Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs PHI
Score 72.7 | Lineup K 6.55
|
6.94 | 6.93 | -0.01 | 87.2% | 77.0% | 64.6% | 51.5% | 39.1% |
Zack Wheeler
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs TOR
Score 78.4 | Lineup K 6.71
|
6.39 | 6.65 | +0.26 | 85.4% | 74.3% | 61.3% | 47.9% | 35.6% |
Logan Gilbert
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs BAL
Score 66.8 | Lineup K 6.23
|
6.12 | 6.24 | +0.12 | 82.4% | 70.0% | 56.1% | 42.5% | 30.5% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs STL
Score 73.4 | Lineup K 6.10
|
5.92 | 6.10 | +0.18 | 81.3% | 68.5% | 54.3% | 40.6% | 28.7% |
Paul Skenes
Probable | projected
|
PIT vs LAD
Score 67.2 | Lineup K 6.14
|
5.71 | 5.94 | +0.23 | 79.9% | 66.6% | 52.1% | 38.4% | 26.8% |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs KC
Score 54.2 | Lineup K 5.06
|
5.38 | 5.23 | -0.15 | 72.5% | 57.0% | 41.8% | 28.6% | 18.5% |
Taj Bradley
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs DET
Score 53.5 | Lineup K 5.52
|
5.01 | 5.20 | +0.19 | 72.2% | 56.6% | 41.3% | 28.2% | 18.1% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs SEA
Score 39.3 | Lineup K 5.42
|
4.72 | 4.92 | +0.20 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
J.t. Ginn
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs MIL
Score 52.4 | Lineup K 5.39
|
4.52 | 4.83 | +0.31 | 67.4% | 51.0% | 35.7% | 23.3% | 14.2% |
Lucas Giolito
Probable | projected
|
SD vs CIN
Score 46.9 | Lineup K 5.81
|
4.26 | 4.76 | +0.50 | 66.5% | 49.9% | 34.6% | 22.4% | 13.6% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs CWS
Score 55.2 | Lineup K 5.18
|
4.44 | 4.72 | +0.28 | 65.9% | 49.2% | 34.0% | 21.9% | 13.2% |
Max Meyer
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs AZ
Score 28.3 | Lineup K 4.35
|
4.96 | 4.66 | -0.30 | 65.0% | 48.2% | 33.1% | 21.1% | 12.6% |
Colin Rea
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs COL
Score 52.6 | Lineup K 5.35
|
3.90 | 4.38 | +0.48 | 60.8% | 43.6% | 28.8% | 17.6% | 10.1% |
Slade Cecconi
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs NYY
Score 31.9 | Lineup K 4.81
|
4.18 | 4.34 | +0.16 | 60.2% | 42.9% | 28.1% | 17.1% | 9.8% |
Zac Gallen
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs MIA
Score 51.8 | Lineup K 5.38
|
3.85 | 4.32 | +0.47 | 59.9% | 42.6% | 27.9% | 16.9% | 9.6% |
Eric Lauer
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs PIT
Score 41.0 | Lineup K 4.72
|
3.89 | 4.15 | +0.26 | 57.1% | 39.6% | 25.3% | 14.9% | 8.2% |
Stephen Kolek
Probable | projected
|
KC vs TEX
Score 27.3 | Lineup K 4.48
|
4.11 | 4.12 | +0.01 | 56.6% | 39.1% | 24.8% | 14.6% | 8.0% |
Dustin May
Probable | projected
|
STL vs NYM
Score 29.4 | Lineup K 4.79
|
3.83 | 4.10 | +0.27 | 56.2% | 38.8% | 24.5% | 14.4% | 7.9% |
Nick Martinez
Probable | projected
|
TB vs BOS
Score 35.3 | Lineup K 4.38
|
3.85 | 3.99 | +0.14 | 54.3% | 36.9% | 22.9% | 13.2% | 7.1% |
Erick Fedde
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs ATL
Score 24.0 | Lineup K 4.58
|
3.65 | 3.89 | +0.24 | 52.6% | 35.1% | 21.5% | 12.1% | 6.4% |
Adrian Houser
Probable | projected
|
SF vs WSH
Score 33.4 | Lineup K 4.19
|
3.80 | 3.88 | +0.08 | 52.4% | 34.9% | 21.3% | 12.0% | 6.3% |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable | projected
|
COL vs CHC
Score 20.8 | Lineup K 3.67
|
3.41 | 3.42 | +0.01 | 43.7% | 26.9% | 15.0% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.