Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-06-03 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Valinor is available, but quiet today.

Valinor covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Juan Soto NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 1	--Valinor	23.2%market	+6.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 315 avg 3 books
02	Riley Greene DET Lineup pending	DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 4	--Valinor	18.0%market	+5.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 435 avg 3 books
03	Fernando Tatis Jr. SD Lineup pending	SD vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 1	--Valinor	17.2%market	+4.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
04	Tyler O'Neill BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3	--Valinor	20.0%market	+4.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.976xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
05	Gary Sánchez MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 6	--Valinor	16.7%market	+4.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
06	Rafael Devers SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2	--Valinor	20.0%market	+4.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
07	Joc Pederson TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 5	--Valinor	15.9%market	+3.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
08	Jj Bleday CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 6	--Valinor	14.1%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
09	Alec Burleson STL Lineup pending	STL vs HOUJustin Verlander · slot 3	--Valinor	14.1%market	+3.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 580 avg 3 books
10	Lars Nootbaar STL Lineup pending	STL vs HOUJustin Verlander · slot 5	--Valinor	11.6%market	+2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 735 avg 3 books
11	Ramón Laureano SD Lineup pending	SD vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 5	--Valinor	16.0%market	+2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 500 avg 3 books
12	Hunter Goodman COL Lineup pending	COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2	--Valinor	20.4%market	+2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 370 avg 3 books
13	Jorge Polanco NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 4	--Valinor	17.3%market	+2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 455 avg 3 books
14	Christian Yelich MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2	--Valinor	16.9%market	+1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
15	Luis Robert Jr. NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 9	--Valinor	15.3%market	+1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 530 avg 3 books
16	Brenton Doyle COL Lineup pending	COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 5	--Valinor	13.3%market	+0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
17	Ezequiel Tovar COL Lineup pending	COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 4	--Valinor	13.3%market	+0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
18	Mickey Moniak COL Lineup pending	COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 3	--Valinor	18.1%market	+0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
19	Elly De La Cruz CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1	--Valinor	15.2%market	+0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
20	Jake Bauers MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 7	--Valinor	14.5%market	+0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 565 avg 3 books
21	Corey Seager TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 2	--Valinor	22.1%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 335 avg 3 books
22	Jordan Beck COL Lineup pending	COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 7	--Valinor	11.0%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
23	Willi Castro COL Lineup pending	COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1	--Valinor	10.9%market	+0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
24	Will Benson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 7	--Valinor	15.1%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 535 avg 3 books
25	Andrew Vaughn MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 5	--Valinor	13.6%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
26	Tj Friedl CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2	--Valinor	13.2%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 630 avg 3 books
27	Jackson Chourio MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4	--Valinor	15.6%market	-0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
28	Brice Turang MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1	--Valinor	10.4%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
29	Edouard Julien COL Lineup pending	COL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 6	--Valinor	12.2%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 685 avg 3 books
30	William Contreras MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 3	--Valinor	13.1%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.056xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 635 avg 3 books
31	Manny Machado SD Lineup pending	SD vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 2	--Valinor	19.1%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
32	Spencer Steer CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4	--Valinor	14.6%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
33	Jordan Walker STL Lineup pending	STL vs HOUJustin Verlander · slot 7	--Valinor	10.6%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 805 avg 3 books
34	Tyler Stephenson CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5	--Valinor	14.5%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
35	Eugenio Suárez CIN Lineup pending	CIN vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3	--Valinor	22.2%market	-0.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.142xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 335 avg 3 books
36	Colt Keith DET Lineup pending	DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 6	--Valinor	11.2%market	-0.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 755 avg 3 books
37	Miguel Andujar SD Lineup pending	SD vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 6	--Valinor	10.3%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 830 avg 3 books
38	Gunnar Henderson BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 1	--Valinor	17.9%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.976xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
39	Zach McKinstry DET Lineup pending	DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 1	--Valinor	10.0%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
40	Kerry Carpenter DET Lineup pending	DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 3	--Valinor	21.5%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
41	Keibert Ruiz WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 5	--Valinor	10.7%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
42	Nolan Gorman STL Lineup pending	STL vs HOUJustin Verlander · slot 4	--Valinor	19.3%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 400 avg 3 books
43	Daylen Lile WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 3	--Valinor	12.7%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
44	Jung Hoo Lee SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 7	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45	Luis García Jr. WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 4	--Valinor	13.7%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
46	James Wood WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 2	--Valinor	17.3%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
47	Wyatt Langford TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 1	--Valinor	15.3%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 530 avg 3 books
48	José Tena WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 6	--Valinor	7.8%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1130 avg 3 books
49	Cj Abrams WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 1	--Valinor	14.2%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 580 avg 3 books
50	Victor Scott II STL Lineup pending	STL vs HOUJustin Verlander · slot 1	--Valinor	7.7%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
51	Josh Jung TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 7	--Valinor	13.6%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
52	Nick Castellanos SD Lineup pending	SD vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 4	--Valinor	15.1%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
53	Danny Jansen TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 8	--Valinor	14.8%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 550 avg 3 books
54	Dillon Dingler DET Lineup pending	DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 7	--Valinor	11.9%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 740 avg 3 books
55	Tyler Fitzgerald SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 6	--Valinor	13.1%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
56	Colton Cowser BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 8	--Valinor	15.7%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.976xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
57	Heliot Ramos SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 5	--Valinor	15.0%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
58	Jahmai Jones DET Lineup pending	DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 2	--Valinor	17.4%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
59	Adley Rutschman BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 6	--Valinor	12.7%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.976xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
60	Jake Cronenworth SD Lineup pending	SD vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 7	--Valinor	10.1%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
61	Ramón Urías STL Lineup pending	STL vs HOUJustin Verlander · slot 6	--Valinor	11.4%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 740 avg 3 books
62	Dylan Crews WSH Lineup pending	WSH vs NYMTylor Megill · slot 7	--Valinor	12.4%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
63	Jackson Merrill SD Lineup pending	SD vs LAATyler Anderson · slot 3	--Valinor	16.8%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 495 avg 3 books
64	Jordan Westburg BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 5	--Valinor	16.7%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.976xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
65	Matt Chapman SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 3	--Valinor	17.0%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
66	Evan Carter TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 6	--Valinor	12.9%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 675 avg 3 books
67	Spencer Torkelson DET Lineup pending	DET vs TEXNathan Eovaldi · slot 5	--Valinor	18.0%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
68	Willy Adames SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 4	--Valinor	18.4%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
69	Luis Arraez SF Lineup pending	SF vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1	--Valinor	8.0%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.000xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
70	Iván Herrera STL Lineup pending	STL vs HOUJustin Verlander · slot 2	--Valinor	15.4%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.002xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 550 avg 3 books
71	Mark Vientos NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 6	--Valinor	18.2%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
72	Bo Bichette NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 3	--Valinor	13.0%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
73	Brandon Nimmo TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 3	--Valinor	16.7%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
74	Jake Burger TEX Lineup pending	TEX vs DETTarik Skubal · slot 4	--Valinor	21.3%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.038xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 370 avg 3 books
75	Marcus Semien NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 5	--Valinor	14.4%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 595 avg 3 books
76	Francisco Alvarez NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 7	--Valinor	17.2%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
77	Ryan Mountcastle BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 7	--Valinor	11.8%market	-2.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.976xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
78	Taylor Ward BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 4	--Valinor	18.9%market	-2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.976xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
79	Brett Baty NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 8	--Valinor	14.0%market	-3.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 615 avg 3 books
80	Francisco Lindor NYM Lineup pending	NYM vs WSHMacKenzie Gore · slot 2	--Valinor	19.6%market	-3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.013xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
81	Pete Alonso BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 2	--Valinor	23.8%market	-3.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.976xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 320 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Juan SotoNYM vs WSH · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Tyler O'NeillBAL vs TOR · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Rafael DeversSF vs AZ · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Riley GreeneDET vs TEX · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Fernando Tatis Jr.SD vs LAA · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.