Section III · Betting · 2026-09-11

PIT at CHC

Wilber Dotel vs Shota Imanaga · 2:20 PM ET

Scheduled 2:20 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean PIT or CHC?

The run projection leans CHC over PIT.

Projected runs: PIT 4.3, CHC 4.4. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs PIT 4.3 · CHC 4.4 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.7 · Market 8.5 priced gap unavailable

Run line PIT 1.5 · CHC -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 50.3% · YRFI 49.7% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 0 No real output for this game

Fangorn 0 No real output for this game

Valinor 0 No real output for this game

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

0 matched rows

No matched player rows

Player boards may still be publishing, or this game has no eligible current rows.

Kalshi exchange context

Chicago C win contract 58.5% Bid 58c · ask 59c

Pittsburgh win contract 42.5% Bid 42c · ask 43c

First inning run: Yes 47.0% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.