Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-05-23 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 5	--Valinor	18.8%market	+5.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
02	Riley Greene DET Lineup pending	DET vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 4	--Valinor	18.0%market	+5.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
03	Corey Seager TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2	--Valinor	22.1%market	+4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 335 avg 3 books
04	Giancarlo Stanton NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 4	--Valinor	24.3%market	+4.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 295 avg 3 books
05	Joc Pederson TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5	--Valinor	15.9%market	+4.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
06	Aaron Judge NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 2	--Valinor	29.6%market	+3.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 225 avg 3 books
07	Bryce Harper PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 2	--Valinor	18.9%market	+3.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
08	Jesús Sánchez TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
09	Anthony Santander TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 3	--Valinor	20.1%market	+3.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
10	Alec Bohm PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 5	--Valinor	11.3%market	+2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 755 avg 3 books
11	Brandon Nimmo TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3	--Valinor	15.8%market	+1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 510 avg 3 books
12	Kyle Schwarber PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 3	--Valinor	25.7%market	+1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 275 avg 3 books
13	Ben Rice NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 6	--Valinor	17.3%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
14	Adolis García PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 4	--Valinor	18.0%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
15	Evan Carter TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 6	--Valinor	12.3%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 680 avg 3 books
16	Trent Grisham NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 7	--Valinor	17.0%market	+0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
17	Cody Bellinger NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 3	--Valinor	17.0%market	+0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 465 avg 3 books
18	Trea Turner PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 1	--Valinor	14.7%market	+0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 555 avg 3 books
19	Wyatt Langford TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1	--Valinor	15.2%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
20	Edmundo Sosa PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 7	--Valinor	13.4%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
21	Josh Jung TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 7	--Valinor	13.6%market	-0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
22	Danny Jansen TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 8	--Valinor	14.8%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
23	Brandon Marsh PHI Lineup pending	PHI vs TEXAndrew Heaney · slot 6	--Valinor	12.2%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 690 avg 3 books
24	Daulton Varsho TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 4	--Valinor	18.6%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
25	Jake Burger TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4	--Valinor	20.8%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.085xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 365 avg 3 books
26	José Caballero NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs SEALuis Castillo · slot 1	--Valinor	9.1%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.109xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 960 avg 3 books
27	Nathan Lukes TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 6	--Valinor	10.4%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
28	Tyler Soderstrom ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5	--Valinor	15.7%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
29	Lawrence Butler ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4	--Valinor	16.5%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
30	Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 9	--Valinor	14.8%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
31	Colt Keith DET Lineup pending	DET vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 6	--Valinor	11.2%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 755 avg 3 books
32	Nick Kurtz ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1	--Valinor	28.2%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 255 avg 3 books
33	Ian Happ CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 4	--Valinor	15.1%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
34	Dansby Swanson CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 6	--Valinor	13.9%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 595 avg 3 books
35	Zach McKinstry DET Lineup pending	DET vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 1	--Valinor	10.0%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
36	Michael Busch CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 3	--Valinor	20.4%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
37	Jacob Wilson ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 6	--Valinor	9.9%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 870 avg 3 books
38	Austin Wynns ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 7	--Valinor	12.3%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 715 avg 3 books
39	Davis Schneider TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 7	--Valinor	16.0%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
40	Carson Kelly CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 7	--Valinor	13.7%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
41	Kerry Carpenter DET Lineup pending	DET vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3	--Valinor	22.0%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
42	Dillon Dingler DET Lineup pending	DET vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 7	--Valinor	11.9%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 740 avg 3 books
43	Nico Hoerner CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
44	George Springer TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 1	--Valinor	18.9%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
45	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 2	--Valinor	17.7%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
46	Alex Bregman CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 5	--Valinor	16.0%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
47	Shea Langeliers ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3	--Valinor	23.0%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
48	Jahmai Jones DET Lineup pending	DET vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 2	--Valinor	17.4%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
49	Zack Gelof ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 9	--Valinor	13.9%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
50	Brent Rooker ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2	--Valinor	22.7%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
51	Spencer Torkelson DET Lineup pending	DET vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 5	--Valinor	18.0%market	-3.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.966xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
52	Seiya Suzuki CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 2	--Valinor	18.7%market	-3.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.954xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 435 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Giancarlo StantonNYY vs SEA · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Aaron JudgeNYY vs SEA · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Corey SeagerTEX vs PHI · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY vs SEA · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Riley GreeneDET vs TOR · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.