Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable | projected
|
DET vs CLE
Score 84.9 | Lineup K 6.75
|
6.15 | 6.54 | +0.39 | 84.7% | 73.2% | 60.0% | 46.5% | 34.2% |
Kevin Gausman
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs NYY
Score 54.4 | Lineup K 6.13
|
5.92 | 5.95 | +0.03 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 52.2% | 38.6% | 26.9% |
José Soriano
Probable | projected
|
LAA vs TB
Score 45.9 | Lineup K 5.12
|
5.93 | 5.63 | -0.30 | 76.9% | 62.6% | 47.7% | 34.1% | 23.0% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs TOR
Score 66.1 | Lineup K 5.60
|
5.61 | 5.62 | +0.01 | 76.8% | 62.5% | 47.6% | 34.0% | 22.9% |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs CWS
Score 69.6 | Lineup K 5.48
|
5.49 | 5.57 | +0.08 | 76.3% | 61.8% | 46.9% | 33.3% | 22.3% |
Jacob deGrom
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs BOS
Score 63.8 | Lineup K 5.77
|
5.21 | 5.47 | +0.26 | 75.2% | 60.5% | 45.4% | 31.9% | 21.2% |
Joey Cantillo
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs DET
Score 51.0 | Lineup K 5.26
|
5.35 | 5.32 | -0.03 | 73.6% | 58.4% | 43.1% | 29.9% | 19.5% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs MIL
Score 52.0 | Lineup K 5.47
|
4.93 | 5.13 | +0.20 | 71.3% | 55.6% | 40.3% | 27.3% | 17.4% |
Ranger Suarez
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs TEX
Score 52.1 | Lineup K 5.41
|
4.63 | 4.91 | +0.28 | 68.5% | 52.2% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 15.1% |
Luis Castillo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs WSH
Score 55.1 | Lineup K 5.29
|
4.56 | 4.84 | +0.28 | 67.6% | 51.1% | 35.8% | 23.4% | 14.3% |
Ben Brown
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs SF
Score 51.0 | Lineup K 5.05
|
4.76 | 4.82 | +0.06 | 67.3% | 50.8% | 35.5% | 23.2% | 14.1% |
Michael Soroka
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs CIN
Score 43.7 | Lineup K 5.05
|
4.27 | 4.52 | +0.25 | 63.0% | 45.9% | 30.9% | 19.3% | 11.3% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs HOU
Score 35.4 | Lineup K 4.39
|
4.38 | 4.33 | -0.05 | 60.0% | 42.7% | 28.0% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
Mike Burrows
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs KC
Score 44.2 | Lineup K 4.28
|
4.31 | 4.28 | -0.03 | 59.2% | 41.9% | 27.2% | 16.4% | 9.3% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs LAD
Score 23.1 | Lineup K 4.42
|
4.05 | 4.09 | +0.04 | 56.1% | 38.6% | 24.4% | 14.3% | 7.8% |
Kyle Freeland
Probable | projected
|
COL vs ATH
Score 32.0 | Lineup K 4.52
|
3.67 | 3.91 | +0.24 | 52.9% | 35.5% | 21.8% | 12.3% | 6.5% |
Cade Cavalli
Probable | projected
|
WSH vs SEA
Score 30.4 | Lineup K 4.96
|
3.42 | 3.77 | +0.35 | 50.4% | 33.0% | 19.8% | 10.9% | 5.6% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs MIN
Score 28.7 | Lineup K 4.10
|
3.45 | 3.61 | +0.16 | 47.4% | 30.2% | 17.5% | 9.4% | 4.7% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs NYM
Score 16.1 | Lineup K 4.10
|
3.10 | 3.36 | +0.26 | 42.5% | 25.8% | 14.3% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
Randy Vásquez
Probable | projected
|
SD vs BAL
Score 13.3 | Lineup K 3.68
|
3.10 | 3.21 | +0.11 | 39.5% | 23.3% | 12.4% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.