Section III · Betting · 2026-09-11

KC at BOS

Seth Lugo vs Sonny Gray · 7:10 PM ET

Scheduled 7:10 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean KC or BOS?

The run projection leans BOS over KC.

Projected runs: KC 4.2, BOS 4.6. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs KC 4.2 · BOS 4.6 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.8 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line KC 1.5 · BOS -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 48.5% · YRFI 51.5% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 0 No real output for this game

Fangorn 0 No real output for this game

Valinor 0 No real output for this game

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

0 matched rows

No matched player rows

Player boards may still be publishing, or this game has no eligible current rows.

Kalshi exchange context

Boston win contract 64.5% Bid 64c · ask 65c

Kansas City win contract 35.5% Bid 35c · ask 36c

First inning run: Yes 48.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.