Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2024-05-06 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
67
Matched
201
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2024-05-06 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Matt Wallner MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2
 --Valinor 21.4%market +6.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
02
Marcell Ozuna PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 2
 --Valinor 21.1%market +5.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 355 avg 3 books
03
Rafael Devers SF
Lineup pending
SF vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 --Valinor 20.0%market +5.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
04
José Ramírez CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 1
 --Valinor 19.4%market +5.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 395 avg 3 books
05
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4
 --Valinor 15.3%market +4.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
06
Alec Burleson STL
Lineup pending
STL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 3
 --Valinor 14.1%market +3.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.967xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
07
Lars Nootbaar STL
Lineup pending
STL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 5
 --Valinor 11.6%market +2.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.967xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 735 avg 3 books
08
Gary Sánchez MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs KCCole Ragans · slot 6
 --Valinor 16.7%market +2.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
09
Bryan Reynolds PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 5
 --Valinor 13.5%market +0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
10
Heliot Ramos SF
Lineup pending
SF vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5
 --Valinor 14.4%market +0.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
11
Jordan Walker STL
Lineup pending
STL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 7
 --Valinor 10.6%market +0.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.967xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 815 avg 3 books
12
Tyler Fitzgerald SF
Lineup pending
SF vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 6
 --Valinor 13.1%market +0.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
13
Matt Chapman SF
Lineup pending
SF vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3
 --Valinor 16.4%market -0.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
14
Jung Hoo Lee SF
Lineup pending
SF vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 7
 --Valinor 7.7%market -0.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
15
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SDYu Darvish · slot 9
 --Valinor 14.8%market -0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
16
Michael Busch CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SDYu Darvish · slot 3
 --Valinor 19.9%market -0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
17
Yoán Moncada LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PITMitch Keller · slot 6
 --Valinor 14.5%market -0.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
18
Willy Adames SF
Lineup pending
SF vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 --Valinor 17.9%market -0.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
19
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SDYu Darvish · slot 4
 --Valinor 15.1%market -0.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
20
Shea Langeliers ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 3
 --Valinor 22.4%market -0.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
21
Dansby Swanson CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SDYu Darvish · slot 6
 --Valinor 13.9%market -0.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 595 avg 3 books
22
Austin Wynns ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 7
 --Valinor 12.3%market -0.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 715 avg 3 books
23
Brent Rooker ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 2
 --Valinor 22.2%market -0.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
24
Jacob Wilson ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 6
 --Valinor 9.9%market -0.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
25
Trevor Larnach MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 7
 --Valinor 13.8%market -1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
26
Joey Bart PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 7
 --Valinor 10.4%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
27
Ramón Urías STL
Lineup pending
STL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 6
 --Valinor 11.4%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.967xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 740 avg 3 books
28
Carson Kelly CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SDYu Darvish · slot 7
 --Valinor 13.2%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
29
Iván Herrera STL
Lineup pending
STL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
 --Valinor 14.8%market -1.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.967xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
30
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 --Valinor 7.7%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.077xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
31
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 5
 --Valinor 15.7%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
32
Zack Gelof ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 9
 --Valinor 13.9%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
33
Alex Bregman CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SDYu Darvish · slot 5
 --Valinor 15.5%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
34
Zach Neto LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PITMitch Keller · slot 1
 --Valinor 18.1%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
35
Lawrence Butler ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 4
 --Valinor 16.5%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
36
Nolan Schanuel LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PITMitch Keller · slot 7
 --Valinor 9.2%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 940 avg 3 books
37
Angel Martínez CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 7
 --Valinor 9.5%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
38
Daniel Schneemann CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 6
 --Valinor 12.0%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
39
Nick Kurtz ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 1
 --Valinor 28.2%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 255 avg 3 books
40
Victor Scott II STL
Lineup pending
STL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 1
 --Valinor 7.7%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.967xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
41
Luke Keaschall MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1
 --Valinor 12.2%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 690 avg 3 books
42
Nico Hoerner CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SDYu Darvish · slot 1
 --Valinor 7.7%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43
Seiya Suzuki CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs SDYu Darvish · slot 2
 --Valinor 18.7%market -1.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.008xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
44
Ryan Jeffers MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6
 --Valinor 14.1%market -1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
45
Oneil Cruz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 9
 --Valinor 13.8%market -1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
46
Kyle Manzardo CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 3
 --Valinor 19.8%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
47
Spencer Horwitz PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 6
 --Valinor 13.3%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
48
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 3
 --Valinor 14.0%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
49
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 4
 --Valinor 15.8%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
50
Royce Lewis MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5
 --Valinor 18.4%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
51
Steven Kwan CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 2
 --Valinor 9.2%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
52
Nolan Gorman STL
Lineup pending
STL vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
 --Valinor 19.8%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.967xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 405 avg 3 books
53
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3
 --Valinor 23.3%market -2.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.984xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
54
Brandon Lowe PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 4
 --Valinor 21.5%market -2.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
55
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 1
 --Valinor 8.0%market -2.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
56
Travis D'Arnaud LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PITMitch Keller · slot 8
 --Valinor 14.6%market -2.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
57
Andrew Vaughn MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs KCCole Ragans · slot 5
 --Valinor 14.3%market -2.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
58
David Fry CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 5
 --Valinor 17.0%market -2.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.930xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
59
Logan O'Hoppe LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PITMitch Keller · slot 5
 --Valinor 18.5%market -2.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
60
William Contreras MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs KCCole Ragans · slot 3
 --Valinor 13.6%market -2.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
61
Mike Trout LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PITMitch Keller · slot 2
 --Valinor 21.3%market -3.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 370 avg 3 books
62
Jorge Soler LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PITMitch Keller · slot 3
 --Valinor 19.2%market -3.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
63
Brice Turang MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs KCCole Ragans · slot 1
 --Valinor 10.8%market -3.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 825 avg 3 books
64
Jo Adell LAA
Lineup pending
LAA vs PITMitch Keller · slot 4
 --Valinor 22.7%market -3.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.952xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
65
Jackson Chourio MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs KCCole Ragans · slot 4
 --Valinor 16.1%market -3.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
66
Christian Yelich MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs KCCole Ragans · slot 2
 --Valinor 17.7%market -3.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
67
Jake Bauers MIL
Lineup pending
MIL vs KCCole Ragans · slot 7
 --Valinor 15.2%market -4.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 1.016xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 560 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.