Mithrandir Metrics
Game markets 2026-10-26 Refreshed Oct 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Game market · model-only

NRFI and YRFI.

First-inning run probabilities with model and market context kept distinct.

Games
1
Status
Model Only
Date
2026-10-26
NRFI / YRFI model only METHOD model only ROWS 1
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Model-only view

Model-only view. Live NRFI/YRFI prop lines from sportsbooks are not currently captured in our data pipeline. The probabilities shown are our model's first-inning projection based on starter quality, top-of-lineup quality, park, and weather. When line data is available, we will add the model-market gap.

First-inning board
#GameStartersModel NRFIModel YRFI1st inn runsRead
01
MIL @ TB849804
Robert GasserFreddy Peralta
 50.3% 49.7% 0.69 model onlymodel-only projection