Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-04-11 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Fangorn is available, but quiet today.

Fangorn covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Yordan Alvarez HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 2	--Fangorn	20.9%market	+5.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
02	Marcell Ozuna PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 2	--Fangorn	21.1%market	+5.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.067xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 355 avg 3 books
03	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 1	--Fangorn	20.0%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.110xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
04	Riley Greene DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINPablo López · slot 4	--Fangorn	18.0%market	+5.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
05	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 4	--Fangorn	17.2%market	+4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.110xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
06	Gary Sánchez MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 6	--Fangorn	16.7%market	+4.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
07	Joc Pederson TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs OAKJp Sears · slot 5	--Fangorn	15.9%market	+4.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.032xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
08	Matt Wallner MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 2	--Fangorn	21.4%market	+3.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
09	Jj Bleday CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 6	--Fangorn	14.1%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
10	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 5	--Fangorn	13.5%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.110xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
11	Josh Bell MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 4	--Fangorn	15.3%market	+3.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
12	Corey Seager TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs OAKJp Sears · slot 2	--Fangorn	22.1%market	+3.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.032xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 335 avg 3 books
13	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 8	--Fangorn	13.0%market	+2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.110xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
14	Carlos Correa HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 6	--Fangorn	11.9%market	+2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
15	Christian Yelich MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 2	--Fangorn	16.9%market	+2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
16	Salvador Perez KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 4	--Fangorn	17.8%market	+1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
17	Bobby Witt Jr. KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 1	--Fangorn	17.5%market	+1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
18	Yainer Diaz HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 7	--Fangorn	14.3%market	+1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
19	Elly De La Cruz CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 1	--Fangorn	15.2%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
20	Will Benson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 7	--Fangorn	15.1%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
21	Bryan Reynolds PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 5	--Fangorn	13.5%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.067xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
22	Tj Friedl CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 2	--Fangorn	13.2%market	+0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
23	Jake Bauers MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 7	--Fangorn	14.5%market	+0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 565 avg 3 books
24	Wyatt Langford TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs OAKJp Sears · slot 1	--Fangorn	15.2%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.032xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
25	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 7	--Fangorn	16.3%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.110xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 490 avg 3 books
26	Eugenio Suárez CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 3	--Fangorn	21.4%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
27	Andrew Vaughn MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 5	--Fangorn	13.6%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
28	Danny Jansen TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs OAKJp Sears · slot 8	--Fangorn	14.7%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.032xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
29	Josh Jung TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs OAKJp Sears · slot 7	--Fangorn	13.6%market	+0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.032xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
30	Brice Turang MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 1	--Fangorn	10.4%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
31	Jackson Chourio MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 4	--Fangorn	15.6%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
32	Spencer Steer CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 4	--Fangorn	14.6%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
33	Tyler Stephenson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs MILFreddy Peralta · slot 5	--Fangorn	14.5%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
34	William Contreras MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CINNick Martinez · slot 3	--Fangorn	13.1%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.128xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 635 avg 3 books
35	Lane Thomas KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 5	--Fangorn	14.6%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
36	Brandon Nimmo TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs OAKJp Sears · slot 3	--Fangorn	16.1%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.032xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 500 avg 3 books
37	Jake Burger TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs OAKJp Sears · slot 4	--Fangorn	20.8%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.032xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 365 avg 3 books
38	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 3	--Fangorn	17.6%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.110xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
39	Evan Carter TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs OAKJp Sears · slot 6	--Fangorn	12.9%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.032xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 675 avg 3 books
40	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 6	--Fangorn	14.6%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.110xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
41	Joey Bart PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 7	--Fangorn	10.4%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.067xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
42	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 2	--Fangorn	21.2%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.110xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
43	Isaac Collins KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 2	--Fangorn	10.1%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
44	Colt Keith DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINPablo López · slot 6	--Fangorn	11.2%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 755 avg 3 books
45	Vinnie Pasquantino KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 3	--Fangorn	17.6%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
46	Zach McKinstry DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINPablo López · slot 1	--Fangorn	10.0%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
47	Oneil Cruz PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 9	--Fangorn	13.3%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.067xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
48	Ryan O'Hearn PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 3	--Fangorn	14.0%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.067xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
49	Spencer Horwitz PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 6	--Fangorn	13.3%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.067xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
50	Kerry Carpenter DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINPablo López · slot 3	--Fangorn	22.0%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
51	Starling Marte KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 7	--Fangorn	9.6%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 905 avg 3 books
52	Jonathan India KC Lineup pending	KC vs HOUHunter Brown · slot 6	--Fangorn	10.2%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 845 avg 3 books
53	Luke Keaschall MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 1	--Fangorn	12.2%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 690 avg 3 books
54	Brandon Lowe PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 4	--Fangorn	21.5%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.067xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
55	Dillon Dingler DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINPablo López · slot 7	--Fangorn	11.9%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 740 avg 3 books
56	Ryan Jeffers MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 6	--Fangorn	14.1%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
57	Jeremy Peña HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 1	--Fangorn	12.2%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
58	Jose Altuve HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 3	--Fangorn	16.5%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
59	Royce Lewis MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 5	--Fangorn	18.4%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
60	Christian Walker HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 4	--Fangorn	19.1%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
61	Jake Mangum PIT Lineup pending	PIT vs PHIRanger Suarez · slot 1	--Fangorn	8.0%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.067xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
62	Jahmai Jones DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINPablo López · slot 2	--Fangorn	17.4%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
63	Byron Buxton MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 3	--Fangorn	23.3%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
64	Trevor Larnach MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 7	--Fangorn	13.8%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
65	Spencer Torkelson DET Lineup pending	DET vs MINPablo López · slot 5	--Fangorn	18.0%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
66	Isaac Paredes HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs KCBrady Singer · slot 5	--Fangorn	17.2%market	-3.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.988xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Marcell OzunaPIT vs PHI · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Yordan AlvarezHOU vs KC · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL vs NYM · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Matt WallnerMIN vs DET · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Corey SeagerTEX vs OAK · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.