Mithrandir Metrics

HR BOARD 2024-06-10 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable

Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable

Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research

Selective Lane

Fangorn is available, but quiet today.

Fangorn covers Home Run Market Gaps as a selective lane but didn't qualify any rows on today's slate. Try Palantir or check back tomorrow.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Lineups not posted

The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.

Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market

#	Player	Matchup	Sim	Implied	Gap	Three lanes · P/F/V	Spread	Park	Weather	Recent	Best line
01	Yordan Alvarez HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SFKyle Harrison · slot 2	--Fangorn	20.9%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 360 avg 3 books
02	Tyler O'Neill BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 3	--Fangorn	20.0%market	+5.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
03	Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 5	--Fangorn	18.8%market	+5.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 410 avg 3 books
04	Anthony Santander TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs MILColin Rea · slot 3	--Fangorn	20.1%market	+3.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 380 avg 3 books
05	Gary Sánchez MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 6	--Fangorn	16.7%market	+3.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
06	Salvador Perez KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 4	--Fangorn	17.8%market	+3.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
07	Bobby Witt Jr. KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1	--Fangorn	17.5%market	+3.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
08	Jesús Sánchez TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs MILColin Rea · slot 5	--Fangorn	13.5%market	+3.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
09	Carlos Correa HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SFKyle Harrison · slot 6	--Fangorn	11.9%market	+2.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
10	Yainer Diaz HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SFKyle Harrison · slot 7	--Fangorn	14.3%market	+2.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
11	Gunnar Henderson BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 1	--Fangorn	17.5%market	+1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 450 avg 3 books
12	Lane Thomas KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 5	--Fangorn	14.4%market	+1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
13	Giancarlo Stanton NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 4	--Fangorn	24.3%market	+1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 295 avg 3 books
14	Colton Cowser BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 8	--Fangorn	15.4%market	+0.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 525 avg 3 books
15	Daulton Varsho TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs MILColin Rea · slot 4	--Fangorn	18.1%market	+0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 430 avg 3 books
16	Jordan Westburg BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 5	--Fangorn	15.9%market	+0.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 505 avg 3 books
17	Adley Rutschman BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 6	--Fangorn	12.7%market	-0.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 690 avg 3 books
18	Jonathan Aranda TB Lineup pending	TB vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 3	--Fangorn	14.5%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
19	Cedric Mullins TB Lineup pending	TB vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 5	--Fangorn	15.1%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
20	Jake Fraley TB Lineup pending	TB vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 6	--Fangorn	12.7%market	-0.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 660 avg 3 books
21	Christian Yelich MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 2	--Fangorn	17.3%market	-0.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
22	Aaron Judge NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2	--Fangorn	30.6%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 215 avg 3 books
23	Taylor Ward BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 4	--Fangorn	18.4%market	-0.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 425 avg 3 books
24	Nathan Lukes TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs MILColin Rea · slot 6	--Fangorn	10.4%market	-1.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
25	Pete Alonso BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 2	--Fangorn	23.3%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 315 avg 3 books
26	Jonathan India KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 6	--Fangorn	10.2%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 845 avg 3 books
27	Isaac Collins KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2	--Fangorn	10.1%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 850 avg 3 books
28	Starling Marte KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 7	--Fangorn	9.6%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 905 avg 3 books
29	Jose Altuve HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SFKyle Harrison · slot 3	--Fangorn	16.0%market	-1.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
30	Gavin Lux TB Lineup pending	TB vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 7	--Fangorn	7.7%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
31	Christian Walker HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SFKyle Harrison · slot 4	--Fangorn	18.6%market	-1.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
32	Jake Bauers MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 7	--Fangorn	14.6%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 560 avg 3 books
33	Jeremy Peña HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SFKyle Harrison · slot 1	--Fangorn	12.2%market	-1.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 720 avg 3 books
34	Brice Turang MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 1	--Fangorn	10.4%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 825 avg 3 books
35	Andrew Vaughn MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 5	--Fangorn	13.8%market	-1.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 600 avg 3 books
36	Ryan Mountcastle BAL Lineup pending	BAL vs TBRyan Pepiot · slot 7	--Fangorn	11.4%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 745 avg 3 books
37	Yandy Díaz TB Lineup pending	TB vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 2	--Fangorn	15.1%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
38	Ben Rice NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 6	--Fangorn	17.7%market	-1.5pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
39	Trent Grisham NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7	--Fangorn	17.3%market	-1.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 460 avg 3 books
40	William Contreras MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 3	--Fangorn	13.1%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 635 avg 3 books
41	Davis Schneider TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs MILColin Rea · slot 7	--Fangorn	15.6%market	-1.7pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
42	Cody Bellinger NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3	--Fangorn	17.4%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
43	Junior Caminero TB Lineup pending	TB vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 4	--Fangorn	24.1%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	DraftKings 300 avg 3 books
44	José Caballero NYY Lineup pending	NYY vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1	--Fangorn	9.1%market	-1.8pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 960 avg 3 books
45	Edgar Quero CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 6	--Fangorn	7.8%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	FanDuel 1125 avg 3 books
46	Isaac Paredes HOU Lineup pending	HOU vs SFKyle Harrison · slot 5	--Fangorn	17.2%market	-1.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.970xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
47	Vinnie Pasquantino KC Lineup pending	KC vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 3	--Fangorn	18.2%market	-2.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.974xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
48	George Springer TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs MILColin Rea · slot 1	--Fangorn	18.9%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
49	Jackson Chourio MIL Lineup pending	MIL vs TORJosé Berríos · slot 4	--Fangorn	16.1%market	-2.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
50	Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR Lineup pending	TOR vs MILColin Rea · slot 2	--Fangorn	17.7%market	-2.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.957xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
51	Kyle Teel CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 2	--Fangorn	14.1%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
52	Chase Meidroth CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1	--Fangorn	8.0%market	-2.3pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
53	Andrew Benintendi CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4	--Fangorn	14.3%market	-2.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
54	Lenyn Sosa CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 7	--Fangorn	14.5%market	-3.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
55	Austin Hays CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5	--Fangorn	13.3%market	-3.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
56	Jacob Wilson ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 6	--Fangorn	10.3%market	-3.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 875 avg 3 books
57	Colson Montgomery CWS Lineup pending	CWS vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 3	--Fangorn	25.6%market	-3.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.905xHR pf	Pitcher-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
58	Austin Wynns ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 7	--Fangorn	12.3%market	-3.9pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 715 avg 3 books
59	Tyler Soderstrom ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 5	--Fangorn	16.3%market	-4.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
60	Lawrence Butler ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 4	--Fangorn	17.0%market	-4.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
61	Zack Gelof ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 9	--Fangorn	13.9%market	-4.4pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 620 avg 3 books
62	Chandler Simpson TB Lineup pending	TB vs BALCorbin Burnes · slot 1	--Fangorn	8.0%market	-4.6pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	1.061xHR pf	Hitter-Friendlyweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
63	Nick Kurtz ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 1	--Fangorn	28.2%market	-6.0pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 255 avg 3 books
64	Brent Rooker ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 2	--Fangorn	22.7%market	-6.1pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 340 avg 3 books
65	Shea Langeliers ATH Lineup pending	ATH vs SDDylan Cease · slot 3	--Fangorn	23.0%market	-6.2pp	P -- F -- V --	--pp	0.955xHR pf	Neutralweather	Low Damageform	BetMGM 335 avg 3 books

Top saved signals

5 value rows

01 Yordan AlvarezHOU vs SF · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 02 Tyler O'NeillBAL vs TB · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 03 Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY vs KC · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 04 Anthony SantanderTOR vs MIL · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp 05 Salvador PerezKC vs NYY · FanDuel

P --

F --

V --

0.0pp

Data context

0 sample flags

Status0roster/transaction rows

Lineups0confirmed starters

Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.