Mithrandir Metrics
Game markets 2026-06-01 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Game market · model-only

NRFI / YRFI · first-inning context.

First-inning run probabilities from the model, shown separately from sportsbook line capture.

Games
9
Status
Model Only
Date
2026-06-01
NRFI / YRFI model only METHOD model only ROWS 9
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Model-only view

Model-only view. Live NRFI/YRFI prop lines from sportsbooks are not currently captured in our data pipeline. The probabilities shown are our model's first-inning projection based on starter quality, top-of-lineup quality, park, and weather. When line data is available, we will add edge calculation.

First-inning board
#GameStartersModel NRFIModel YRFI1st inn runsRead
01
DET @ TB822974
Ty MaddenGriffin Jax
 50.3% 49.7% 0.69 model onlymodel-only projection
02
MIA @ WSH822730
Sandy AlcantaraCade Cavalli
 50.0% 50.0% 0.69 model onlymodel-only projection
03
KC @ CIN824510
Luinder AvilaLyon Richardson
 49.8% 50.2% 0.70 model onlymodel-only projection
04
CWS @ MIN823702
David SandlinJoe Ryan
 49.6% 50.4% 0.70 model onlymodel-only projection
05
SF @ MIL823781
Landen RouppShane Drohan
 50.2% 49.8% 0.69 model onlymodel-only projection
06
TEX @ STL823050
Jacob deGromMichael McGreevy
 49.5% 50.5% 0.70 model onlymodel-only projection
07
COL @ LAA824027
Kyle FreelandJosé Soriano
 46.7% 53.3% 0.76 model onlymodel-only projection
08
LAD @ AZ825078
Emmet SheehanEduardo Rodriguez
 48.4% 51.6% 0.73 model onlymodel-only projection
09
NYM @ SEA823131
Austin WarrenEmerson Hancock
 49.3% 50.7% 0.71 model onlymodel-only projection