Public Model Surface

Fangorn Model - 2026-10-04

Random Forest engine built to identify nonlinear home run market gaps.

Fangorn is the sharp decision layer within the Mithrandir model system.

View Core Board Parlay Overlay Research Confidence Compare Open Artifacts

Fangorn Snapshot

Slate 2026-10-04

Core 3

Select 3

Conviction 0

Parlay Overlay 0

← 2026-10-05 2026-10-03 →

Lane Health 2026-10-26

Palantir 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d error rising

Fangorn 22485 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error rising

Valinor 16797 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.002 14d error rising

Daily Focus

Fangorn Top Signals Today

The cleanest at-a-glance Fangorn reads for today’s slate, separated by safest consensus, upside, and parlay utility.

Best Consensus Play

No qualifying play

No High Agreement Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Upside Play

No qualifying play

No Breakout Divergence Fangorn play qualified today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Best Parlay Piece

No qualifying play

No Fangorn play cleared the parlay-probability filter today. | --

Mixed Read Lean

This slot does not have a qualifying Fangorn play on the current slate.

Today's Fangorn Board: 0 High Agreement 0 Upside Signals 6 Mixed Reads 0 Caution Flags

Daily Fangorn Boards

Home Run Picks

Shareable daily HR picks from the Random Forest engine, organized by how the internal strategy layer actually uses them.

Agreement Overlay

How to read the model tags

These tags show how the broader HR model stack reads each Fangorn pick idea. Consensus tags are steadier, upside tags are sharper, and caution tags mean the models are split.

Consensus Support Supported Mixed Read Upside Signal Caution

Core

Top 10 singles by calibrated Fangorn probability.

Grouped Ideas 3 Market Rows 7 Artifact

Brice Turang

MIL vs SD | vs Michael King

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 15.5%

Market Gap 5.1%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 14.9% Adjusted from 15.5% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.6% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Strong Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Michael King, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +865 15.5% 5.1% Watch Zone

William Contreras

MIL vs SD | vs Michael King

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 14.2%

Market Gap 1.2%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 14.6% Adjusted from 14.2% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.4% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Michael King, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

BetMGM Best +670 14.2% 1.2% Watch Zone

DraftKings +670 14.2% 1.2% Watch Zone

FanDuel +670 14.2% 1.2% Watch Zone

Ozzie Albies

ATL vs LAD | vs Blake Snell

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 13.4%

Market Gap -0.6%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 14.2% Adjusted from 13.4% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.8% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Strong Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Blake Snell, with batting 5 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +615 13.4% -0.6% Watch Zone

FanDuel +615 13.4% -0.6% Watch Zone

BetMGM +610 13.4% -0.7% Watch Zone

Select

Largest model-market HR gaps from the Fangorn stack.

Grouped Ideas 3 Market Rows 5 Artifact

Brice Turang

MIL vs SD | vs Michael King

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 1

Calibrated Prob 15.5%

Market Gap 5.1%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 14.9% Adjusted from 15.5% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.6% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Strong Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Michael King, with batting 1 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +865 15.5% 5.1% Watch Zone

William Contreras

MIL vs SD | vs Michael King

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 3 books Batting 3

Calibrated Prob 14.2%

Market Gap 1.2%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 14.6% Adjusted from 14.2% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.4% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Caution Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.

Damage Moderate Damage Downgraded Trust

Watch Zone look against Michael King, with batting 3 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

BetMGM Best +670 14.2% 1.2% Watch Zone

DraftKings +670 14.2% 1.2% Watch Zone

FanDuel +670 14.2% 1.2% Watch Zone

Ozzie Albies

ATL vs LAD | vs Blake Snell

1+ HR Over Caution Play 0.25 Unit Mixed Read Lean

1 line option 1 book Batting 5

Calibrated Prob 13.4%

Market Gap -0.6%

Confidence Watch Zone

Hybrid Confidence 14.2% Adjusted from 13.4% model read

Risky

Confidence Disagreement Aligned 0.8% gap between hybrid and anchored confidence

Aligned Full Play

Exposure Map Standard Exposure Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.

Damage Strong Damage Neutral Trust

Watch Zone look against Blake Snell, with batting 5 and a neutral run environment.

1+ HR Best available highlighted

DraftKings Best +615 13.4% -0.6% Watch Zone

Conviction

Highest-conviction filtered HR singles from the current Fangorn layer.

Grouped Ideas 0 Artifact

No conviction Fangorn picks were saved for this slate.

Overlay

Parlay Overlay

Best distinct two-leg Fangorn HR parlay concepts from the saved overlay artifact.

Artifact

No Fangorn parlay overlay was saved for this slate.