Section III · Betting · 2026-09-11

COL at DET

Mason Adams vs Framber Valdez · 6:40 PM ET

Scheduled 6:40 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean COL or DET?

The run projection leans DET over COL.

Projected runs: COL 4.1, DET 4.5. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs COL 4.1 · DET 4.5 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.6 · Market 8.5 priced gap unavailable

Run line COL 1.5 · DET -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 50.8% · YRFI 49.2% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 0 No real output for this game

Fangorn 0 No real output for this game

Valinor 0 No real output for this game

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

0 matched rows

No matched player rows

Player boards may still be publishing, or this game has no eligible current rows.

Kalshi exchange context

Colorado win contract 36.5% Bid 36c · ask 37c

Detroit win contract 63.5% Bid 63c · ask 64c

First inning run: Yes 46.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.