Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-05-09 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Yordan Alvarez HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 2	--Valinor	20.9%market	+5.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
02	Eugenio Suárez CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs AZSlade Cecconi · slot 3	--Valinor	21.4%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
03	Rafael Devers SF Lineup pending	SF vs COLCal Quantrill · slot 2	--Valinor	20.0%market	+5.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.053xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
04	Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 5	--Valinor	18.8%market	+5.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
05	Corbin Carroll AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs CINHunter Greene · slot 1	--Valinor	17.6%market	+4.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 445 avg 3 books
06	Matt Wallner MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2	--Valinor	21.4%market	+4.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
07	Elly De La Cruz CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs AZSlade Cecconi · slot 1	--Valinor	15.2%market	+4.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
08	Will Benson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs AZSlade Cecconi · slot 7	--Valinor	15.1%market	+4.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
09	Jj Bleday CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs AZSlade Cecconi · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
10	Giancarlo Stanton NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 4	--Valinor	24.3%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 295 avg 3 books
11	Spencer Steer CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs AZSlade Cecconi · slot 4	--Valinor	14.5%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 565 avg 3 books
12	Tyler Stephenson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs AZSlade Cecconi · slot 5	--Valinor	14.4%market	+3.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
13	Tj Friedl CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs AZSlade Cecconi · slot 2	--Valinor	13.2%market	+3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
14	Aaron Judge NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 2	--Valinor	29.6%market	+3.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 225 avg 3 books
15	Carlos Correa HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 6	--Valinor	11.9%market	+2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
16	Josh Bell MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4	--Valinor	15.3%market	+2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
17	Gary Sánchez MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs STLSonny Gray · slot 6	--Valinor	16.7%market	+2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.936xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
18	Yainer Diaz HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 7	--Valinor	14.3%market	+1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
19	Ben Rice NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 6	--Valinor	17.3%market	+1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
20	Trent Grisham NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 7	--Valinor	17.0%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
21	Pavin Smith AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs CINHunter Greene · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	+1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
22	Lourdes Gurriel Jr. AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs CINHunter Greene · slot 4	--Valinor	15.0%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
23	Adrian Del Castillo AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs CINHunter Greene · slot 7	--Valinor	13.8%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 595 avg 3 books
24	Carlos Santana AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs CINHunter Greene · slot 5	--Valinor	14.2%market	+0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
25	Cody Bellinger NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 3	--Valinor	17.0%market	+0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
26	Colson Montgomery CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CLEBen Lively · slot 3	--Valinor	24.1%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.997xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 300 avg 3 books
27	Geraldo Perdomo AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs CINHunter Greene · slot 3	--Valinor	9.7%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
28	Ketel Marte AZ Lineup pending	AZ vs CINHunter Greene · slot 2	--Valinor	20.7%market	+0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.156xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 365 avg 3 books
29	Kyle Teel CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CLEBen Lively · slot 2	--Valinor	13.6%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.997xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
30	José Caballero NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 1	--Valinor	9.1%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 960 avg 3 books
31	Jung Hoo Lee SF Lineup pending	SF vs COLCal Quantrill · slot 7	--Valinor	7.7%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.053xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
32	Andrew Benintendi CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CLEBen Lively · slot 4	--Valinor	13.8%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.997xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
33	Tyler Fitzgerald SF Lineup pending	SF vs COLCal Quantrill · slot 6	--Valinor	13.1%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.053xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
34	Edgar Quero CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CLEBen Lively · slot 6	--Valinor	7.8%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.997xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1125 avg 3 books
35	Heliot Ramos SF Lineup pending	SF vs COLCal Quantrill · slot 5	--Valinor	14.5%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.053xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
36	Yoán Moncada LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 6	--Valinor	14.5%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
37	Matt Chapman SF Lineup pending	SF vs COLCal Quantrill · slot 3	--Valinor	16.4%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.053xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
38	Willy Adames SF Lineup pending	SF vs COLCal Quantrill · slot 4	--Valinor	17.9%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.053xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
39	Lenyn Sosa CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CLEBen Lively · slot 7	--Valinor	14.0%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.997xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
40	Austin Hays CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CLEBen Lively · slot 5	--Valinor	12.8%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.997xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 650 avg 3 books
41	Chase Meidroth CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs CLEBen Lively · slot 1	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.997xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
42	Luis Arraez SF Lineup pending	SF vs COLCal Quantrill · slot 1	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.053xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43	Christian Yelich MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs STLSonny Gray · slot 2	--Valinor	17.3%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.936xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
44	Zach Neto LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1	--Valinor	18.5%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
45	Nolan Schanuel LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 7	--Valinor	9.2%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 940 avg 3 books
46	Jeremy Peña HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 1	--Valinor	12.2%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
47	Jose Altuve HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 3	--Valinor	16.5%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
48	Brendan Donovan SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs MINPablo López · slot 6	--Valinor	10.3%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 835 avg 3 books
49	Christian Walker HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 4	--Valinor	19.1%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
50	Brice Turang MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs STLSonny Gray · slot 1	--Valinor	10.8%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.936xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 825 avg 3 books
51	Trevor Larnach MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 7	--Valinor	13.8%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
52	Jake Bauers MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs STLSonny Gray · slot 7	--Valinor	15.2%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.936xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
53	Andrew Vaughn MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs STLSonny Gray · slot 5	--Valinor	14.3%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.936xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
54	Dominic Canzone SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs MINPablo López · slot 7	--Valinor	16.1%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
55	Luke Raley SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs MINPablo López · slot 8	--Valinor	15.6%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
56	Josh Naylor SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs MINPablo López · slot 4	--Valinor	17.2%market	-2.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
57	William Contreras MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs STLSonny Gray · slot 3	--Valinor	13.6%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.936xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 635 avg 3 books
58	Isaac Paredes HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs NYYMarcus Stroman · slot 5	--Valinor	17.2%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.034xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
59	Luke Keaschall MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1	--Valinor	12.7%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
60	Ryan Jeffers MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
61	Randy Arozarena SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs MINPablo López · slot 5	--Valinor	15.2%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
62	Rob Refsnyder SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs MINPablo López · slot 2	--Valinor	15.3%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 555 avg 3 books
63	Jackson Chourio MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs STLSonny Gray · slot 4	--Valinor	16.1%market	-3.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.936xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
64	Travis D'Arnaud LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 8	--Valinor	14.6%market	-3.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
65	Cal Raleigh SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs MINPablo López · slot 3	--Valinor	27.0%market	-3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
66	Logan O'Hoppe LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5	--Valinor	18.5%market	-3.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 440 avg 3 books
67	Royce Lewis MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5	--Valinor	18.4%market	-3.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
68	Mike Trout LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2	--Valinor	21.3%market	-3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 370 avg 3 books
69	Jorge Soler LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3	--Valinor	19.2%market	-3.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
70	Julio Rodríguez SEA Lineup pending	SEA vs MINPablo López · slot 1	--Valinor	18.9%market	-3.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
71	Byron Buxton MIN Lineup pending	MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3	--Valinor	23.3%market	-3.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.918xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
72	Jo Adell LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 4	--Valinor	22.7%market	-3.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.951xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 340 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Eugenio SuárezCIN vs AZ · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Yordan AlvarezHOU vs NYY · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Rafael DeversSF vs COL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Aaron JudgeNYY vs HOU · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Giancarlo StantonNYY vs HOU · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.