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The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-07-27 beta
PHI @ MIA, simulated 8,000 times.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Simulation verdict
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins
Wheeler, Zack vs Phillips, Tyler · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
PHI 48.5%MIA 51.5%
4.18 – 4.2mean score
8.38mean total
56%NRFI
10.2%extra innings
6.42 / 4.54starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
PHI (gold) vs MIA (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
PHI per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner, Trea | 4.814 | 1.03 | 0.117 | 1.612 | 0.412 | 1.048 | 0.406 |
| Schwarber, Kyle | 4.697 | 0.982 | 0.247 | 2.013 | 0.73 | 1.459 | 0.631 |
| Harper, Bryce | 4.594 | 0.964 | 0.168 | 1.724 | 0.717 | 0.921 | 0.57 |
| Marsh, Brandon | 4.486 | 1.152 | 0.138 | 1.848 | 0.349 | 1.076 | 0.616 |
| Bohm, Alec | 4.382 | 0.874 | 0.105 | 1.37 | 0.379 | 0.675 | 0.464 |
| Stott, Bryson | 4.272 | 0.963 | 0.075 | 1.409 | 0.385 | 0.787 | 0.4 |
| Realmuto, J.T. | 4.161 | 0.873 | 0.091 | 1.335 | 0.425 | 0.864 | 0.407 |
| Rincones Jr., Gabriel | 4.046 | 0.772 | 0.087 | 1.174 | 0.35 | 1.034 | 0.375 |
| Crawford, Justin | 3.931 | 0.893 | 0.04 | 1.174 | 0.331 | 0.807 | 0.313 |
Projected batting lines
MIA per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopez, Otto | 4.603 | 1.358 | 0.106 | 2.022 | 0.296 | 0.915 | 0.474 |
| Stowers, Kyle | 4.497 | 0.945 | 0.137 | 1.589 | 0.401 | 1.643 | 0.48 |
| Hernández, Heriberto | 4.387 | 0.953 | 0.173 | 1.728 | 0.425 | 1.329 | 0.549 |
| Edwards, Xavier | 4.282 | 1.05 | 0.061 | 1.445 | 0.474 | 0.843 | 0.425 |
| Hicks, Liam | 4.184 | 0.997 | 0.124 | 1.573 | 0.391 | 0.662 | 0.52 |
| Conine, Griffin | 4.074 | 0.921 | 0.165 | 1.643 | 0.365 | 1.31 | 0.547 |
| Sanoja, Javier | 3.967 | 1.006 | 0.058 | 1.398 | 0.281 | 0.605 | 0.389 |
| Mack, Joe | 3.852 | 0.882 | 0.161 | 1.568 | 0.294 | 1.119 | 0.528 |
| Marsee, Jakob | 3.725 | 0.684 | 0.054 | 0.963 | 0.43 | 1.03 | 0.29 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Turner, Trea vs Phillips, Tyler: HR +1 run (1-0)
Schwarber, Kyle vs Phillips, Tyler: OUT AIR
Harper, Bryce vs Phillips, Tyler: OUT AIR
Marsh, Brandon vs Phillips, Tyler: 1B
Bohm, Alec vs Phillips, Tyler: BB
Stott, Bryson vs Phillips, Tyler: 1B
Realmuto, J.T. vs Phillips, Tyler: BB +1 run (2-0)
Rincones Jr., Gabriel vs Phillips, Tyler: 1B +2 runs (4-0)
Crawford, Justin vs Phillips, Tyler: BB
Turner, Trea vs Phillips, Tyler: BB +1 run (5-0)
Schwarber, Kyle vs Phillips, Tyler: K
— Bottom 1 —
Lopez, Otto vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
Stowers, Kyle vs Wheeler, Zack: 2B
Hernández, Heriberto vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Edwards, Xavier vs Wheeler, Zack: K
— Top 2 —
Harper, Bryce vs Phillips, Tyler: 1B
Marsh, Brandon vs Phillips, Tyler: OUT GB
Bohm, Alec vs Phillips, Tyler: OUT AIR
Stott, Bryson vs Phillips, Tyler: BB
Realmuto, J.T. vs Phillips, Tyler: 2B +2 runs (7-0)
Rincones Jr., Gabriel vs Gibson, Cade: OUT AIR
— Bottom 2 —
Hicks, Liam vs Wheeler, Zack: 2B
Conine, Griffin vs Wheeler, Zack: BB
Sanoja, Javier vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Mack, Joe vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
Marsee, Jakob vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Crawford, Justin vs Gibson, Cade: 1B
Turner, Trea vs Gibson, Cade: K
Schwarber, Kyle vs Gibson, Cade: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Lopez, Otto vs Wheeler, Zack: 1B
Stowers, Kyle vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
Hernández, Heriberto vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Edwards, Xavier vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Harper, Bryce vs Gibson, Cade: BB
Marsh, Brandon vs King, John: K
Bohm, Alec vs King, John: OUT GB
Stott, Bryson vs King, John: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Hicks, Liam vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
Conine, Griffin vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
Sanoja, Javier vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Realmuto, J.T. vs King, John: OUT GB
Rincones Jr., Gabriel vs Nardi, Andrew: 1B
Crawford, Justin vs Nardi, Andrew: OUT AIR
Turner, Trea vs Nardi, Andrew: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Mack, Joe vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
Marsee, Jakob vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Lopez, Otto vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
— Top 6 —
Schwarber, Kyle vs Nardi, Andrew: OUT AIR
Harper, Bryce vs Nardi, Andrew: K
Marsh, Brandon vs Petersen, Michael: BB
Bohm, Alec vs Petersen, Michael: OUT AIR
— Bottom 6 —
Stowers, Kyle vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
Hernández, Heriberto vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Edwards, Xavier vs Wheeler, Zack: 2B
Hicks, Liam vs Wheeler, Zack: BB
Conine, Griffin vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Stott, Bryson vs Petersen, Michael: BB
Realmuto, J.T. vs Petersen, Michael: 1B
Rincones Jr., Gabriel vs Petersen, Michael: OUT GB
Crawford, Justin vs Petersen, Michael: OUT AIR
Turner, Trea vs Fairbanks, Pete: K
— Bottom 7 —
Sanoja, Javier vs Wheeler, Zack: 1B
Mack, Joe vs Wheeler, Zack: 1B
Marsee, Jakob vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
Lopez, Otto vs Kerkering, Orion: OUT AIR
Stowers, Kyle vs Kerkering, Orion: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Schwarber, Kyle vs Fairbanks, Pete: OUT GB
Harper, Bryce vs Fairbanks, Pete: OUT AIR
Marsh, Brandon vs Fairbanks, Pete: K
— Bottom 8 —
Hernández, Heriberto vs Kerkering, Orion: K
Edwards, Xavier vs Kerkering, Orion: OUT AIR
Hicks, Liam vs Kerkering, Orion: BB
Conine, Griffin vs Kerkering, Orion: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
Bohm, Alec vs Kempner, William: K
Stott, Bryson vs Kempner, William: K
Realmuto, J.T. vs Kempner, William: OUT GB
— Bottom 9 —
Sanoja, Javier vs Banks, Tanner: OUT AIR
Mack, Joe vs Banks, Tanner: HR +1 run (7-1)
Marsee, Jakob vs Banks, Tanner: OUT AIR
Lopez, Otto vs Banks, Tanner: 1B
Stowers, Kyle vs Banks, Tanner: 1B
Hernández, Heriberto vs Shugart, Chase: K