Section III · Betting · 2026-09-11

TEX at AZ

Away starter pending vs home starter pending · 9:40 PM ET

Scheduled 9:40 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean TEX or AZ?

No Mithrandir side probability is published yet.

The market currently favors AZ at 53.5%. That is a market price, not a Mithrandir prediction.

Model pending Kalshi market context

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs TEX 4.5 · AZ 4.5 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.1 · Market 9.0 priced gap unavailable

Run line TEX -1.5 · AZ 1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.1% · YRFI 50.9% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 0 No real output for this game

Fangorn 0 No real output for this game

Valinor 0 No real output for this game

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

0 matched rows

No matched player rows

Player boards may still be publishing, or this game has no eligible current rows.

Kalshi exchange context

Arizona win contract 53.5% Bid 53c · ask 54c

Texas win contract 46.5% Bid 46c · ask 47c

First inning run: Yes 49.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.