Mithrandir Metrics
Game markets 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Game market · model-only

NRFI / YRFI · first-inning context.

First-inning run probabilities from the model, shown separately from sportsbook line capture.

Games
16
Status
Model Only
Date
2026-07-18
NRFI / YRFI model only METHOD model only ROWS 16
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Model-only view

Model-only view. Live NRFI/YRFI prop lines from sportsbooks are not currently captured in our data pipeline. The probabilities shown are our model's first-inning projection based on starter quality, top-of-lineup quality, park, and weather. When line data is available, we will add edge calculation.

First-inning board
#GameStartersModel NRFIModel YRFI1st inn runsRead
01
PIT @ CLE824414
Jared JonesGavin Williams
 49.8% 50.2% 0.70 model onlymodel-only projection
02
PIT @ CLE824412
--Logan Allen
 50.2% 49.8% 0.69 model onlymodel-only projection
03
MIN @ CHC824657
Taj BradleyMatthew Boyd
 49.5% 50.5% 0.70 model onlymodel-only projection
04
CWS @ TOR822790
Davis MartinShane Bieber
 48.2% 51.8% 0.73 model onlymodel-only projection
05
CIN @ COL824331
Rhett LowderTomoyuki Sugano
 48.0% 52.0% 0.73 model onlymodel-only projection
06
NYM @ PHI823441
Sean ManaeaJesús Luzardo
 48.0% 52.0% 0.73 model onlymodel-only projection
07
BAL @ HOU824169
Trevor RogersSpencer Arrighetti
 47.5% 52.5% 0.74 model onlymodel-only projection
08
SD @ KC824088
Griffin CanningRandy Dobnak
 47.0% 53.0% 0.75 model onlymodel-only projection
09
STL @ AZ825059
Dustin MayBrandon Pfaadt
 48.3% 51.7% 0.73 model onlymodel-only projection
10
TB @ BOS824738
Ian SeymourPatrick Sandoval
 49.3% 50.7% 0.71 model onlymodel-only projection
11
TEX @ ATL824899
MacKenzie GoreOwen Murphy
 48.4% 51.6% 0.72 model onlymodel-only projection
12
MIA @ MIL823763
Max MeyerShane Drohan
 51.2% 48.8% 0.67 model onlymodel-only projection
13
SF @ SEA823116
Logan WebbBryan Woo
 50.0% 50.0% 0.69 model onlymodel-only projection
14
LAD @ NYY823523
Emmet SheehanRyan Weathers
 47.4% 52.6% 0.75 model onlymodel-only projection
15
WSH @ ATH824979
Zack LittellJ.T. Ginn
 48.4% 51.6% 0.72 model onlymodel-only projection
16
DET @ LAA824008
Tarik SkubalGrayson Rodriguez
 47.6% 52.4% 0.74 model onlymodel-only projection