Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2024-05-16 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
52
Matched
156
Lineups
0
HR BOARD 2024-05-16 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Juan Soto NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PHITaijuan Walker · slot 1
 --Valinor 23.2%market +6.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 315 avg 3 books
02
Matt Wallner MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 2
 --Valinor 21.4%market +6.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 350 avg 3 books
03
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 5
 --Valinor 18.8%market +5.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
04
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 4
 --Valinor 15.3%market +4.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
05
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PHITaijuan Walker · slot 4
 --Valinor 17.3%market +4.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
06
Jj Bleday CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 6
 --Valinor 14.1%market +3.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.948xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
07
Jarren Duran BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TBZack Littell · slot 1
 --Valinor 12.0%market +2.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 705 avg 3 books
08
Giancarlo Stanton NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4
 --Valinor 24.3%market +2.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 295 avg 3 books
09
Luis Robert Jr. NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PHITaijuan Walker · slot 9
 --Valinor 15.3%market +1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
10
Bryce Harper PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 2
 --Valinor 18.9%market +1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
11
Aaron Judge NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 2
 --Valinor 29.6%market +1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 225 avg 3 books
12
Masataka Yoshida BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TBZack Littell · slot 7
 --Valinor 9.9%market +0.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
13
Alec Bohm PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 5
 --Valinor 11.3%market +0.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 755 avg 3 books
14
Brett Baty NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PHITaijuan Walker · slot 8
 --Valinor 13.5%market -0.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 615 avg 3 books
15
Roman Anthony BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TBZack Littell · slot 2
 --Valinor 14.0%market -0.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
16
Wilyer Abreu BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TBZack Littell · slot 4
 --Valinor 17.9%market -0.8pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
17
Triston Casas BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TBZack Littell · slot 5
 --Valinor 17.7%market -0.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
18
Ben Rice NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 6
 --Valinor 17.7%market -1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
19
Mark Vientos NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PHITaijuan Walker · slot 6
 --Valinor 17.7%market -1.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
20
Trent Grisham NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 7
 --Valinor 17.3%market -1.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
21
Bo Bichette NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PHITaijuan Walker · slot 3
 --Valinor 12.5%market -1.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
22
Trea Turner PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 1
 --Valinor 15.0%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
23
Trevor Larnach MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 7
 --Valinor 13.8%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
24
Edmundo Sosa PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 7
 --Valinor 13.5%market -1.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 615 avg 3 books
25
Marcus Semien NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PHITaijuan Walker · slot 5
 --Valinor 13.9%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 595 avg 3 books
26
Francisco Alvarez NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PHITaijuan Walker · slot 7
 --Valinor 16.7%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 480 avg 3 books
27
Romy Gonzalez BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TBZack Littell · slot 6
 --Valinor 12.4%market -1.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
28
Cody Bellinger NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 3
 --Valinor 17.4%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
29
Francisco Lindor NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PHITaijuan Walker · slot 2
 --Valinor 19.1%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
30
José Caballero NYY
Lineup pending
NYY vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 1
 --Valinor 9.1%market -1.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 960 avg 3 books
31
Adolis García PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 4
 --Valinor 18.4%market -1.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
32
Brandon Marsh PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 6
 --Valinor 12.2%market -1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 690 avg 3 books
33
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 2
 --Valinor 13.8%market -1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.948xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
34
Elly De La Cruz CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 1
 --Valinor 15.9%market -1.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.948xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
35
Kyle Schwarber PHI
Lineup pending
PHI vs NYMJose Quintana · slot 3
 --Valinor 27.0%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.993xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
36
Luke Keaschall MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 1
 --Valinor 12.7%market -2.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
37
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 5
 --Valinor 16.3%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.922xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
38
Lawrence Butler ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 4
 --Valinor 17.0%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.922xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
39
Will Benson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 7
 --Valinor 15.9%market -2.1pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.948xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
40
Ryan Jeffers MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 6
 --Valinor 14.1%market -2.2pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
41
Jacob Wilson ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 6
 --Valinor 10.3%market -2.3pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.922xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 875 avg 3 books
42
Royce Lewis MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 5
 --Valinor 18.4%market -2.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
43
Austin Wynns ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 7
 --Valinor 12.3%market -2.5pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.922xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 715 avg 3 books
44
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs NYYClarke Schmidt · slot 3
 --Valinor 23.3%market -2.6pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.980xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
45
Spencer Steer CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 4
 --Valinor 15.2%market -2.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.948xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 560 avg 3 books
46
Tyler Stephenson CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 5
 --Valinor 15.0%market -2.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.948xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
47
Nick Kurtz ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 1
 --Valinor 28.2%market -2.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.922xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 255 avg 3 books
48
Willson Contreras BOS
Lineup pending
BOS vs TBZack Littell · slot 3
 --Valinor 17.2%market -3.0pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.970xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
49
Zack Gelof ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 9
 --Valinor 13.9%market -3.4pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.922xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
50
Eugenio Suárez CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs LADTyler Glasnow · slot 3
 --Valinor 22.7%market -3.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.948xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
51
Shea Langeliers ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 3
 --Valinor 23.0%market -3.7pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.922xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
52
Brent Rooker ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 2
 --Valinor 22.7%market -3.9pp
P --
F --
V --
--pp 0.922xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 340 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status0roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.