Mithrandir Metrics
The Mirror live sim Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Heads up The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-07-27 beta

PHI 7, MIA 8. Final.

The Mirror’s record: every call graded →

Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.

Final

PHI 7, MIA 8

The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 03:59:50Z UTC · back to slate

Final
7 – 8final score
15total runs
52% → 100%MIA win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline

Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins

Wheeler, Zack vs Phillips, Tyler · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate

2026-07-27
PHI 48.5%MIA 51.5%
4.18 – 4.2mean score
8.38mean total
56%NRFI
10.2%extra innings
6.42 / 4.54starter K means
Run distributions

Total runs across 8,000 sims

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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.

Team run distributions

PHI (gold) vs MIA (cyan)

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Paired bars per run count.

Projected batting lines

PHI per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Turner, Trea 4.8141.030.117 1.6120.4121.0480.406
Schwarber, Kyle 4.6970.9820.247 2.0130.731.4590.631
Harper, Bryce 4.5940.9640.168 1.7240.7170.9210.57
Marsh, Brandon 4.4861.1520.138 1.8480.3491.0760.616
Bohm, Alec 4.3820.8740.105 1.370.3790.6750.464
Stott, Bryson 4.2720.9630.075 1.4090.3850.7870.4
Realmuto, J.T. 4.1610.8730.091 1.3350.4250.8640.407
Rincones Jr., Gabriel 4.0460.7720.087 1.1740.351.0340.375
Crawford, Justin 3.9310.8930.04 1.1740.3310.8070.313
Projected batting lines

MIA per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Lopez, Otto 4.6031.3580.106 2.0220.2960.9150.474
Stowers, Kyle 4.4970.9450.137 1.5890.4011.6430.48
Hernández, Heriberto 4.3870.9530.173 1.7280.4251.3290.549
Edwards, Xavier 4.2821.050.061 1.4450.4740.8430.425
Hicks, Liam 4.1840.9970.124 1.5730.3910.6620.52
Conine, Griffin 4.0740.9210.165 1.6430.3651.310.547
Sanoja, Javier 3.9671.0060.058 1.3980.2810.6050.389
Mack, Joe 3.8520.8820.161 1.5680.2941.1190.528
Marsee, Jakob 3.7250.6840.054 0.9630.431.030.29
One representative simulation

A median-outcome game, batter by batter

This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.

— Top 1 —
Turner, Trea vs Phillips, Tyler: HR +1 run (1-0)
Schwarber, Kyle vs Phillips, Tyler: OUT AIR
Harper, Bryce vs Phillips, Tyler: OUT AIR
Marsh, Brandon vs Phillips, Tyler: 1B
Bohm, Alec vs Phillips, Tyler: BB
Stott, Bryson vs Phillips, Tyler: 1B
Realmuto, J.T. vs Phillips, Tyler: BB +1 run (2-0)
Rincones Jr., Gabriel vs Phillips, Tyler: 1B +2 runs (4-0)
Crawford, Justin vs Phillips, Tyler: BB
Turner, Trea vs Phillips, Tyler: BB +1 run (5-0)
Schwarber, Kyle vs Phillips, Tyler: K
— Bottom 1 —
Lopez, Otto vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
Stowers, Kyle vs Wheeler, Zack: 2B
Hernández, Heriberto vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Edwards, Xavier vs Wheeler, Zack: K
— Top 2 —
Harper, Bryce vs Phillips, Tyler: 1B
Marsh, Brandon vs Phillips, Tyler: OUT GB
Bohm, Alec vs Phillips, Tyler: OUT AIR
Stott, Bryson vs Phillips, Tyler: BB
Realmuto, J.T. vs Phillips, Tyler: 2B +2 runs (7-0)
Rincones Jr., Gabriel vs Gibson, Cade: OUT AIR
— Bottom 2 —
Hicks, Liam vs Wheeler, Zack: 2B
Conine, Griffin vs Wheeler, Zack: BB
Sanoja, Javier vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Mack, Joe vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
Marsee, Jakob vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Crawford, Justin vs Gibson, Cade: 1B
Turner, Trea vs Gibson, Cade: K
Schwarber, Kyle vs Gibson, Cade: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Lopez, Otto vs Wheeler, Zack: 1B
Stowers, Kyle vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
Hernández, Heriberto vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Edwards, Xavier vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Harper, Bryce vs Gibson, Cade: BB
Marsh, Brandon vs King, John: K
Bohm, Alec vs King, John: OUT GB
Stott, Bryson vs King, John: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Hicks, Liam vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
Conine, Griffin vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
Sanoja, Javier vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Realmuto, J.T. vs King, John: OUT GB
Rincones Jr., Gabriel vs Nardi, Andrew: 1B
Crawford, Justin vs Nardi, Andrew: OUT AIR
Turner, Trea vs Nardi, Andrew: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Mack, Joe vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
Marsee, Jakob vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Lopez, Otto vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
— Top 6 —
Schwarber, Kyle vs Nardi, Andrew: OUT AIR
Harper, Bryce vs Nardi, Andrew: K
Marsh, Brandon vs Petersen, Michael: BB
Bohm, Alec vs Petersen, Michael: OUT AIR
— Bottom 6 —
Stowers, Kyle vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
Hernández, Heriberto vs Wheeler, Zack: K
Edwards, Xavier vs Wheeler, Zack: 2B
Hicks, Liam vs Wheeler, Zack: BB
Conine, Griffin vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Stott, Bryson vs Petersen, Michael: BB
Realmuto, J.T. vs Petersen, Michael: 1B
Rincones Jr., Gabriel vs Petersen, Michael: OUT GB
Crawford, Justin vs Petersen, Michael: OUT AIR
Turner, Trea vs Fairbanks, Pete: K
— Bottom 7 —
Sanoja, Javier vs Wheeler, Zack: 1B
Mack, Joe vs Wheeler, Zack: 1B
Marsee, Jakob vs Wheeler, Zack: OUT AIR
Lopez, Otto vs Kerkering, Orion: OUT AIR
Stowers, Kyle vs Kerkering, Orion: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Schwarber, Kyle vs Fairbanks, Pete: OUT GB
Harper, Bryce vs Fairbanks, Pete: OUT AIR
Marsh, Brandon vs Fairbanks, Pete: K
— Bottom 8 —
Hernández, Heriberto vs Kerkering, Orion: K
Edwards, Xavier vs Kerkering, Orion: OUT AIR
Hicks, Liam vs Kerkering, Orion: BB
Conine, Griffin vs Kerkering, Orion: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
Bohm, Alec vs Kempner, William: K
Stott, Bryson vs Kempner, William: K
Realmuto, J.T. vs Kempner, William: OUT GB
— Bottom 9 —
Sanoja, Javier vs Banks, Tanner: OUT AIR
Mack, Joe vs Banks, Tanner: HR +1 run (7-1)
Marsee, Jakob vs Banks, Tanner: OUT AIR
Lopez, Otto vs Banks, Tanner: 1B
Stowers, Kyle vs Banks, Tanner: 1B
Hernández, Heriberto vs Shugart, Chase: K