Section III · Betting · Event markets · display only
Kalshi market comparison.
Exchange prices beside Mithrandir’s game and first-inning probabilities.
SOURCE Kalshi public market data
MODE display only
DATE 2026-10-26
Read this first
Mithrandir Metrics is not affiliated with Kalshi and does not place, recommend, or facilitate trades. A model probability is an estimate with real uncertainty, not a prediction of what will happen. A gap between the model and the market is a disagreement, and the market is often the one that is right. If you choose to trade event contracts, use money you can afford to lose. See our responsible gaming page.
Game winner · KXMLBGAME
| # | Game | Side (YES) | Phase | Kalshi bid/ask | Kalshi mid | Model fair | Gap | Model source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | MIL @ TB20:00 ET |
MIL | pregame | 47c / 48c | 47.5% | -- | -- | no model read yet |
| 02 | MIL @ TB20:00 ET |
TB | pregame | 52c / 53c | 52.5% | -- | -- | no model read yet |
Run in the 1st inning · KXMLBRFI
| # | Game | Kalshi bid/ask | Kalshi mid (YES run) | Model YRFI | Gap | Model source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | MIL @ TB20:00 ET |
45c / 46c | 45.5% | -- | -- | no model read yet |
Coverage note
1 Kalshi event(s) today have no model read yet, usually because the Mirror has not simulated that game (it needs confirmed lineups). They are listed without a fair price rather than hidden.