43.9% | 29.1% | 17.8% | 10.3% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs CHC
Score 34.4 | Lineup K 4.36
|
4.26 | 4.24 | -0.02 | 58.6% | 41.2% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Griffin Canning
Probable | projected
|
SD vs NYM
Score 26.5 | Lineup K 4.61
|
4.08 | 4.19 | +0.11 | 57.8% | 40.3% | 25.9% | 15.4% | 8.5% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CIN
Score 31.3 | Lineup K 4.49
|
3.83 | 3.96 | +0.13 | 53.8% | 36.3% | 22.5% | 12.8% | 6.9% |
Keider Montero
Probable | projected
|
DET vs SEA
Score 25.2 | Lineup K 4.15
|
3.48 | 3.64 | +0.16 | 47.9% | 30.7% | 17.9% | 9.7% | 4.9% |
Zack Littell
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs AZ
Score 29.3 | Lineup K 3.78
|
3.58 | 3.59 | +0.01 | 47.0% | 29.8% | 17.3% | 9.2% | 4.6% |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs LAD
Score 13.6 | Lineup K 3.94
|
3.54 | 3.57 | +0.03 | 46.6% | 29.5% | 17.0% | 9.0% | 4.5% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.