Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-05-30 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Juan Soto NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZZac Gallen · slot 1	--Valinor	23.2%market	+6.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.960xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 315 avg 3 books
02	Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 1	--Valinor	20.0%market	+5.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.972xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
03	Riley Greene DET Lineup pending	DET vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 4	--Valinor	18.0%market	+5.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
04	Yordan Alvarez HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2	--Valinor	20.9%market	+4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.933xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
05	Austin Riley ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 4	--Valinor	17.2%market	+4.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.972xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
06	Gary Sánchez MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 6	--Valinor	16.7%market	+4.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
07	Ozzie Albies ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 5	--Valinor	13.5%market	+3.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.972xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 610 avg 3 books
08	Jarren Duran BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 1	--Valinor	12.0%market	+2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 705 avg 3 books
09	Jorge Polanco NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZZac Gallen · slot 4	--Valinor	17.3%market	+2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.960xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
10	Michael Harris II ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 8	--Valinor	13.0%market	+2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.972xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
11	Carlos Correa HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6	--Valinor	11.9%market	+1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.933xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
12	Masataka Yoshida BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 7	--Valinor	9.9%market	+1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
13	Zach Neto LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1	--Valinor	17.6%market	+0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 445 avg 3 books
14	Christian Yelich MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 2	--Valinor	16.9%market	+0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
15	Yoán Moncada LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 6	--Valinor	14.4%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
16	Michael Busch CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 3	--Valinor	19.2%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 400 avg 3 books
17	Yainer Diaz HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 7	--Valinor	14.3%market	+0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.933xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
18	Luis Robert Jr. NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZZac Gallen · slot 9	--Valinor	15.3%market	+0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.960xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
19	Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 9	--Valinor	14.8%market	-0.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
20	Kerry Carpenter DET Lineup pending	DET vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 3	--Valinor	21.5%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
21	Ian Happ CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 4	--Valinor	15.1%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
22	Jake Bauers MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 7	--Valinor	14.6%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
23	Colt Keith DET Lineup pending	DET vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 6	--Valinor	11.2%market	-0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 755 avg 3 books
24	Dansby Swanson CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 6	--Valinor	13.9%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 595 avg 3 books
25	Andrew Vaughn MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 5	--Valinor	13.8%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
26	Wilyer Abreu BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 4	--Valinor	17.9%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
27	Roman Anthony BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 2	--Valinor	14.0%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
28	Zach McKinstry DET Lineup pending	DET vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 1	--Valinor	10.0%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
29	Brice Turang MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 1	--Valinor	10.4%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
30	Triston Casas BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 5	--Valinor	17.7%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
31	William Contreras MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 3	--Valinor	13.1%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 635 avg 3 books
32	Carson Kelly CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 7	--Valinor	13.2%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
33	Jahmai Jones DET Lineup pending	DET vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 2	--Valinor	16.8%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
34	Mike Yastrzemski ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 6	--Valinor	14.6%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.972xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
35	Dillon Dingler DET Lineup pending	DET vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 7	--Valinor	11.9%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 740 avg 3 books
36	Drake Baldwin ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 3	--Valinor	17.6%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.972xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
37	Mike Trout LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2	--Valinor	20.8%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 365 avg 3 books
38	Jackson Chourio MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs CHCJameson Taillon · slot 4	--Valinor	15.6%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
39	Logan O'Hoppe LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 5	--Valinor	18.1%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
40	Alex Bregman CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 5	--Valinor	15.5%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 525 avg 3 books
41	Travis D'Arnaud LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 8	--Valinor	14.1%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
42	Jorge Soler LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 3	--Valinor	18.6%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
43	Spencer Torkelson DET Lineup pending	DET vs BOSNick Pivetta · slot 5	--Valinor	17.4%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
44	Jo Adell LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 4	--Valinor	22.2%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
45	Romy Gonzalez BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 6	--Valinor	12.4%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
46	Seiya Suzuki CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 2	--Valinor	18.1%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
47	Nolan Schanuel LAA Lineup pending	LAA vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 7	--Valinor	9.2%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.969xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 940 avg 3 books
48	Nico Hoerner CHC Lineup pending	CHC vs MILColin Rea · slot 1	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.006xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
49	Matt Olson ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 2	--Valinor	21.7%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.972xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
50	Brett Baty NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZZac Gallen · slot 8	--Valinor	13.5%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.960xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 615 avg 3 books
51	Sean Murphy ATL Lineup pending	ATL vs WSHTrevor Williams · slot 7	--Valinor	17.1%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.972xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
52	Bo Bichette NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZZac Gallen · slot 3	--Valinor	13.0%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.960xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
53	Mark Vientos NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZZac Gallen · slot 6	--Valinor	18.2%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.960xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
54	Marcus Semien NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZZac Gallen · slot 5	--Valinor	14.4%market	-2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.960xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
55	Jeremy Peña HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1	--Valinor	12.2%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.933xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
56	Francisco Alvarez NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZZac Gallen · slot 7	--Valinor	17.2%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.960xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
57	Francisco Lindor NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs AZZac Gallen · slot 2	--Valinor	19.6%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.960xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
58	Willson Contreras BOS Lineup pending	BOS vs DETJack Flaherty · slot 3	--Valinor	17.2%market	-2.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.019xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
59	Jose Altuve HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3	--Valinor	16.5%market	-3.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.933xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 505 avg 3 books
60	Christian Walker HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4	--Valinor	19.1%market	-3.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.933xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
61	Isaac Paredes HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5	--Valinor	17.2%market	-3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.933xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Juan SotoNYM vs AZ · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Ronald Acuña Jr.ATL vs WSH · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Yordan AlvarezHOU vs SEA · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Riley GreeneDET vs BOS · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Austin RileyATL vs WSH · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.